Bringing 3D home: the role of Blu-ray Disc

Transcription

1 Bringing 3D home: the role of Blu-ray Disc Helen Davis Jayalath, Head of Video Media-Tech Asia Macau, 14 March 211

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6 Agenda Why home 3D matters to the HE industry The role of Blu-ray 3D in bringing 3D to the home Current home 3D hardware and forecasts Release strategies for Blu-ray 3D Blu-ray 3D forecasts for US and Japan

7 Why does bringing 3D to the home matter so much to the industry? Theatrical 3D is a key driver for BO revenues On average 3D added around 21% to box office revenue per title in 21 While Avatar remains stand-out, 8 further titles have generated >8% of revenues from 3D The objective is to replicate this additional revenue growth in the home ($m) US box office receipts for 3D theatrical releases Note: US 3D slate from Dec 9 to Feb 11

8 Hollywood is now strongly supporting 3D meaning more content is on its way Live action s share of 3D content is increasing Most titles will be NR, but there will be some catalogue conversions (eg. Star Wars I, Titanic) 5 4 Theatrical 3D release schedule Live action 3D genres 1% 24% umber of title es N % 4% 7% 8% 3% 1% 18% TBA Animation Live action Action Adventure Comedy Dance Drama Family Fantasy Horror Sci-fi Note: Titles for 211 and beyond based on confirmed slate

9 Why is Blu-ray 3D (BD3D) important? Can deliver the best quality 3D experience to the home Better than broadcast Outputs full HD 18p to both left and right eyes Although displayed resolution also depends on the 3D TV technology (eg. passive TVs) Potentially, BD3D can help enhance consumer interest in Blu-ray Disc (BD) Positions physical media at the cutting edge of new technology Has a wow factor arguably missing in HD

10 Home 3D hardware is already available to consumers Over 15 3D TV models and around 5 BD3D players launched worldwide so far Sony s PS3 is Blu-ray 3D capable Universal 3D glasses also on the market But some issues still need to be addressed regarding current 3D TV technology Communal viewing on active shutter TVs is limited Passive polarised 3D TVs display 3D to both eyes in a lower resolution

11 Most new branded BD players will be 3D compliant from 211 By 214, >4% of video hardware HHs will be 3D capable (Profile 5. or PS3/4) Cost of BD3D player will be insignificant beside 3D TV cost for those keen to upgrade PS3 will eventually be a Trojan horse for 3D as it is for BD 3 Key markets: video hardware HHs Eq quipped HHs (m) D BD player/recorder 3D BD player/recorder PS3/4 DVD player/recorder only Note: Key world markets = USA + W. Europe + Japan

12 But it will be 3DTVs and glasses that really drive take-up In a few years, 3D will be a standard feature on most mid-high end HDTVs By 214, 29% of US TV HHs will have a 3D capable TV BD3D enabled HH must have 3D TV connected to a BD3D player (or PS3/4) +3D glasses 22% of US TV HHs will be BD3D enabled by US 3D hardware penetration of TV HHs (%) D TV PS3/4 BD3D player BD3D enabled

13 Take-up will be slower in Japan and Europe 19% of TV HHs in Japan will have a 3D capable TV by 214;14% will be BD3D enabled BD3D player/recorders are already selling well with 27% of TV HHs expected to have one by 214 In Western Europe, 18% TV HHs will have a 3D TV in 214; 11% will be BD3D enabled 3 Japan 3D hardware penetration of TV HHs (%) 3 Western Europe 3D hardware penetration of TV HHs (%) D TV BD3D player PS3/4 BD3D enabled 3D TV BD3D player PS3/4 BD3D enabled

14 There is no BD3D bottleneck in authoring and replication The large authoring houses have been BD3D capable since at least April 21 Authoring times for BD3D are already approaching times for 2D BD Many independents are also now able to author BD3D (most using Sonic software) 3D adds estimated 25-3% premium on authoring time and thus costs Quality of input content, correct frame rates and resolution are vital to minimising costs At this early stage many are still learning but the step change is much smaller than DVD-to-B D 3D conversion from 2D is a longer process, quality conversion takes up to 6 months There are no differences between 2D BD and 3DBD replication (but BD5s are required) As a result, we don t expect BD3D to necessarily affect replicators market shares But larger replicators are offering 3D services across all stages of production BD3D is rapidly becoming an area of competitive advantage, especially for studio product

15 BD3D retail release slate ramped up last year despite a slow start In the US, 39 titles were available by mid Feb on retail shelves - enough to fill a standard retail bay Retail availability critical for home 3D adoption 15 Theatrical vs. BD3D slate BD3D titles at retail 28% Numb ber of movie es 1 5 Theatrical Blu-ray Note: theatrical 3D slate includes all 3D releases to Sep 21 (and thus eligible for BD release by Jan 211; BD 3D slate includes all titles released to mid Feb % Titles in store Titles exclusively bundled Note: BD3D slate includes all titles released to mid Feb 211

16 211 BD3D slate is off to a positive start 29 titles already confirmed for BD3D*release in the US this year* Disney to release at least 15 titles in 211, including Tron Legacy The majority will be NRs, but there will be some catalogue conversions Disney s Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King, plus 3x Harry Potter titles from Warner Titanic and Star Wars: The Phantom Menace scheduled for theatrical 3D release in 212 Confirmed 211 BD3D releases* *For release between mid Feb 211 and end 211

17 BD3D release strategies: one or 2 SKUs? US studios are so far adopting a dual SKU strategy Allows for a premium price on the BD3D SKU Some indie distributors (eg. Image Ent/Big Pictures) are phasing out existing 2D BD SKUs Ensures BD3D visibility on retail shelves Builds up 3D content in 2D BD HHs 5 Average NR BD prices by studio 35 US Pricing ($) US SRP ($) BD3D 2D BD DVD retail 2D BD retail BD3D retail

18 3D will help reinvigorate interest in Blu-ray IHS SD s existing forecasts include 3D 3D will help maintain BD s premium position and price Based on current title slate, US consumers will spend >$8m on buying BD3D in % of BD spending or almost 1% of all physical video spending 12 Consumer spending on retail video: USA 1 8 ($bn) DVD retail 2D BD retail BD3D retail Digital retail (EST)

19 It has the potential to take off slightly faster in Japan Based on current title slate, Japanese consumers will spend $3m on buying BD3D in % of BD spending or 11% of all physical video spending BD3D will also fit into current BD rental models 4 Consumer spending on retail video: Japan 3 ($bn) DVD retail 2D BD retail BD3D retail Digital retail (EST)

20 BD3D set to generate $1.5bn in consumer spending in key world markets by % of BD spending or 7% of all physical video spending If take-up is more enthusiastic than expected it could generate additional, incremental revenues 3 Consumer spending on retail video: Key world markets ($bn) DVD retail 2D BD retail BD3D retail Digital retail (EST)

21 BD3D is an exciting technology with the potential to reinvigorate the BD category The technology must be marketed and promoted clearly & comprehensively to generate awareness and understanding In-store demos by knowledgeable staff are vital As is working demo equipment! In some markets (eg, UK), broadcasters effectively captured the HD market, leaving BD out in the cold The industry must ensure that this does not happen again BD3D has real wow factor the home entertainment industry must work together to translate that into genuine consumer enthusiasm!

22 Thank you com