Can you wait until 2010?

Transcription

1 Decision Framework, M.Silver,A.Park Research Note 5 December 2003 Who Should Deploy Office 2003, and When Enterprises that intend to skip Office 2003 should ensure that they are comfortable with their current version of Office until 2010, long after support for Office 97, 2000 and even XP will be gone. Core Topics Hardware Platforms: Client Platforms Knowledge & Content Mgmt., Collaboration & E-Learning: E-Workplace Systems and Technology Key Issue How will desktop and mobile client platforms evolve during the next five years? Strategic Planning Assumption Office 12 will ship as part of Microsoft's Longhorn wave of software releases (0.7 probability), and it will require Windows Longhorn (0.7 probability). In "Office 2003 Has XML: What Else Is New?" we discussed Microsoft's Office 2003 suite. The major new features include Extensible Markup Language (XML) support, digital rights management (DRM) support and a revamped version of Outlook, as well as some of the other products in the Microsoft Office System, such as OneNote. Once enterprises understand which features will benefit them, they must decide if and when they want to deploy Office Even if they decide that the features are not compelling in their environment, enterprises may still feel forced to install Office 2003 if they deem that their current Office product is too old, too risky, not supported by Microsoft or thirdparty products, or just will not last until they can deploy the version Microsoft will release after Office Can you wait until 2010? Looking past Office 2003, which was officially launched on 21 October 2003 and was available on Select agreements the month before, we expect Office 12 to ship as part of Microsoft's Longhorn "wave" of software releases (0.7 probability), and it will require Windows Longhorn (0.7 probability). If Windows Longhorn is delayed, Office 12 will probably be delayed as well. Because of the significant changes expected in the Longhorn release of Windows (see "Windows Client-OS Road Map: What's in a Code Name?"), we do not expect mainstream enterprises to begin large rollouts until 18 months after it ships. Assuming a rapid rollout, an enterprise is not likely to fully deploy Windows Longhorn until 2009, and a slow rollout may mean that legacy software will be run in parts of the enterprise into So a decision to skip Office 2003 means that the enterprise's current version of Office may be in use until 2009 to Enterprises or users that do not feel comfortable running their current version of Office until then should plan to upgrade in the interim. Gartner Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 Office 97 support is ending in January 2004 after 16 January, neither assisted support nor fixes for new bugs, including security-related ones, will be produced (see Figure 1). Office 2000 will be supported by Microsoft for an extra cost in the extended support phase through mid Office XP's support life cycle will end in mid The most risk-averse enterprises and users should be off a product before all support ends, but typical office automation users at typical enterprises can run unsupported versions for some period of time, depending on the user type and perceived risk. Office 97 No Assisted Support or New Hot Fixes Figure 1 Gartner's View of Microsoft's Office Road Map P=0.7 Extended Office 2000 Support Phase Begins Office XP P=0.7 Office Source: Gartner Research (November 2003) What to Do Office 12 Large-Scale Deployments Begin Enterprises With Upgrade Advantage, Software Assurance or an Enterprise Agreement: Microsoft has traditionally done a poor job of documenting migration and compatibility issues between versions, so even enterprises that have license rights to more-current versions face significant pain in compatibility testing and deployment. Therefore, enterprises that have paid for rights to the Office 2003 suite will still have significant migration costs (see "Office Automation Migration Cost Model") and need to develop a business case and decide on timing. Enterprises with Office XP installed may want to skip Office 12 unless they have specific XML or DRM projects planned. Outlook 2003 should still be considered for Exchange users. Enterprises Without Upgrade Rights: Enterprises without upgrade rights should evaluate the new features to understand if any are compelling. Because XML can deliver business value if 5 December

