Wireless Local Loop: Cellular in Waiting? (Executive Summary) Executive Summary
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1 Wireless Local Loop: Cellular in Waiting? (Executive Summary) Executive Summary Publication Date: October 14, 2002
2 Authors To Chee Eng Evelyn Goh Kobita Desai This document has been published to the following Cluster codes: TELC-WW-EX-0466 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2002 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice
3 Wireless Local Loop: Cellular in Waiting? (Executive Summary) Introduction For Asia/Pacific, with its vast and fragmented geography, WLL is a fast and low-cost solution for bringing telephony to rural communities underserved by telecommunications. However, this technology has never been largely deployed until now. The number of subscribers in the three largest WLL markets in Asia jumped from 3.5 million in 2000 to 6.9 million in 2001, a growth of 95 percent. Gartner predicts that the number will increase eight times to 57 million in 2006, a CAGR of53percent(seefigure1). The WLL growth is phenomenal when compared with total fixed-line growth, which is expected to report a CAGR of just 11 percent over the same period. The soaring WLL market prompts the following questions: Is this the start of a new trend in Asia? Whatwillthegrowthbelikeduringthenextfiveyears? Which markets are growing faster than other markets? How will WLL impact the fixed or cellular markets? So far, most of the WLL deployments are concentrated in three countries: China, India and Thailand. Deployment in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines is picking up, but in the rest of Asia/Pacific there is little evidence of a ramp-up in the near term. In the three markets with strong WLL growth, the market drivers and inhibitors are quite different. Each market needs to be assessed on its own to get a picture of WLL developments in Asia. Figure 1 WLL Subscriber Growth in Key Asia/Pacific Markets: China, India and Thailand Number of Subscribers (K) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: Gartner Dataquest (September 2002) 2002 Gartner, Inc. 1
4 2 Wireless Local Loop: Cellular in Waiting? (Executive Summary) WLL: Riding on PSTN There are some similarities between the early adopters that can provide valuable insight for other countries planning to roll out WLL. To begin with, the service is typically based on cellular technology. Users have mobility, but the technology is often tweaked (usually under instructions from telecommunications regulators) to limit roaming to a local area or within a city to avoid direct competition with cellular services. However, WLL can be easily upgraded to full cellular if and when regulations permit. The rapid growth of WLL masks the fundamental problem that the service is mainly deployed in smaller cities to meet the demand for inexpensive mobility, rather than as a solution to solve rural needs. As such, the users who need WLL most are still not much closer to getting a basic phone service. WLL growth will also speed up the substitution of fixed lines by mobile, already a major issue in Asia. Many developing countries are still grossly underserved by fixed lines. Also, the increase in mobile services is likely to slow down the expansion of fixed-line networks. The emphasis on mobility is not such a big disadvantage. It allows fixed-line operatorstobuildupasubscriberbaseandatthesametimeexpandtheirfixed networks at a more measured pace, thus relieving the pressure on capital expenditure. When the fixed networks are in place, the fixed-line operators can migrate WLL users to fixed-line or cellular services. The emphasis on mobility will also wane as cellular services mature. This will encourage operators to step up the pace of the WLL rollout to rural areas to meet universal service obligations. WLL was envisioned as an efficient medium for last-mile connectivity, especially in remote and scattered rural areas where the costs of extending a phone line to a user is prohibitive. WLL uses radio signals instead of conventional phone lines to connect subscribers. Subscribers often enjoy the mobility also found in a regular cellular service. However, because of regulatory barriers, roaming is often limited to within a small geography in some countries. The roaming area is limited to avoid head-on competition with cellular operators, which often have to pay a premium for their licenses and are understandably reluctant to cede market share to new entrants. Most services are based on one of the following technologies: PHS PAS CDMA PHS is widely deployed in Japan and marketed as a low-cost cellular service with special appeal to mobile data users. PAS is being rolled out in China. CDMA is being rolled out in India. These technologies are essentially cellular systems;however,theyserveasanaccessnetworkonly,usingthepublic switched telephone network as the core network. In contrast, a cellular operator would typically operate a dedicated cellular backbone network Gartner, Inc. October 14, 2002
5 Wireless Local Loop: Cellular in Waiting? (Executive Summary) 3 Forecast Outlook: Fast Forward Table 1 provides forecast of WLL growth in the three Asia/Pacific markets: China, India and Thailand. For the purpose of this report, Gartner Dataquest focused only on the three major markets that account for the bulk of WLL deployments. There are pockets of WLL installations in other countries, but the numbers are too small to make an impact on total WLL numbers. Other countries will be included in future Gartner Dataquest forecasts when there is evidence of large-scale deployment. China is the largest of the three WLL markets, accounting for 88 percent of the subscriber base. By 2006, it will still account for 83 percent. India is the smallest because it started late. But India is expected to surge forward this year, overtaking Thailand as the second largest market, with 15 percent. Thailand will decline to less than 2 percent of the subscriber market. Table 1 WLL Subscriber Growth in Key Asia/Pacific Markets: China, India and Thailand CAGR (%) China (K) 3,078 6,164 11,302 23,578 32,891 40,914 47, Growth (Percent) NA India (K) ,700 4,900 6,700 8, Growth (Percent) NA Thailand (K) Growth (Percent) NA Total Subscribers (K) 3,551 6,921 12,752 27,063 38,625 48,483 56, Growth (Percent) NA Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2002) For the full report, see the Gartner Dataquest Focus Report, "Wireless Local Loop: Cellular in Waiting?" (TCPS-WW-FR-0141) Gartner, Inc. October 14, 2002
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