Handheld Market Enters a New Phase: Multimedia

Transcription

1 Handheld Market Enters a New Phase: Multimedia A white paper by Jon Peddie Research 4 Saint Gabrielle Court Tiburon, CA

2 Table of Contents Handheld market enters a new phase... 1 A growth market... 1 The handheld market... 2 Color screens were the inflection point... 3 Multimedia on handhelds... 3 Not a miniature PC D on a handheld is hot... 5 A common API and buses needed... 6 Multimedia acceleration market... 7 Diverse almost chaotic market... 7 Table of Figures Figure 1: Multimedia handsets vs. total handset market... 2 Figure 2: Handheld devices market... 3 Figure 3: Functions found in a multimedia mobile phone... 4 Figure 4: Market share of phone segments... 7 Page i of 2

3 Handheld market enters a new phase A handheld device is anything that runs primarily on batteries, and can in general fit in a pocket or purse. Exceptions to this definition might be media players, handheld game consoles, and cameras (too large to fit in a pocket), and of course there are exceptions to the exceptions such as devices that do fit in a pocket or purse Multimedia, for this paper consists of audio of MP3 quality or better, imaging (photos), video, 3D games, and associated applications like GPS. A growth market Everyone is predicting the continued growth of handsets and PDAs but it will take new capabilities to bring new customers into the market and get existing customers to buy new phones. Shipments will be strong but not evenly across the main segments or geographically as co-processor based and new powerful SoCs based devices are put into the market. The multimedia phone is just taking off and that segment is showing the greatest growth. Page 1 of 3

4 800 Millions of units shipped worldwide per year Jon Peddie Research 600 Multimedia phones: CAGR 79% TOTAL Mobile phones: CAGR 8% Figure 1: Multimedia handsets vs. total handset market However, it won t be an easy ride for everyone. Initially handset suppliers of multimedia phones will use multimedia accelerator coprocessors to satisfy time to market demands. Later, as soon as the next generation for some, they will switch to system on a chip (SoC) designs which have the multimedia acceleration hardware inside. This will cause a consolidation of the market resulting in business failures and acquisitions as the technology is assimilated by the bigger players the report states. The handheld market As mentioned earlier our definition of a handheld device is anything that is primarily battery powered and can fit (or almost fit) in a pocket or purse. That includes mobile phones, PDAs, handheld game consoles, mobile media players, and digital cameras. The following chart provides an overview of the relative size and growth of most of the handheld devices. Page 2 of 4

5 Millions of units shipped worldwide per year Jon Peddie Research PDAs: CAGR 1% DSCs: CAGR 38% Total handheld game machines 70% Mobile phones: CAGR 10% Figure 2: Handheld devices market As the data shows, the mobile phone is the overwhelmingly the largest segment in the universe in terms of units shipped and shipping, nothing comes even close to it. Naturally this is the market most of the semiconductor and content developers are aiming at. However, many are going to disappointed and have to go find other areas to offer their services and products. Color screens were the inflection point From 2001 to 2003The demand for color displays and camera phones fueled the surge in sales of new mobile handsets and set the stage for the new multimedia phone. it is estimated that by percent of all handset shipments will have color screens. Multimedia on handhelds Multimedia is just what its name implies multiple sources of media that can be delivered to and presented on a Page 3 of 5

6 handheld device. The multimedia categories include, but are not limited to: Audio Graphics (and games) Imaging TV Video Other functions such as GPS, which employ graphics and audio, can also be considered a multimedia application and usually requires a plug-in receiver. The range of functions and applications of the mobile phone are amazing, and the following diagram illustrates a few of the more popular capabilities. Figure 3: Functions found in a multimedia mobile phone Source: Qualcomm Multimedia functions on a handheld device are most often implemented in software and usually on the baseband processor. However imaging and video capture requires a hardware sensor, while powerful 3D and video applications like games require a co-processor. The graphics processor can also be built into the baseband or application processor and/or into a SoC, and is referred to as a media processor. Page 4 of 6

7 The handheld market seems very promising for companies coming from the maturing computer industry. However, entering the handheld market at the moment represents a step back to the future. There is undeniable demand for new products and new features. There is also tension between the various form factors being developed. Not a miniature PC The evolving handheld market is not exactly like the early days of the PC market. For one thing the architecture is not like a PC, and it s far from open. The only upgradeable or changeable part may be the memory via a SIM card and then that s only in the higher-end units. There is no single dominant OS, I/O connectors, or power supply. Economy of scale comes only from the commodity parts. However, a slight bit of success in any segment generates millions of units and so even the proprietary parts enjoy some degree of economy of scale. It is an industry ripe for take over and consolidation. 3D on a handheld is hot The first uses of graphics on handhelds came in the form of GUIs. Prior to the introduction of color screens phones and PDAs had utilitarian text-based UIs. The early 2D games and imitation 3D images using bitblt and alpha plane techniques came with color screens. True 3D accelerators were first shipped in 2004 in the form of expanded (by IP) baseband processors, and baseband processors with external co-processors for multimedia. A recent example of a 3D application getting attention is Sony Ericsson s K500 Camera Phones, which will feature Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Pandora Tomorrow, in 3D. Using the Java 2.0 and Mascot Capsule Engine Micro3D Edition from HI Corp graphics platform the 1.9 inch 65K TFT color screen and MultiAction joystick are combined with 12MB internal memory that can store up to 170 2D or 45 3D games. (The original Java 1.0 version of Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell was downloaded more than a million times worldwide and has been a huge success across all major gaming platforms, and the companies expect as much of its follow-up.). Page 5 of 7

