Trends in traffic and tariffs in Europe

Transcription

1 Trends in traffic and tariffs in Europe Regional Seminar on New Trends in Tariff Policies for CEE Countries & CIS Bratislava, Slovakia September, 2001 P. G. TOURE (ITU) The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership.

2 1' A Mobile Revolution Fixed Lines vs. Mobile Users, worldwide, Million 1'400 Mobile Users 1'200 Fixed Lines Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.

3 The changing pie: Global telecom service revenue, 1998 Other (incl. Internet, leased lines, telex), 10.6% Mobile service revenues, 21.2% Domestic fixedline revenues, 59.2% International revenues, 8.8% 1998 Telecom service revenue. Total = US$724b Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1999: Mobile cellular (forthcoming)

4 Projection of revenue growth (US$bn) Service revenue (US$ bn) 1000 Source: ITU Other: Data, Internet, Leased lines, telex, etc Domestic Telephone/fax Actual Int'l Projected Mobile

5 Internet users, millions Annual rate of change 109% Change % 67% 90 66% % 35% Source: ITU

6 Inter-regional regional Internet connectivity 0.4 Gbit/s Asia / Pacific 18 Gbit/s 3 Gbit /s Latin America USA / Canada 0.5 Gbit/s 56 Gbit/s Africa 0.2 Gbit /s Europe Note: Gbit/s = Gigabits (1 000 Mb) per second. 0.1 Gbit/s Source: ITU adapted from TeleGeography.

7 The state of the market Increasing competition Around two-thirds of telecom subscribers now have a choice of operator More than 99 per cent of mobile and Internet subscribers now have a choice of operator Dominantly private-ownership 19 out of top 20 top public telecom operators are partially or fully private-owned Of the top 20 mobile operators, 16 are fullyprivate, 3 are partially private, 1 is state-owned Independent regulators There are currently 89 independent regulators (only 12 in 1990)

8 Percentage of outgoing international traffic open to competition 35% 46% 74% 85% Monopoly Competition Number of countries permitting more than one operator for international telephony Note: Analysis is based on WTO Basic Telecommunications Commitments and thus presents a minimum level of traffic likely to be open to competitive service provision. Source: ITU, WTO.

9 Ownership status of the incumbent, 2001 Countries Private State-owned Sep.01 Source: ITU Telecommunication Regulatory Database.

10 Regulatory Agencies World (cumulative), sept.01 Source: ITU Telecommunication Regulatory Database.

11 Privatizations by Region 2001 Total countries: 101 Europe 33% Africa 15% Americas 24% Asia-Pacific 20% Arab States 8% Source: ITU Telecommunication Regulatory Database.

12 100% 90% Digital divide = Telecoms divide User distribution, by income group, Jan % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 280 million 82 % Internet users 490 million 69 % Mobile users 912 million 58 % Telephone lines Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database. 6 billion 15 % Population High income Upper-mid income Lower-mid income Low income

13 Slovenia Slovak Republic Poland Hungary Estonia Czech Republic Croatia Yugoslavia TFYR Macedonia Russia Romania Lithuania Latvia Kazakhstan Bulgaria Bosnia Belarus Albania zuzbekistan zukraine zazerbaijan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Moldova Kyrgyzstan Georgia Armenia GDP category

14 CEE & CIS versus WORLD lines 10.00% 5.00% population 0.00% revenues gdp CEE&CIS / WORLD

15 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% High Up-mid Low-mid Low %Population %GDP RevLine/GDPCapita %lines %revenues

16 Low High 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Up-mid Low-mid Rev/GDP Rev/GDP weighted

17 Revenues Per Line / GDP per Capita 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% High Low 10.00% 0.00% Up-mid Low-mid World CEE&CIS

18 Revenues / GDP Low 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% High Up-mid Low-mid World CEE&CIS

19 The digital divide is shrinking, but also shifting Share of low and lower-middle income countries in: Telephone main lines Jan Jan % 28% 5% 14% Mobile subscribers 1.1% 7.6% Estimated Internet Users Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.

20 Long distance market share % share of long distance calls 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% NCCs (Japan) Clear (NZ) Optus (Aust.) As competitors gain market share... 10% 5% 0% Long distance prices Index, 1993= Japan New Zealand Australia 90 Long distance prices come down Source: ITU Asia-Pacific Telecommunication Indicators, 1997.

21 Rebalancing in action (1): Iceland Telecom, price of 3 minute, peak-rate call, includ. tax Local Medium Long distance Jan- 88 Jul- 88 Source: Iceland Telecom, OECD. Jul- 89 Nov- 90 Oct- 91 Feb- 92 Sep- 93 Jun- 94 Aug- 95 Dec Nov Nov- 97

22 Rebalancing in action (2): SwissCom, price per minute of local call and call to US 74 Swiss call prices. US cents per minute Source: ITU. Call to USA 43 Local call

23 Rebalancing in action (3): Trends in price per minute of an international call to USA Average retail price of one minute call to USA. US$ $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Mark-up Source: ITU adapted from FCC and national data (34 countries). Forecast $0.50 $0.00 Settlement

24 Slovenia Hungary Estonia Czech Republic Croatia Yugoslavia TFYR Macedonia Slovak Republic Russia Poland Lithuania Latvia Bulgaria Belarus zukraine Romania Moldova Kazakhstan Georgia Armenia zuzbekistan zazerbaijan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Bosnia Tajikistan Albania Teledensity category

25 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Cat1 Cat2 Cat3 Cat4 Cat5 Cat6 Cat7 %lines %revenues %Population %GDP RevLine/GDPCapita

26 Cat6 Cat7 Cat1 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Cat2 Cat3 Cat5 Cat4 Rev/GDP

27 Revenues Per Line / GDP per Capita 50% Cat1 Cat6 Cat7 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cat2 Cat3 Cat5 Cat4 World CEE&CIS Radar 3

28 Revenues / GDP Cat6 Cat7 3.00% Cat1 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Cat2 Cat3 Cat5 Cat4 World CEE&CIS