Predicts 2004: The Future of Windows Server

Transcription

1 Strategic Planning, T. Bittman Research Note 19 November 2003 Predicts 2004: The Future of Windows Server In 2004, distributed manageability will emerge as the key to the future of Windows Server, especially in its competitive battle with Linux. Core Topic Hardware Platforms: Server Platforms Key Issue How will centralized and distributed servers evolve during the next five years? Strategic Planning Assumptions Through 2004, at least 70 percent of Windows Server 2003 deployments will be driven by Windows NT migrations (0.8 probability). Microsoft will deliver Windows Longhorn server in 2006 (0.3 probability), 2007 (0.4 probability) or 2008 (0.3 probability). Support for Windows 2000 Server will be extended beyond the seven-year guideline, ending one year after Longhorn availability (0.6 probability). Less than 10 percent of Windows-based server revenue generated in 2008 will be based on servers using IPF (0.7 probability). By 2007, Microsoft will focus on manageability, and the value of the Microsoft architecture as the biggest differentiator for Windows, as Linux becomes the most important competitor in the enterprise (0.7 probability). In 2004, Microsoft will make several acquisitions intended to fill gaps in the Windows Server management capabilities (0.8 probability) will bring a number of changes to Windows Server and the Windows server market. Microsoft's support for NT Server will end, even though the installed base of NT Server will be larger than that of Windows 2000 or Windows Server 2003 (WS03). Microsoft will deliver a number of "out-of-band" feature packs for WS03 in Linux will grow rapidly on the 64-bit Itanium Processor Family (IPF) architecture, while Windows will not. And Microsoft's Dynamic Systems Initiative (DSI) will emerge as a major investment area for Microsoft to compete against Linux. Prediction: General NT Server support will cease at the end of 2004; however, the majority of the installed servers will not be migrated by then. Gartner estimates that roughly 60 percent of the installed base of Windows servers are still running Windows NT Server. With support for NT Server ending at year-end 2004, Gartner expects a relatively large migration from NT Server to WS03 roughly one-third of the current NT Server installed base will migrate to WS03 by year-end At the same time, we expect migrations/upgrades from Windows 2000 to be relatively small, because many Windows 2000 deployments are running on newer hardware, and most migrations to WS03 from Windows 2000 will occur when the server hardware is refreshed. In fact, by year-end 2004, roughly 75 percent of WS03 deployments will be migrations from NT Server. For those NT servers that cannot be migrated by year-end 2004, customers can contract for custom support from Microsoft "Gold certified" partners. Gartner believes custom NT Server support will be very expensive. Stability feedback from early adopters of WS03 has been positive. Gartner does not expect stability problems with the release. Although software vendor support is not yet complete, it is growing rapidly and will be a nonissue by early Gartner Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 Strategic Planning Assumption: Through 2004, at least 70 percent of Windows Server 2003 deployments will be driven by Windows NT migrations (0.8 probability). Action Recommendations for 2004 Enterprises should plan to migrate away from NT Server v.4.0 by year-end 2004 especially critical servers. Migrations from NT Server to Windows 2000 are not recommended, because of the planned end of support in March (However, note our prediction later in this research that this might be extended.) Beyond year-end 2004, custom NT Server support must be considered for critical servers. However, clients should avoid custom support agreements for less critical servers, investing instead in speeding a migration effort. Unless an application requires WS03, Gartner recommends replacing Windows 2000 with WS03 gradually as hardware is refreshed. A complete migration from Windows 2000 will not be cost-effective avoid it unless replacing all hardware on a normal schedule. On the other hand, avoid new deployments of Windows 2000 if possible, and deploy WS03 instead. Enterprises that are planning to deploy Active Directory and have not yet started should strongly consider deploying domain controllers exclusively on WS03, and skip Windows Prediction: Microsoft will deliver the Windows Longhorn server release by 2008, but it will also ship incremental enhancements for Windows Server 2003 periodically before Longhorn is available. Microsoft is diverting development resources to work on patch management and security shielding. This effort will delay the next major release of Windows, code-named Longhorn. Microsoft will aggressively promote migration from Windows 2000, which, according to Microsoft guidelines, will no longer be supported by March The delay of Longhorn is likely to force Microsoft to extend the support plan for Windows 2000, to allow a one-year overlap with the availability of Longhorn. However, we believe that Microsoft will not announce support timing changes until at least Microsoft is changing its delivery process for incremental release enhancements. Rather than wait for Longhorn, enterprises should expect Microsoft to deliver several "server feature packs" and limited-edition offerings between WS03 and Longhorn server. These feature packs will be optional installs and packaged in logical groupings of enhancements (such as at least one focused on security in 2004, another to support Virtual Server in mid-2004, and so on). Microsoft will position WS03 as a 19 November

