TATA COMMUNICATIONS LTD (TCL)

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1 TATA COMMUNICATIONS LTD (TCL) NEUTRAL CMP: Rs Date: January 12, 2010 Key Ratios: Particulars FY09 FY10E FY11E OPM(%) PAT Margin(%) ROE(%) ROCE(%) P/BV(x) P/E(x) Key Data: Sector Telecom Face Value Rs wk. High/Low Rs /Rs Volume (2 wk. Avg.) 1,04,000 BSE Code V.S.R. Sastry Vice President Equity Research Desk vsrsastry@firstcallindiaequity.com Market Cap.: Rs mn. SYNOPSIS Tata Communications, a member of the $62.5 billion Tata Group, is a leading global provider of a new world of communications. The company also has large submarine capacity of over 20 terabits per second. Within India as well, the company has around 40,000 km of transmission network reaching 300 major towns. Direct-to-Home (DTH) service operator Tata Sky would add 3.5 million more subscribers by 2012 and focus on adding customer-oriented innovative applications. Tata Communications & China Telecom to build 500-km optical fiber cable network. During the quarter company has signed agreements to build a new cable system in Gulf. Tata Communications and sugar CRM join hands to provide on-demand CRM. NDTV selects Tata Communications CDN service for live streaming. The topline of the company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4% over FY08 to FY11E. Share Holding Pattern: Dr. V.V.L.N. Sastry Ph.D. Chief Research Officer drsastry@firstcallindia.com 1

2 Investment Highlights Result Updates (Q2 FY10) Tata Communications, a Tata Group Company today announced a fall of 68.26% in the net profit for the quarter ended Sep.30, During the quarter, the company reported a profit of Rs million as against profit of Rs million for the quarter ended Sep 30, In the same period, total income of the company was at Rs 13,001.9 million, a decline of 23.44% over the prior year period. Quarterly Results - Standalone (Rs in mn) As at Sep - 09 Sep - 08 %Change Net Sales (67.98) Net Profit (22.83) Basic EPS (67.83) During the quarter, the operating margin of the company increased to 27.52% as compared to 26.97% of corresponding quarter ended September Interest cost increased % to Rs million while depreciation cost rose 39.94% to Rs million over previous year period. To add 3.5mn more subscribers by 2012 Direct-to-Home (DTH) service operator Tata Sky would add 3.5 million more subscribers by 2012 and focus on adding customer-oriented innovative applications. Currently, company has 4.5 million subscribers and is aiming to achieve total subscriber base of 8 million by To build new cable system in Gulf Tata Communications has signed agreements with operators in the Middle East to build a new cable system for the region. The telecoms cable will connect the region to the world`s major business hubs through the company`s existing Tata Global Network. Join hands to provide on-demand CRM Tata Communications has signed a partnership agreement with Sugar CRM, a leading provider of commercial customer relationship management (CRM) software, to provide its award-winning CRM applications as the basis for Tata`s entry as a SaaS provider. Since the beginning of this year, Tata Communications and Sugar CRM have worked 2

3 closely together on a joint pilot program to build a CRM service that meets the needs of businesses in India. Extends connectivity into Australia Tata Communications will start delivering capacity into Australia via the privately owned Pipe Pacific 1 (PPC-1) cable system. PPC-1 is a new two-fiber-pair cable system connecting the US territory of Guam to Sydney. The cable system spans 6,900 km and can provide up to 2.56 terabits a second of capacity to the rapidly growing Australian market. NDTV selects Tata Comm s CDN service NDTV Convergence has chosen Tata Communications for its live-broad cast service, a high - quality flash based streaming service, to broadcast three national channels in India - two news channels and one business over the internet to a global audience. partners to offer security Tata Communications and Mahindra Special Services Group (MSSG) have signed a major security services agreement to leverage each others strength to offer a complete suite of security services to Indian enterprises to enable security of their information assets and data. Unveils secure internet solution Tata Communications launched its internet clean pipe solution for the small and medium business segments (SMEs).The solution will ensure clean internet traffic by eliminating malware, spam and virus without the customer having to incur capital expenditure on security hardware. Launch tier 1 internet PoP Tata Communications and Access Kenya Group, Kenya`s first publicly listed ICT company and leading corporate Internet service provider, have signed a partnership agreement to establish a Tier 1 Internet Point-of-Presence (PoP) for Tata Communications in Nairobi, Kenya. Arm to provide managed services Tata Communications has floated a subsidiary company, Tata Communications Banking Infra Solutions (TCBIL), to provide managed services for banks. 3

