Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Data Forecast U.S. Highlights 2013-2018 Robert Pepper, VP Global Technology Policy Doug Webster, VP Service Provider Marketing February 2014
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco s IP Thought Leadership Cisco VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers. Global Forecast Data Global Mobile Speed Data 2
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers More Mobile Connections 2013 7.0 Billion 2018 10.2 Billion Faster Mobile Speeds 2013 1.4 Mbps 2018 2.5 Mbps More Mobile Users 2013 4.1 Billion 2018 4.9 Billion More Mobile Video 2013 53% of Traffic 2018 69% of Traffic 3
4
US Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line US Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 8-Fold from 2013 2018 50% CAGR 2013 2018 3.00 2.7 EB Exabytes per Month 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.4 EB 0.6 EB 0.9 EB 1.3 EB 1.9 EB 0.00 5
Global Mobile Device Growth by Type Billions of Devices 12 10 8 6 4 Other Portable Devices (0.3%,0.3%) Tablets (1.3%,5.0%) Laptops (2.1%,2.6%) M2M (4.9%,19.7%) Smartphones (24.9%,38.5%) Non-Smartphones (66.4%,33.9%) 2 0 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share 6
United States Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Have 41% Share; Non-Smartphones Decline Rapidly M2M and Tablets Gain Share Millions of Devices 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Other Portable Devices (3.7%,1.5%) Tablets (8.7%,13.9%) Laptops (2.8%,2.5%) M2M (9.1%,40.2%) Smartphones (48.2%,41.1%) Non-Smartphones (27.6%,0.7%) * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share 7
Smart Devices & Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections 2013 2018 Global BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa 21% 65% 45% 15% 14% 17% 10% 54% 93% 83% 61% 55% 47% 36% 8
U.S. Leads Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic 2013 2018 Global BY REGION North America Western Europe Central & Eastern Europe Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa 88% 98% 95% 75% 81% 85% 76% 96% 100% 100% 95% 96% 95% 90% 9
Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type 2013 MBs per Month 2018 MBs per Month Non-Smartphone 10.8 45 M2M 61 451 Wearable 78 345 Smartphone 529 2,672 Tablet 1,374 5,609 Laptop 2,455 5,095 Note: In 2013, 4G Smartphones generated 2 GBs/month and 4G Tablets generated 2.4 GBs/month 10
Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share Billions of Devices or Connections 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4G 3G 2G 59% 68% 48% 44% 26% 29% 15% 8% 3% 11
United States Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share U.S. Leads 4G Migration Millions of Devices or Connections 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 62% 25% 13% 4G 3G 2G 47% 45% 8% 52% 41% 7% 0 12
Western Europe Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share Millions of Devices or Connections 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 4G 3G 2G 60% 66% 24% 32% 16% 2% 13
Latin America Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share Millions of Devices or Connections 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 4G 3G 2G 64% 74% 52% 45% 25% 27% 3% 9% 0.1% 14
Asia Pacific Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share 3.5 4G 3G 2G Billions of Devices or Connections 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 74% 24% 2% 52% 38% 9% 58% 29% 13% 0.0 15
In 2013, a 4G connection generated 2.0 GB/mo, 3.7X higher than the 551 MB/mo for non-4g (mostly 3G) connections in North America. 16 2013-2014 Cisco and/or Cisco and/or its affiliates. its affiliates. All rights All reserved. rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 16
North America Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 5X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be 2X Higher than Average by 2018 25 20 4G 3G All Network Types 2G 24 Mbps Mbps 15 10 5 7 Mbps 5 Mbps 151 Kbps 0 17
United States Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G In The US, 4G Will Be Over Three-Fourths of Mobile Traffic by 2018 Exabytes per Month 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G 1% 43% 56% 0.1% 22% 77% 0.0 18
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Will Be 51% of Mobile Traffic by 2018 Exabytes per Month 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2-2.5G 3% 3-3.5G 4G 46% 51% 9% 60% 30% 0 19
United States Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 68 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018 3.0 Mobile File Sharing (2.3%) 50% CAGR 2013 2018 Exabytes per Month 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Mobile M2M (8.4%) Mobile Audio (13.9%) Mobile Web/Data (7.1%) Mobile Video (68.3%) Figures (n) refer to 2018 traffic share 0.5 0.0 20
