CGN in Europe? An Analytical Approach to Policymaking

Transcription

1 CGN in Europe? An Analytical Approach to Policymaking

2 What Is This About Statistical data is only useful within a context Most of the value comes by combining data sources Need to understand some of the inner mechanisms Going to give an example using CGN Disclaimer: these are all estimates and predictions There is a significant error margin: Not every RIPE NCC member offers Internet access Enterprise, SME and other business are ignored There is always overhead in IPv4 pool management 2

3 Rule #1: You can only connect to the Internet if you have an IP address 3

4 Rule #2: If you can t have your own IP address, you need to share one 4

5 Network Address Translation 1 unique IPv4 address Facebook Youtube Phone is talking to Facebook Computer is talking to Youtube 5

6 Carrier Grade NAT (CGN) ISP Internet Cust A is on Youtube Cust B is browsing Amazon Cust B is posting a selfie.. CGN 1 unique IPv4 address Facebook Youtube Facebook Youtube Customer A Customer B Customer C Customer D 6

7 Do you have enough addresses for every customer? 7

8 1 magic number 8

9 Internet Registry Structure Focussed on networks Usually a network operator (ISP) is a member Operationally, networks are defined by their ASN Networks are sized by number of end points Usually the number of subscribers or websites Number of IP addresses proportional to size Needs based allocation fundamental in policy 9

10 To receive traffic, you must announce the IP address ranges in the global routing table 10

11 Example: Magyar Telekom (Hungary) Size: 1,4 million IPv4 addresses Source: RIPEstat 11

12 How Big Is Magyar Telekom? 1 million fixed Broadband Growing 4.3% over last 12 months 5,4 million mobile users Growing 1,9% over last 12 months Caveat: maybe not all mobile subscribers have data Source: Magyar Telecom Plc, Q Interim Financial Report 12

13 High Level Analysis Magyar is reporting 6,4 million connections With only 1,4 million IPv4 addresses visible Likely scenario, common in market Fixed broadband to use regular IPv4 Mobile broadband uses CGN They are reporting growth How long is this still sustainable? How many customers need to share a single IP address? 13

14 A1/Telekom Austria Appears to be using three networks AS 1901 (former EUNET AT) Announcing 600k IPv4 addresses AS 8447 Announcing 2,3 million IPv4 addresses AS (former etel Austria) Announcing 74k IPv4 addresses 14

15 A1 Austria Telekom Group Q financial report 5,3 million mobile subscribers 900k reported as mobile broadband 3,4 million wireline RGUs (revenue generating unit) 1,5 million reported as fixed broadband Estimate between 2,4 and 6,8 million connections 3 million IPv4 addresses in the network Source: A1 Financial Report Q

16 Pressure on IPv4 is significant even for long established companies 16

17 Country Level taking a step back

18 IPv4 Addresses per Country 140,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 /8 RIPE NCC pool EE LU LV SI SK GR HU IE PT CZ AT DK FI PL BE SE ES NL IT FR DE GB Source: RIPE Database country attribute 18

19 IPv4 Space per Country SE FI EE IE NL DK LV GB BE LU DE PL CZ FR AT HU SK SI W N S E PT ES IT GR 19

20 LU Population Size SE FI EE LV IE NL DK GB BE DE PL CZ FR AT SI SK HU W N E PT ES IT GR S 20

21 80 60 IPv4 and Population FR IT GB DE Population PL ES SK AT HU SE PT CZ GR BE NL 5 IE FI DK 2 LV SI 1 LU EE 21

22 IPv4 and Population 140,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 EE LU LV SI SK GR HU IE PT CZ AT DK FI PL BE SE ES NL IT FR DE GB IPv4 spave available Population 22

23 IPv4 per Capita 3 NL SE 1/2 LU BE FI 2 GB DK 1/2 IE AT SI FR DE 1 CZ LV IT EE 1/2 SK GR PL HU PT ES 1 good 0 not so good 23