4 Launches More4Sure Tata Communications launches `More4Sure` offers, a bouquet of irresistible offers coupled with innovative tariff plans. With More4Sure offer, subscribers of any plan can get a free laptop on making advance rental payment of 36 months or a free Linksys Wi- Fi router on payment of 6 months advance rental. Launches new global mobile Tata Communications launches of its new high quality `mobile video telephony service`. This will offer mobile operators and international carrier customers a single point of access for all their voice service requirements including our Voice Termination Service (VTS Prime) and Mobile Direct. Segment Revenues (Rs. Mn) Global Voice Global Data 4

5 Others Company Profile Tata Communications Limited along with its global subsidiaries (Tata Communications) is a leading global provider of the new world of communications. The company leverages its Tata Global Network, vertical intelligence and leadership in emerging markets, to deliver valuedriven, globally managed solutions to the Fortune 1000 and mid-sized enterprises, service providers and consumers. The Tata Communications portfolio includes transmission, IP, converged voice, mobility, managed network connectivity, hosted data center, communications solutions and business transformation services to global and Indian enterprises & service providers as well as, broadband and content services to Indian consumers. The Tata Global Network encompasses one of the most advanced and largest submarine cable networks, a Tier-1 IP network, connectivity to more than 200 countries across 300 PoPs and more than one million square feet data center space. Tata Communications serves its customers from its offices in 80 cities in 40 countries worldwide. Tata Communications has a strategic investment in South African operator Neotel, providing the company with a strong anchor to build an African footprint. Tata Communications Ltd. is part of the $29 billion Tata Group; it is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India and its ADRs are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Global Industry Recognition Best Market Strategy: Global Wholesale Telecommunications Awards Most Innovative Managed Service: 2008 Telephony Innovation Award 5

6 Best Technology Innovation: 2008 Pilot House Award #1 Enterprise Data Services Provider in India: Frost & Sullivan Awards, 2008 Best Long Distance Operator; Best Internet & BB Services Operator: Tele.Net Awards 2008 Subsidiaries Directly held subsidiaries of the company are: Tata Communications International Pte Ltd (Formerly known as VSNL International Pte. Ltd.) VSNL Broadband Limited Tata Communications Transformation Services Limited (formerly known as VSNL Global Services Limited) VSNL Internet Services Ltd. (formerly known as DIL Internet Limited) VSNL SNOSPV Pte Ltd. Tata Communications Lanka Limited (formerly known as VSNL Lanka Ltd.) Tata Communications Services (America) Inc. (Formerly known as VSNL America Inc.) Business Areas The Company operates under three main business segments globally. They are. Business Areas Wholesale Voice Enterprise & Carrier Other Services 1. Wholesale Service Segment The Wholesale Voice segment provides international long distance and national long distance voice services. 6

7 2. Enterprise & Carrier Segment The Enterprise and Carrier Data segment offers corporate data transmission services, such as international private leased circuits, frame relay, Internet leased line circuits, and national private leased circuits. This segment provides IP networks and wholesale IP transit services to tier-2 ISPS, and regional carriers. It also offers mobile signaling services, such as signal conversion and managed roaming services; ethernet services; and Internet protocol and managed services, including Internet telephony, multi protocol label switching based virtual private networks, Internet access, managed hosting, collaboration and conferencing services, managed security services, and other professional services. 3. Other Services Segment The Other Services segment provides global roaming, Internet, virtual private network, and data centre services. This segment offers various Internet services, such as connectivity, messaging, Internet telephony, and a range of content services. Tata Communications serves the Fortune 1000 and mid-sized enterprises, service providers, and consumers. The company, formerly known as Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited, was founded in 1986 and is based in Mumbai, India. Tata Communications Limited is a part of the Tata Group. Services Offered: Enterprise Solutions Connectivity Services IP VPN Services Hybrid VNO Services Application-Aware Services Ethernet Services Internet Access Services Private Line Services Managed IT Infrastructure Services Collocation Services Managed Hosting Services Managed Storage Services Managed Application Services Audio and Web Conferencing Services Business Messaging & Collaboration Services Hosted Contact Center Services Managed Voice Services Managed Security Services CPE-Based Services Cloud-Based Services Professional Services Professional Services Outsourcing Service Provider Solutions IP Services Transit 7

