Shifting Spectrum Priorities: Who are the Winners and Losers? NCSL Spring Forum

Transcription

1 Shifting Spectrum Priorities: Who are the Winners and Losers? NCSL Spring Forum Communications, Financial Services and Interstate Commerce Committee Christopher Guttman-McCabe CTIA The Wireless Association Friday, April 15, 2011

2 Wireless Devices have Evolved to be Multifunction and Multiform

3 Beyond Telephones Making Wireless Devices Multi-Function Tools

4 Consumers increase consumption and demand Spectrum is available Applications & content are developed The Virtuous Cycle Advanced networks are developed and deployed Innovative devices are developed

5 Estimated Wireless Subscriber Connections Up More than 17 Million Year-Over-Year 350,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000, , ,825 1,230,855 2,069,441 3,508,944 5,283,055 7,557,148 11,032,753 16,009,461 24,134,421 33,758,661 44,042,992 55,312,293 69,209,321 86,047, ,478, ,374, ,766, ,721, ,140, ,896, ,040, ,395, ,333, ,646, ,859,674 Dec-10 Dec-09 Dec-08 Dec-07 Dec-06 Dec-05 Dec-04 Dec-03 Dec-02 Dec-01 Dec-00 Dec-99 Dec-98 Dec-97 Dec-96 Dec-95 Dec-94 Dec-93 Dec-92 Dec-91 Dec-90 Dec-89 Dec-88 Dec-87 Dec-86 Dec-85 Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey

6 Billions of MOUs / Messages Minutes and Messages as a Measures of Wireless Use Minutes and Messages as a Measure of Wireless Usage 5,000 4,500 4,000 Excludes traffic generated by web-browsing, game-play, and content upload / downloads ,500 3, ,563 2,052 2,500 2,000 1, ,005 1, ,495 1,798 2,119 2,203 2,275 2, MOUs Text Messages MMS Messages Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey

7 Growing Numbers of App Offerings 900, , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 60, ,993 0 May 2009 September 2009 April 2010 October 2010 December 2010 March 2011 Sources: Androlib.com, Distimo, 148apps.biz, multiple app stores, CTIA Research

8 Wireless Data Demand Jan. Dec Billion MB % from 2009

9 Wireless Data Traffic 2 times the total data in the Library of Congress transmitted every hour, every day!

10 Total Monthly Terabytes North American Mobile Data Traffic Will Grow 20 Times from 2010 to ,200,000 1,000, , , , , , , , ,000 48, , Source: Cisco Systems Visual Networking Index, 2011

11 Mobile Data Projections Coda Research Number of wireless internet users will grow from 84 million to nearly 160 million by An estimated 98% of mobile web traffic will come from smartphone users. Cisco Systems North American mobile data traffic will grow almost 20 times from 2010 to Informa Telecoms & Media Group Smartphone users are expected to more than double from 90 million in 2010 to more than 211 million in Today the average smartphone user accounts for 11 times more traffic than the average nonsmartphone user. Yankee Group Mobile data traffic will grow 23 times from 2009 to 2014.

12 Mobile Data Projections Source: FCC OBI Mobile Broadband: The Benefits of Additional Spectrum, Oct. 2010

13 USA Japan Germany U.K. France Italy Canada Spain S. Korea Mexico Subscribers** 297.3m 116.4m 107.1m 75.3m 61.5m 90.0m 24.3m 55.5m 50.2m 88.4m Average Consumers Minutes of Use per Month** Average Revenue per Minute A Measure of the Effective Price per Voice Minute** Top Two Carriers Percentage of the Total Market** Efficient Use of Spectrum -- Subscribers Served per MHz of Spectrum Allocated $0.04 $0.22 $0.11 $0.10 $0.13 $0.12 $0.11 $0.16 $0.08 $ % 76.6% 65.9% 66.2% 82.6% 68.1% 66.5% 74.3% 82.2% 91.9% 726, , , , , , , , , ,800 Spectrum Assigned for Commercial Wireless Use MHz* 347 MHz 615 MHz MHz 380 MHz MHz 205 MHz 358 MHz 290 MHz 210 MHz Potentially Usable Spectrum/In the Pipeline*** 50 MHz 400 MHz Recently auctioned 350 MHz 355 MHz 250 MHz 262 MHz 260 MHz 262 MHz 140 MHz 30 MHz *Figure includes AWS-1, 700 MHz spectrum not yet in use and 55.5 MHz of spectrum at 2.5 GHz. ** Glen Campbell, et al., Global Wireless Matrix 4Q10, Merrill Lynch, Dec. 23, 2010, at Tables 1-2.

14 The FCC on Over-The-Air versus Multichannel Video

15 Facts Wireless usage is exploding. Wireless use is evolving. Carriers are incorporating unlicensed into their business models. Carriers are pursuing efficiency-enhancing technologies. Carriers spent $33 billion at the last two auctions. We are behind Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Canada, Spain and South Korea in identifying spectrum. Over-the-air broadcast viewership continues to decline. There are significant spectrum resources that have been allocated to the broadcasters that are not being used at all. In the D.C. market there are 18 full power stations, 3 class A low power, and 7 LPTV stations. That is 114 MHz of spectrum unused in the DC market.

16 Final Fact We need to get spectrum to market. We need to get past the debate about whether spectrum is needed, and move toward what do the broadcasters need as part of the process and how do we implement incentive auction legislation.