24 AT SK DK BE GR CZ SE ES NL IT population IPv4 available (millions) 24

25 Sizing the Market How many connections are there?

26 Number of Broadband Connections 100,000,000 87,500,000 75,000,000 62,500,000 50,000,000 37,500,000 25,000,000 12,500,000 LU SI EE LV SK IE HU GR DK FI PT AT CZ BE SE NL PL ES IT FR GB DE Fixed Mobile Source: OECD Broadband Portal (2016) 26

27 LU Connections SE FI EE LV IE NL DK GB BE DE PL CZ FR AT SI SK HU W N E PT ES IT GR S 27

28 Connections and IPv4 140,000, ,000,000 70,000,000 35,000,000 LU SI EE LV SK IE HU GR DK FI PT AT CZ BE SE NL PL ES IT FR GB DE Connections IPv4 28

29 Connections per IPv4 3 1/2 2 SE LU NL BE 1/2 1 FR IE AT DE DK SI FI GB EE PT IT CZ HU LV 1/2 SK ES PL GR 1 good 0 not so good 29

30 AT SK DK BE GR CZ SE ES NL IT population Connections IPv4 available (millions) 30

31 AT SK DK BE GR CZ SE ES NL IT population Connections IPv4 available (millions) 31

32 Connections and Population 100,000,000 87,500,000 75,000,000 62,500,000 50,000,000 37,500,000 25,000,000 12,500,000 LU SI EE LV SK IE HU GR DK FI PT AT CZ BE SE NL PL ES IT FR GB DE Connections Population 32

33 Peeking into the Future Exploring with Extrapolation

34 Ubiquitous Internet What if everybody gets an Internet connection You are likely to share the home (fixed) connection One fixed line per household Everybody gets a mobile phone (maybe two) Going to ignore some parts of the market: Enterprise and SME Machine-to-machine Datacentre and public/utility networks 34

35 Adding Market Coverage Data LU SI EE LV SK IE HU GR DK FI PT AT CZ BE SE NL PL ES IT FR GB DE Mobile* Fixed** * OECD 2016 ** based on number of households (UN data) 35

36 Adding Market Coverage Data EE IE HU DK FI AT CZ BE SE NL ES IT GB DE Mobile* Fixed** * OECD 2016 ** based on number of households (UN data) 36

37 What Can We Expect? Every household will get a fixed line Extrapolating current market to 100% penetration Number of households probably relatively stable Mobile between 146% and 122% peak Taking 125% as saturated for now Developments in M2M could be significant Impact of using 4G/5G to replace wireline unknown 37

38 Theoretical Saturated Market 120,000, ,000,000 90,000,000 75,000,000 60,000,000 45,000,000 30,000,000 15,000,000 AT BE CZ DE DK EE ES FI GB HU IE IT NL SE Fixed Fixed Max* Mobile Mobile Max** * 100% households ** 125% population 38

39 Max Connections per IPv4 3 1/2 2 1/2 SE NL BE DK FI GB 1 IE DE AT 1/2 0 ES EE IT CZ HU good 1 not so good 39

40 Current and Future 3 1/2 2 1/2 1 SE SE NL NL IE IE BE BE AT DE DE DK FI GB GB 1/2 0 ES ES AT EE EE IT IT CZ CZ HU HU good 1 not so good 40

41 Percentage of IPv6 3 1/2 2 SE NL 1/2 BE DK FI GB 1 IE DE AT EE IT 1/2 ES CZ HU 0 41

42 Soft Conclusions Many markets already have more connections than they have IP addresses available Which means that they are using CGN somewhere This situation is not expected to improve over time Some markets likely to fall below the threshold Introduction of address sharing should be expected Not sure CGN is driving IPv6 adoption No large pressure on IPv4 in Belgium 42

43 Is this useful? 43

44 Open Data is Important Data sources used in this Regional Internet Registry data (IPv4 and IPv6) Financial reporting information (company numbers) OECD Broadband portal (connections per country) UN stat (population, households) Manually processed APIs are missing or not standardised Not all data is current (households from 2011) 44

45 Questions?

46 Raw data (selection of EU/OECD member states) 46