Huawei: China's Leading Equipment Vendor Returns to Growth
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1 Research Brief Huawei: China's Leading Equipment Vendor Returns to Growth Abstract: Huawei has turned in a strong performance during the first half of The second half of the year could be even better. By Andrew Chetham, Marcus Sigurdsson and Bertrand Bidaud Recommendations Service and support issues are likely to be the key inhibitors to Huawei's move outside its main international markets, so acknowledging the risk that the company could spread itself too thin, Huawei should consider partnerships with other vendors to cut the costs of a move into new markets. Huawei should focus on further establishing its brand overseas. Publication Date:29 July 2003
2 2 Huawei: China's Leading Equipment Vendor Returns to Growth Introduction Huawei Technologies is China's best-known telecom equipment vendor, with a growing international presence. The company came to prominence riding on the back of China's rapidly expanding telecom market in the late 1990s. But in 2002, as spending by Chinese carriers was dramatically pulled back, Huawei's growth stumbled, and its revenue declined. Huawei is a private company, but its sales figures for the first half of 2003 were recently disclosed to Gartner, and results indicate the company is on track to bounce back with a strong showing in the first six months of the year. The Numbers Behind the Strong 1H03 Figure 1 Share of International Business Huawei's contract value of orders during the first half of 2003 totaled 12.9 billion renminbi (about US$1.57 billion). Contract value growth for the first half of 2003, compared with the first half of 2002, was as follows: 24 percent for the domestic Chinese market 33 percent for the company as a whole International contract value for the first half of this year was US$350 million, compared with US$552 for the entire year in 2002 (see Figure 1 for the evolution of international revenue). Percent H Source: Gartner Dataquest (July 2003) 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 29 July 2003
3 3 For all of 2003, Huawei is expecting a contract value figure of 21.5 billion renminbi (US$2.62 billion) for the domestic market and US$1 billion for the international market. Three areas are primarily driving the company's growth: DSL Software and services Data communications A big boost to Huawei's DSL revenue came from a recent large order of more than 1 million DSL ports from China Telecom (see "Huawei and Alcatel Shanghai Bell Pick Up China DSL Orders," TELC-WW-DA-0169). The value of this order is included in Huawei's first-half contract revenue. Year-on-year segment growth in contracted sales was as follows: Data communications (routers, switches, access servers) 71 percent increase Multimedia 63 percent increase (but from a small base) Service and software 32 percent increase Fixed networks (including DSL) 31 percent increase Optical 10 percent increase Wireless 7 percent decrease Huawei also confirmed that its two largest international markets were Russia and Thailand. The company said it made more than US$100 million in sales in each region during Outlook for the Rest of 2003 Huawei's 2002 revenue was 22 billion renminbi (US$2.68 billion). For 2003, the company is forecasting contract value revenue of 30 billion renminbi (US$3.66 billion), about 20 percent higher. Given that contract value in the first half of 2003 was about 12.9 billion renminbi (US$1.57 billion), this means Huawei believes its second-half contract value can reach 17.1 billion renminbi (US$2.07 billion), which is about 32 percent higher. This forecast seems consistent with Gartner Dataquest's view that China is a highly cyclical market for equipment purchasing. The first quarter of the year is generally the weakest quarter, followed by the second quarter. The majority of sales in China happen in the second half of the year. One of the main drivers in the second half of this year will continue to be DSL, with wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) presenting opportunities potentially from the first half of next year onward Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 29 July 2003
4 4 Huawei: China's Leading Equipment Vendor Returns to Growth Looking to Wireless China Netcom is expected to announce an order of 1.2 million to 1.5 million DSL lines, for which Huawei is in the running. In addition, we believe China Telecom may hold another round of bidding for new DSL orders at the end of the year. Gartner Dataquest expects that third-generation (3G) licenses in China will be issued during the first half of Huawei has not deployed a commercial 3G network, but it may be well-positioned for a slice of China Mobile's 3G infrastructure as a result of the recent trials. Huawei will soon enter the wireless handset market. The first products, to be launched in August, will be handsets for the popular "Little Smart" services based on Personal HandyPhone System (PHS) technology. Further launches targeting other technologies are also promised. Huawei is still a relatively small player in China's wireless sector. It does report some success with infill networks for China Unicom, although as a percentage of Unicom's total cellular infrastructure spend, these are small. In addition to the PHS handsets, Huawei intends to offer a range of handsets for Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) and WCDMA. The high-end handsets will come from its Shanghai-based joint venture (with Matsushita and NEC) called Cosmobic Technology. Next-Generation Network Spending Prospects Huawei believes next-generation network (NGN) spending is not likely to make a big impact in China for the next two years. However, it is working with China Netcom on "greenfield" projects, places where Netcom lacks its own legacy infrastructure but wants to begin offering services in competition with China Telecom. Huawei has also completed an NGN project for a satellite-based voice network for China Satellite Communications (ChinaSat) covering pay phones in about 170 cities. Partnership Strategy Huawei has developed new partnership agreements with other telecom equipment vendors the highest-profile and far-reaching deal being its agreement with 3Com to set up a new joint-venture company. The joint venture targeting enterprise networking will go live in September and be primarily based in Hangzhou, near Shanghai, staffed by 1,200 people from Huawei and 3Com. Huawei is the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and will be the distributor in China and Japan, while 3Com will take the sales and marketing lead in the rest of the world. Huawei initially will own 51 percent of the joint venture, but 3Com has the option of buying another 2 percent that will give it majority ownership during the next two years Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 29 July 2003
5 Huawei says other partnerships will emerge but that there is no particular timeline and these will likely be more oriented toward its carrier business. However, with a presence in more than 40 international markets, Huawei believes selling to carriers is one of its core strengths and has the resourcestodoit. 5 Dataquest Perspective Huawei's first-half financials put it among a select few global vendors enjoying growth. Its international performance vindicates its low-price strategy and targeting of primarily developing markets. It also shows that Huawei management has reacted quickly to a disappointing Despite its growth of international sales, Huawei remains focused on and exposed to the Chinese market. Gartner Dataquest believes that the strategy focusing on emerging markets will remain and help establish Huawei internationally, but eventually partnerships will be needed to penetrate mature markets because Huawei lacks brand equity and the local resources to compete with local incumbents. Huawei needs to proceed using this solid two-track approach: Exploit its understanding of and positioning in the Chinese market to gain market share from other vendors. Develop its branding in overseas markets and position itself to deliver service and support in those markets. The main risk to the current strategy is spreading its resources too thinly across an extremely wide range of products and countries. Service and support to carriers will put a strain on resources. It is unlikely that Huawei can offer it on a level competitive with the larger multinational vendors, such as Ericsson, Nokia and Motorola. Huawei has sometimes customized equipment for carriers such as AIS in Thailand but carrying this sort of tailored arrangement out elsewhere will put further strain on support and service if offered more regularly. A large part of Huawei's success comes from aggressive and sometimes costly market entries. Its main competitive advantage for entering developing markets is low price. To successfully become a player in the European and North American telecom markets, Huawei needs to develop a significant international services organization. Customer relations, understanding local markets and developing strong service organizations will be important factors in determining Huawei's international success as it has been in China. Gartner Dataquest believes Huawei should look for partnerships in the carrier segment just as it has done in the enterprise segment Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 29 July 2003
6 6 Huawei: China's Leading Equipment Vendor Returns to Growth Note: The exchange rate used in this document is 8.2 renminbi per one U.S. dollar. Key Issue Who are the key startup companies whose offerings will create disruptions in the market? This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: TELC-WW-DP-0572 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice
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