3 constantly improving server operating system. However, these out-of-band feature packs will be a challenge for Microsoft, requiring additional development and testing resources. Strategic Planning Assumptions: Microsoft will deliver Windows Longhorn server in 2006 (0.3 probability), 2007 (0.4 probability) or 2008 (0.3 probability). Support for Windows 2000 Server will be extended beyond the seven-year guideline, ending one year after Longhorn availability (0.6 probability). Clients should manage tightly which feature packs are deployed and which are not and maintain control of server installations, and the overhead cost of upgrading a current server install. Some of the feature packs might be useful for servers in certain roles. Some might be broadly useful, such as patch management and shielding improvements. Understanding exactly what is included in a feature pack is critical. If possible, new functions should be deployed when the server is already being touched for example, for new servers, upgrades, hardware refreshes and major application changes when full system testing will be performed anyway. Feature packs should not be managed in the same way as service packs they should be evaluated before they are applied. Prediction: Use of 64-bit Windows will grow, but, even by 2008, 64-bit Windows will remain a niche market. Windows now fully supports Intel's IPF. However, the market for 64-bit Windows will grow very slowly, for several reasons: Scalability is not a major issue with 32-bit Intel servers. Most workloads don't require the memory limits enabled by 64-bit addressing. Those that do, such as data warehousing, are only a minor percentage of Windows servers sold. Workload consolidation within the Windows operating system is limited, and it will only improve gradually (through new applications and improvements in Windows) keeping operating-system memory requirements lower. Application support for 64-bit Windows will grow only gradually. The primary operating system for IPF will be HP-UX through There is a growing trend for migration from Unix/reduced instruction set computer (RISC) platforms to Linux (and not just low-end servers) making Linux second to HP-UX in market share on IPF (in addition to Linux growth on IA-32). Thirty-two-bit Windows will remain the mainstream Windows server choice. 19 November

4 Strategic Planning Assumption: Less than 10 percent of Windows-based server revenue generated in 2008 will be based on servers using IPF (0.7 probability). Enterprises should consider 32-bit Windows the default Windows server choice. Only consider 64-bit Windows for very specific application deployments, where application support is proven and 32-bit Windows is not sufficient (in terms of memory or computing power). Prediction: Manageability and, especially, distributedsystem manageability will become a primary strategic focus for Windows server, and the Longhorn release in particular. Microsoft faces a serious threat from Linux, and it will need to respond differently from the way it did to competition from other server operating systems. Against NetWare, Microsoft focused on application support. Against Unix, Microsoft focused on the cost advantages of Intel servers. Neither strategy will work against Linux, which has a growing base of applications and runs predominantly on Intel servers. Microsoft will use two major strategies against Linux: a focus on the value of the complete Windows ecosystem (what Microsoft calls the "Windows Server System"), and a focus on distributed manageability (centered on Microsoft's DSI). The Windows Server System will be positioned as a more integrated and complete offering, focusing on "value" as a differentiator. This will be mainly a marketing effort, but it will shift development focus somewhat. DSI is a more significant strategic investment. The goal is to make the cost of ownership of several hundred Windows servers less expensive than the cost of ownership of similar Linux servers, and to make several hundred Windows servers more flexible to use (and manage) than several hundred Linux servers. DSI is Microsoft's real-time infrastructure strategy, and perhaps its most important effort to compete against Linux as a server. Improving the distributed manageability of Windows is no simple matter, but it should be an easier matter for Microsoft (with ownership of the operating system, application server, development tools, layered software and so on the Windows Server System) than for a multivendor Linux-based solution. Several early elements of DSI were announced with WS03 (such as Windows System Resource Manager, Virtual Server, virtual storage support and Automated Deployment Services). However, 19 November

5 enterprises can expect that the primary focus of Longhorn will be manageability improvements. Microsoft can't afford to wait until Longhorn, however, so expect manageability improvements to be included in out-of-band feature packs prior to Longhorn. Strategic Planning Assumptions: By 2007, Microsoft will focus on manageability, and the value of the Microsoft architecture as the biggest differentiator for Windows, as Linux becomes the most important competitor in the enterprise (0.7 probability). In 2004, Microsoft will make several acquisitions intended to fill gaps in the Windows Server management capabilities (0.8 probability). Real-time infrastructure has become a cornerstone strategy for IBM (as a part of On Demand), Hewlett-Packard (Adaptive Infrastructure) and Sun Microsystems (N1). It will soon become a major competitive focus for Microsoft. A large number of tools are emerging to improve the manageability of Windows-based environments. Enterprises should evaluate them based on rapid return on investment, and monitor Microsoft's management (and acquisition) strategy. Server selection should include server manageability and flexibility. Acronym Key DSI Dynamic Systems Initiative IPF Itanium Processor Family RISC reduced instruction set computer WS03 Windows Server 2003 Bottom Line: In 2004, Windows NT Server users should target Windows Server 2003 for migration. Support for NT Server beyond year-end 2004 will be expensive and should be avoided if possible. Closely manage the use of new out-of-band feature packs some of which will be useful (for specific servers, or broadly), and some of which can be ignored for most servers. Although Windows now fully supports 64-bit computing, most users should maintain a 32-bit Windows strategy. Strategically, 2004 will be the year in which Microsoft expands its real-time infrastructure strategy, to compete against Linux, and develops significant manageability improvements targeting the Longhorn release in the 2006-to-2008 time frame. 19 November