8 But standards are needed to enable this market s development. Are handheld the new frontier of graphics? Perhaps. Certainly more opportunity abounds as the big players grapple with proprietary versus open approaches and Java programmers forge ahead programming games. Even with the limited screen size, users seem eager to get game enabled handhelds. Already there are a several 3D (or at least 3D-like) games and companies like Fathammer, In- Fusio, and IdeaWorks3D are offering tool kits for worldclass games. Games will also employ web connectivity for multi-user activities, as well as IR and Bluetooth links for local and nearby game play. The winners in the battle for this new market will be the visionaries can see the new possibilities. For example some of the games being developed are multi-player games that take advantage of the players mobility and the phones GPS and tracking capabilities. Games on handhelds promise to make the most of dead time. In this they have an advantage over computers because they can be taken and used anywhere. Already simple 2D games occupy people who are stuck waiting some place or taking trains, planes, long car trips, etc. It is assumed that games and game development for handhelds will be a very big business, but in these early stages the market is very fragmented. It is fragmented between software technologies as well as hardware technologies. A common API and buses needed OpenGL ES is a free, lightweight API for 2D/3D graphics capabilities on mobile & handheld devices, appliances and embedded displays. Based on well-defined subset profiles of OpenGL it enables the smallest interface between software and hardware acceleration. The 1.0 specification includes the Common/Common-Lite renderer and EGL bindings to the native platform window system. Over the years the Java Community and the OpenGL communities have developed methods to work together and the specifications are not at all mutually exclusive, but rather complementary. Page 6 of 8

9 Multimedia acceleration market A high-performance multimedia phone will have a camera and/or or a media accelerator (3D, imaging, video, etc.). No basic multimedia phone will have a specific media accelerator other than in software. The following chart shows the total shipments and forecast for multimedia phones with color screens, and the percentage of those phones with a camera and/or media accelerator. (Note there is overlap in the chart i.e., color screen phones are one view and encompassed within multimedia phones.) Millions of units shipped worldwide per year Jon Peddie Research Basic color screen phones: CAGR 72% Basic MM phones: CAGR 68% High-performance MM: CAGR 181% Basic phones: CAGR -15% TOTAL Mobile phones: CAGR 10% Figure 4: Market share of phone segments As the data shows, the high-performance multimedia phone with 3D acceleration is going to take off. Diverse almost chaotic market Page 7 of 9

10 However, the market is very diverse with dozens of semiconductor suppliers of the baseband, application, coprocessor, and SoCs not to mention memory and all the other miscellaneous semiconductors like clocks, timers, power regulators, etc. The telcos buy, and in some cases design, the phone, the handset and PDA. OEMs mainly design the handhelds, the ODMs build the handhelds, and the semiconductor suppliers, mostly fabs, build the components. It is a bit chaotic with multiple paths of supply and various value-chains, and all of them are being driven by the enormity of the market approaching 600 million new units a year worldwide. That s right, Chief; this report is what we ve been looking for This white paper was excerpted from Jon Peddie Research s report, Handheld Multimedia Devices. Chester Gold The information for this white paper came from Jon Peddie Research s Market report, Multimedia Devices in Handhelds. Page 8 of 10

11 4 Saint Gabrielle Court Tiburon, California fax ORDER FORM JPR s Handheld Multimedia Devices is a study on the market, the players, and technical issues, in every type of consumer handheld device. The study is a supply-side report primarily focused on drive shipments and subsequently on products with multimedia semiconductors in them. There is also a discussion on the history of the marker, the media, the end-user software, and the associated technology. There is also a look into the future both in market forecasts and in technology. The Handheld Multimedia Devices report is supplied electronically in printable PDF form and sells for $2, For 60 days there is a special one-time offer of a 15% discount to Khronos members, making the price just $2, This offer is not available through our on-line store. Name Company Address City, State, Postal code, Country Phone Fax PO Date Credit Card Exp Signature Tax ID number Bank: `Wells Fargo Bank, 1550 Tiburon Blvd, Tiburon, CA, Bank Account Number: Routing Number: Swift Code: WFBIUS6S Page 9 of 11