Overview. Robert C. Atkinson Director of Policy Research Columbia Institute for Tele-Information (CITI) Oct. 19, ILECS Are Losing Lines

Transcription

1 The State of Telecom 27 Overview Robert C. Atkinson Director of Policy Research Columbia Institute for Tele-Information (CITI) Oct. 19, 27 ILECS Are Losing Lines ILEC Lines (Millions) Source: FCC, Trends in Telephone Service, February 27 1

2 Interstate Switched Access Minutes for ILECs (Billions of Minutes) Source: FCC, Trends in Telephone Service 27, Chart 1.1 Avg. Rev./Minute for Interstate Toll Calls Source: FCC, Reference Book of Rates, Price Indices, and Household Expenditures for Telephone Service 27, Table

3 International Telephone Service (Billed Revenues Per Minute and Per Call) Source: FCC, Trend in Telephone Service 27, Chart 6.1 US Telecommunications Services Revenue Telecommunications Industry Revenue (Millions$) (Form 499-A filers: local, long distance and wireless telephony services regulated by FCC) 3 299,828* Source: FCC, Telecommunications Industry Revenues, Table 1, June 27 * 26 figure is preliminary 3

4 Toll Revenues ($ Billions) Source: FCC, Trends in Telephone Service 27, Chart 9.1 CLECs End-User Switched Access Lines (Thousands) Jun-6 Total CLEC Resold UNEs CLEC Owned Source: FCC, Trends in Telephone Service 27, Table 8.3 4

5 Source: FCC Wireless Competition Bureau, 11 th Annual CMRS Competition Report to Congress, Sept. 26 Source: FCC Wireless Competition Bureau, 11 th Annual CMRS Competition Report to Congress, Sept. 26 5

6 Source: FCC Wireless Competition Bureau, 11 th Annual CMRS Competition Report to Congress, Sept. 26 End User Spending Trends End-User Telecommunicatons Revenue, % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Local Service Wireless Service Toll Service Source: FCC, Telecommunications Industry Revenues, June 27 6

7 Wireless vs. Wireline Growth Personal Consumption Expenditures for Telephone Service ($ Billions) Source: FCC, Trends in Telephone Service 27, Chart 3.1 US High Speed Services Revenue Trend, US High Speed Services Revenue ($Billions) Source: TIA, 27 7

8 Advanced Services Lines Source: FCC, High-Speed Services for Internet Access: Status as of June 3, 26 (Jan. 27), Chart 3 Advanced Services Lines by Technology (as of June 3, 26) Source: FCC, High-Speed Services for Internet Access: Status as of June 3, 26 (Jan. 27), Chart 4 8

9 Top 1 Internet Access Providers (2Q7) Rank ISP Subscribers (Millions) 1 AT&T (SBC, BS, AT&T) (DSL, plus U-verse and satellite) 2 Comcast (cable broadband) 3 America Online(Time Warner) (all US AOL brand accounts) 4 Verizon (FiOS and DSL) 5 Road Runner (Time Warner) (cable broadband) 6 EarthLink (DSL, cable,satellite,plc, web hosting) 7 Charter (cable broadband) 8 Qwest (DSL only) 9 United Online (counting paid access only) 1 Cablevision (cable broadband) 17 (17.2%) 12.1 (12.2%) 2 Comcast (12.%) 7.4 (7.5%) 7.3 (7.4%) 5.3 (5.4%) 2.5 (2.5%) 7 Ch t (2.3%) 2.2 (2.2%) 2.1 (2.1%) Note 1: Total Subs= 98,777, Note 2: Top 5 = 55.9% Top 1 = 7.3% Note 3: Privately held Cox Cable estimated to have 3.5 million broadband subs, ranking 7th Source: ISP-Planet, 16 July 27, Multichannel Video Households (millions) Source: Kagan Research; NCTA, 27 9

10 MVPD Technologies Shares of Market 1% 8% 6% % % % Cable DBS Other Source: FCC, 27 Normalized Price Cable Rates and the CPI % Cable $ Cable Price (basic-plus-expanded basic) CPI Cable 25 $43.4 8% 6% 4% 2% % % Source: FCC, Report on Cable Industry Prices, MM Docket No , rel. Dec. 27, 26 at 4 1

11 US Cable Total Revenue Cable Total Revenue ($billion) Source: NCTA, 27 Normalized Price Chairman Kevin J. Martin Rates for Communications Services ( ) Cable 1995 $22.37 Cable CPI Telephone Services Land-line Interstate Land-line Intrastate Wireless Avg Rev/Min Wireless Cable 25 $43.4 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2%.6-4%.4-6% Year Source: FCC -8% The price for every service the Commission regulates has decreased except for cable. For instance, the average rate for wireless service has plummeted 8% and average interstate telephony rates have decreased almost 4%...In contrast, cable prices alone have increased, and they have risen more than 9%. Source: Testimony of FCC Chairman, Report on Cable Industry Prices, December 27, 26 11

12 Telecom Employment Trends Average Number of Employees in Telecommunications Industry (Thousands) Telecommunications Wireless Telecom Carriers Wired Telecom Carriers Cable & Other Program Distribution Source: FCC, Trends in Telephone Service, February 27, Chart 5.1; 26 data from Morgan Stanley, 24 May 27 Telecommunications Industry Measured in Output per Hour Wired Carriers Wireless Carriers Source: FCC, Trends in Telephone Service, February 27, Chart

13 US Carriers Purchases of Telecom Network Equipment (Billions $) Source: TIA Industry Playbook 27 Universal Service High Cost High Cost Fund Payments ($M) Percent of High Cost Support Paid to Competitive ETCs Source: FCC, Trends in telephone Service 27, Charts 19.3 and

14 Who Pays for Universal Service? Source: FCC, Telecommunications Industry Revenues, Chart 2, June 27 Telecommunications Patents Source: FCC, Trends in Telephone Service 27, Chart 17.1 based on U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, Patent Counts by Class by Year, January December 25, Telecommunications Classes 37, 375, 379 and 455, (September 26), 14

15 Telecommunication Equipment Exports ($US millions) Source: OECD Communications Outlook 27, Last access on October 17, 27 via Telecommunication Equipment Imports ($ US millions) Source: OECD Communications Outlook 27, Last access on October 17, 27 via 15