3 integrated into a formal project, these projects will have the best opportunity for real return on investment. Enterprises that want to upgrade should attempt to negotiate upgrade pricing from Microsoft, even though it does not officially exist anymore. Enterprises that don't have software maintenance but are interested in upgrading Outlook, but not the rest of the suite, should check their Exchange licenses to see if Outlook 2003 is included. Enterprises should also consider the risk represented by their current version of Office as they make their decision, namely: Office 97: This platform has a medium risk after January 2004, when Microsoft drops all support. The biggest risk is that a major security hole will be uncovered that Microsoft will not fix. Although we believe that Microsoft will patch significant security exposures (where technically feasible) into 2004, enterprises that cannot manage that risk should plan to move off Office 97. For most typical users, this risk may be manageable. There is still a significant, although declining, installed base of Office 97 (see "Windows Client and Office Migration: 4Q02 Survey"). Enterprises should also understand the support policies of independent software vendors (ISVs) whose products tie tightly into Office. Enterprises concerned about security and support should plan to move off Office 97 to XP or 2003 (Office 2003 should be favored unless ISV support or timing issues prevent it, or unless the enterprise has rights to XP but not Office 2003). Microsoft recently published a document to help Office 97 users understand migration issues: see Office 2000: This platform is low-risk today. It will be supported to some extent until mid The risk will increase after that, again for security concerns. More-risk-averse enterprises should understand the deployment timeline presented above if they wait for the next version of Office, they will probably not be able to start deployment until long after Office 2000 support has ended, and it could easily take another 12 to 24 months or more until most of their PCs have been upgraded. Again, upgrading to Office XP or 2003 would further minimize the risk and position the client for the Longhorn wave of products. Office XP: This platform is very low-risk. Unless a clear business case exists, Office 2003 should be skipped in favor of Office 12. Competitive-suite installed base: Corel is still actively developing new versions of WordPerfect Office and we expect renewed emphasis on this product, but it needs to be monitored for changes in strategy, given its new ownership. Lotus is seemingly in maintenance mode with SmartSuite, and we do not expect 5 December

4 new major releases. Enterprises on Lotus or Corel should have contingency plans to move and should look for any special upgrade offers Microsoft announces if the enterprises choose Microsoft Office as their target. However, unless an enterprise is experiencing severe compatibility or support issues, we do not advocate "forklift" replacement. Products Outside the Suite Enterprises should evaluate these products to understand function, purchase price, implementation cost, management costs and benefits, and to understand where the return on investment exists. Products like InfoPath need to be part of application development efforts. OneNote has the potential to be a popular horizontal productivity application. Although a tablet PC is required for full benefit, laptop users and other users who attend many meetings will also find it useful. Enterprises should evaluate it and implement policy on its use or risk losing control. Enterprises should also make sure they understand which products require additional servers to be deployed (Windows 2003 Server for Windows SharePoint Services and Exchange 2003) and which Client Access Licenses must be purchased (Windows Rights Management) to have a more complete view of their migration requirements and costs. When to Deploy Typically, advice on when to deploy has had to do with when service packs are released. Users would wait for the first service pack, while Microsoft would argue that the stability without a service pack was fine. We believe this argument is not useful. Service pack delivery should have little to do with when to deploy these products for mainstream users, because the typical enterprise has so much work to do ensuring that other systems that integrate with Office are compatible, and that applications written in Office don't break. All of that takes much longer than delivery of a service pack, often 12 to 18 months. Furthermore, in the case of Office 2003, enterprises that want to take advantage of XML features for business use will probably need much longer than when the first service pack is delivered to develop and test this functionality. Enterprises should do necessary compatibility testing and gain assurance from vendors of third-party products that rely on Office that they will support the new release. Migrations before this is accomplished will be extremely risky. Acronym Key DRM digital rights management ISV independent software vendor XML Extensible Markup Language Bottom Line: Enterprises with rights to Office 2003 still need to build a business case for deployment to justify the testing and deployment costs. Enterprises using versions of Office prior to XP should analyze the risk of running their version until Office 12 will be deployed in their environment, to understand if they can 5 December

5 skip Office Business cases should examine new features of Office 2003, including Extensible Markup Language support and digital rights management technology. Other point products in the Office System should be evaluated and policies put in place to avoid budget surprises later. Enterprises should determine whether server products or Client Access Licenses are required and understand how they are increasing their lock-in to Microsoft products. 5 December