8 Content India IP Transit (ILL) Voice Services Transport Access Services VoIP Link Mobile Direct Mobile Services Signaling Roaming M-Commerce Enterprise Mobility Retail Solutions Broadband Services Wi-Fi Services Net Telephony Global Roaming Coverage Mail Services Global Calling Cards True roots Peer Group Comparison Name of the company CMP(Rs.) (As on January 12, 2010) Market Cap. (Rs. Mn.) EPS (Rs.) P/E (x) P/BV (x) Dividend(%) Tata Communications Ltd Bharti Airtel Idea Cellular Reliance Communications Key Concerns The most important factor which restricts the company s revenue growth is the lack of end user relationship. Absence of a subscriber base is looking to be a major threat to the future growth of the company. The growth in traffic volumes is being an offset by the pricing pressure faced due to increased competition. 8

9 Financials 12 Months Ended Profit & Loss Account (Standalone) Value(Rs. in million) FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E Description 12m 12m 12m 12m Net Sales 32, , Other Income 1, , Total Income 34, , Expenditure -26, , Operating Profit 7, , Interest , Gross Profit 7, , Depreciation -3, , Profit before Tax 4, , Tax -1, , Profit after Tax 3, , Equity Capital 2, , , , Reserves 60, , , , Face Value Total No. of Shares EPS

10 Quarterly Ended Profit & Loss Account (Standalone) Value(Rs. in million) 31-Mar Jun Sep Dec-09E 3m 3m 3m 3m Description Net Sales Other Income Total Income 9, Expenditure -3, Operating Profit 5, Interest Gross Profit 5, Depreciation -1, , , , Profit before Tax 3, Tax Profit after Tax 3, Equity Capital 2, , , , Face Value Total No. of Shares EPS E=Estimated 10

11 Charts 1) Net Sales & PAT Chart 2) P/E Chart 3) EV/EBITDA Chart 4) P/BV Chart 11

12 1 Year Comparative Graph TATA COMMUNICATIONS BSE SENSEX Outlook and Conclusion At the current market price of Rs the stock is trading at a P/Ex of 70.63x for FY10E and 52.35x for FY11E. The EPS of the stock is expected to be at Rs.5.25 and Rs.7.09 for FY10E and FY11E respectively. On the basis of price to book value, the stock trades at 1.57x and 1.52x for FY10E and FY11E respectively. Direct-to-Home (DTH) service operator Tata Sky would add 3.5 million more subscribers by 2012 and focus on adding customer-oriented innovative applications. Tata Communications and China Telecom Corp will jointly build a 500-km optical fibre cable network between India and China over the next 12 months. Tata Communications has signed agreements with operators in the Middle East to build a new cable system for the region. Tata Communications and Mahindra Special Services Group (MSSG) have signed a major security services agreement to leverage each others strength to offer a complete suite of security services to Indian enterprises 12

