Good evidence is a well told story

Transcription

1 Good evidence is a well told story Jonathan Nancekivell-Smith Director, Performance and Analysis Ministry of Defence

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3 But statistics tell us

4 Not all visualisation require wizard level technology skills

5 Strategic Aim: Emerging National strategic Security themes Objectives NSO 1: Protect our People at home and abroad. Protect our territory, economic security and way of life NSO 2: Project our Global Influence - using the UK s international influence to reduce the likelihood of threats materialising NSO 3: Promote our Prosperity - seizing opportunities, working innovatively and supporting UK industry

6 Strategic context UK security challenges have increased in scale, diversity & complexity since Threats have materialised in ever more complex ways, outside our borders and from state and non-state actors, exacerbated by globalisation and open borders. States have less control than in the past. Our state and non-state adversaries are often more capable than before.

7 Strategic threats Terrorist threat driven by radicalisation and extremism within our borders and by developments, groups and individuals overseas who also find fertile ground in the UK. Russia s actions have returned state-based security threats to the UK and Europe using hybrid tactics which are harder to identify and tackle. The cyber threat is increasing and becoming more complex. The rules-based international order is under increased pressure.

8 and the Strategic Outcomes

9 and the Strategic Outcomes A generous financial settlement for Defence

10 Strategic Culture Global Strategic Trends Baseline Analysis Allies and Partners Input Policy: Manifesto & PM Productivity and Efficiency International by Design National Security Risk Assessment Lessons Engagement Input -Academia -Opinion Formers Commands Assessments and Propositions New Defence Posture and Planning Assumptions (Directing Defence) Publically Restated Defence Policy Single Departmental Plan Defence Strategy & Defence Pan

11 Strategic Culture Global Strategic Trends Baseline Analysis National Security Risk Assessment Lessons Allies and Partners Input Policy: Manifesto & PM Tools: Future capabilities assessment Force Engagement testinginput Current -Academia operations Risks review -Opinion and risk Formers acceptance Productivity and Efficiency International by Design Commands Assessments and Propositions New Defence Posture and Planning Assumptions (Directing Defence) Publically Restated Defence Policy Single Departmental Plan Defence Strategy & Defence Pan

12 So evidence has enabled a 12BN uplift in the equipment budget Global counter terrorism strike capability and special forces enhancements 100% Carrier availability; 3 new solid support ships; increased reliability and availability for T45 destroyers & clarity on T26 Frigate 2 new Strike Brigades; re-configured infantry battalions for training and assistance Additional F35 and Typhoon squadrons; fleet of Maritime Patrol Aircraft; ISR fleet growing in size and capability 4

13 Drawing out the message

14 Lessons And another from one history of the original data graphics

15 applied is still today very relevant today Public sector receipts and total expenditure

16 Example The Problem 1,300,000 Offences brought to justice Target: 1.25 million OBTJ in ,250,000 1,200,000 1,150,000 Trajectory if sanction detection rate rises to 25% 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000, ,000 0 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar ,000 Estimated OBtJ in if: 1. Sanction detection rate remains at current levels apart from 50K Fixed Penalty Notices (FPNs), 26.4K from Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR), 11.5K from forensics and 27.3K from best practice sharing. 2. Crime falls by 15% from to Conversion rates remain as modelled, including impact of Criminal Case Management Programme (CCMP).

17 Example - The Options 0 50, , ,000 ANPR Forensics 26,400 11,500 FPNs Best practice sharing 50,000 27,300 Charging ETMP NWNJ Total 29,700 2,100 1, ,250

18 Example Proof of what work 25% Detection - the leading indicator 23% 21% Other 36 Forces 19% 17% 15% 42 Forces Top 6 improvers in % Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08

19 Example - The power of the data

20 What makes for good evidence in a well told story? Introduce the evidence at the right point in the story Break the story into a series of steps, revealing it bit by bit If the point of a graph can t be understood in 30 seconds, don t use it Titles, fonts, colours and labels need individual consideration What decision are you trying to make?

21 Defence Costs Inventory 4.3% Civilians 4.8% Research 2.5% Other 5.8% Military Manpower 26.5% Infrastucture Equipment 11.9% Support 18.4% Military Equipment 15.1%

22 Defence Costs 1. United States Top 15 Global Defence Budgets 2015 US$bn 2. China 3. Saudi Arabia 4. Russia 5. United Kingdom 6. India France 8. Japan 9. Germany 10. South Korea 11. Brazil 12. Australia 13. Italy