13 Tata Communications has signed a partnership agreement with Sugar CRM, a leading provider of commercial customer relationship management (CRM) software, to provide its award-winning CRM applications as the basis for Tata`s entry as a SaaS provider. NDTV Convergence has chosen Tata Communications for its live-broad cast service, a high - quality flash based streaming service, to broadcast three national channels in India. We recommend a NETURAL on the stock. Industry Overview Indian telecom is more than 165 years old, beginning with the commissioning of the first telegraph line between Kolkata and Diamond Harbour in In 1948, India had 0.1 million telephone connections with a telephone density of about 0.02 telephones per hundred population. As of June 2007, there were million telephone (including cellular mobile) connections in the country with a telephone density of telephones per hundred population. Out of total million telephone connections, million (nearly 82 percent) connections pertained to wireless and mobile phones. Telecommunications is one of the prime support services needed for rapid growth and modernization of various sectors of the economy. It has become especially important in recent years because of enormous growth of Information Technology (IT) and its significant impact on the rest of the economy. India is perceived to have a special comparative advantage in IT and in IT-enabled services. However, sustaining this advantage depends critically on high quality telecommunication infrastructure. It is equally important to speed up structural changes in this sector in line with trends in other countries to ensure that telecommunication services are not only made available on the scale needed to sustain rapid growth in the economy as a whole but also that their cost are in tune with the expectations of a modernizing economy. Telecom sector is considered to be one of the most vibrant sector with the highest growth rate which has nearly more than 60 lakh customers added every month. Today the Indian telecommunications network with over 270 million connections is the third largest in the world and the second largest among the emerging economies of Asia. Over the last few years the sector has witnessed high growth rates. The current addition of about eight million lines per month plus the telecommunications sector is on a strong footing to achieve the target of 500 million connections by

14 Year Ending Broadband Subscribers Internet Subscribers mn 6 mn mn 18 mn mn 40 mn Source: Cris Infac, DoT This industry offers a plethora of services. It is also easily accessible and easily available for every individual today. One of the best advantages in this industry is its drastic reduction in tariff compared to the prior periods. And it has a number of public as well as private sector companies which give a world class service to their customers. The major classes of services in this sector are: Fixed Copper, Optical Fibre, Wireless Mobile GSM and CDMA Based Narrow band Voice, Internet, Fax Broadband High speed Internet, Video Key Indian Companies BSNL - Incumbent service provider and World's 7 th largest Telecommunications Company providing comprehensive range of telecom services in India Services include Wireline, CDMA mobile, GSM Mobile, Internet, Broadband, Carrier service, MPLS-VPN, VSAT, VoIP services, IN Services etc. MTNL - State owned operator covering the cities of Mumbai an Delhi Provides both fixed and mobile services 14

15 Bharti Airtel - Integrated operator with presence in all segments Leads the mobile segment in the country Reliance Communications - Largest player in India in the CDMA segment Plans a GSM network Tata Teleservices - Integrated operator (with VSNL) with presence in all segments Provides CDMA services in 20 circles Disclaimer: This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of its affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. 15

16 Firstcall India Equity Research: B. Harikrishna Banking B. Prathap IT A. Rajesh Babu FMCG C.V.S.L.Kameswari Pharma U. Janaki Rao Capital Goods E. Swethalatha Oil & Gas D. Ashakirankumar Auto Rachna Twari Diversified Kavita Singh Diversified Nimesh Gada Diversified Priya Shetty Diversified Tarang Pawar Diversified Neelam Dubey Diversified Firstcall India also provides Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt.Ltd focuses on, IPO s, QIP s, F.P.O s,takeover Offers, Offer for Sale and Buy Back Offerings. Corporate Finance Offerings include Foreign Currency Loan Syndications, Placement of Equity / Debt with multilateral organizations, Short Term Funds Management Debt & Equity, Working Capital Limits, Equity & Debt Syndications and Structured Deals. Corporate Advisory Offerings include Mergers & Acquisitions(domestic and cross-border), divestitures, spin-offs, valuation of business, corporate restructuring-capital and Debt, Turnkey Corporate Revival Planning & Execution, Project Financing, Venture capital, Private Equity and Financial Joint Ventures Firstcall India also provides Financial Advisory services with respect to raising of capital through FCCBs, GDRs, ADRs and listing of the same on International Stock Exchanges namely AIMs, Luxembourg, Singapore Stock Exchanges and other international stock exchanges. For Further Details Contact: 3rd Floor,Sankalp,The Bureau,Dr.R.C.Marg,Chembur,Mumbai Tel. : / / Telefax : info@firstcallindiaequity.com 16

PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)

PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND Company Name (Rs.) Rs. in mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%) BUY CMP 172.20 Target Price 192.00 IDEA CELLULAR LIMITED (CONSOLIDATED) Result Update: Q3 FY15 MARCH 24 th 2015 ISIN: INE669E01016 Index Details Stock Data Sector Telecom Services BSE Code 532822 Face