Top Global Traffic Generating Apps Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps (Android) Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Android) Facebook Social Media Netflix Video Streaming YouTube Video Streaming Instagram Image Sharing Netflix Video Streaming Dropbox File Sharing TubeMate Video Downloading Facebook Social Media Instagram Image Sharing YouTube Video Streaming TuneIn Audio Streaming Flipboard News SoundCloud Audio Streaming TuneIn Audio Streaming Flipboard News VLC Media Player Video Streaming Skype Communications BSPlayer Video Streaming Twitter Communications Spotify Audio Streaming Dropbox File Sharing NYTimes News Spotify Audio Streaming Hulu Video Streaming Pandora Audio Streaming TubeMate Video Streaming 21
Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 6-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will be on 3G Billions of M2M Connections 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.3 B 43% CAGR 2013 2018 3G 2.0 B 2G 1.6 B 4G 0.5 B 34% 28% 71% 64% 0.8 B 1.1 B 47% 41% 48% 56% 51% 50% 35% 41% 14% 9% * In 2013, 4G accounts for 0.43% of global mobile M2M connections. In 2014,1.5% connections, in 2015, 3% connections and in 2016,5.6% connections are 4G. 22
United States M2M Connection Growth US M2M Connections will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, Nearly a Third M2M Connections Will be On 4G Millions of M2M Connections 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 35 M 42% 56% 50% CAGR 2013 2018 3G 271 M 2G 207 M 4G 63 M 51% 45% 100 M 57% 35% 9% 149 M 59% 26% 15% 51% 57% 15% 20% 33% 24% 23
Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, 13 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity 52% CAGR 2013 2018 Millions of Connected Wearables 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 177 M 127 M 88 M 58 M 36 M 22 M 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% % with Embedded Cellular Connectivity 24
Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 36-Fold from 2013-2018 105% CAGR 2013 2018 Monthly Traffic (PB) 70 61 60 50 40 34 30 17 20 9 10 4 2 0 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% % of Smartphone Traffic 25
United States Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 64% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 57% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013 8.0 7.0 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Exabytes per Month 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 36% 64% 1.0 0.0 *Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks 26
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 52% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 45% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013 35 Exabytes per Month 30 25 20 15 10 5 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 48% 52% 0 *Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks 27
United States IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Wi-Fi From Mobile Offload Growing Fastest 40,000 Mobile Data (57% CAGR) 21% CAGR 2012 2017 Petabytes per Month 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Fixed/Wired (14% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi - Mobile Offload (72% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi - Wi-Fi Only (27% CAGR) 6% 51% 10% 10,000 5,000 34% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 28
US Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2018 4G Devices Offloads As Much Traffic As 3G and More Than 2G Mobile and Offload Traffic from Mobile- Connected Devices 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 50% 50% 36% 64% 36% 64% Mobile Traffic Offload Traffic 0% 2G 3G 4G 29
Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010 2013 Top 1% Generated10% in Sept 2013 early adopters becoming new normal 60% Top 1 % Percentage of Top 1 percent to Total MB/mo 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 52% 24% 16% 10% 0% Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 30
3 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month 24 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month 100% 93% 97% 90% Oct-11 Percentage of Users 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Sep-12 Sep-13 24% 75% 20% 10% 3% 0% Greater than 5 GB Greater than 2 GB Greater than 200 MB Greater than 20 MB Greater than 1 MB 31
Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans; Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption 100% % Number of Mobile Data Plans 80% 60% 40% 20% 739 MB 425 MB 1,261 MB 922 MB 1,890 MB 1,081 MB Unlimited Tiered 0% Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 32
Number of Shared Plans Increase 100% % Number of Mobile Data Plans 80% 60% 40% 20% 792 MB 1.4 GB 946 MB Regular Plans Shared Plans 0% 648 MB Oct-12 Sep-13 33
Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher Than Average Hour in 2013, 83% in 2018 100 90 80 Average Hour Traffic Busy Hour Traffic 70 Tbps 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 34
Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2013 2018 Get more info see Tools and Resources www.cisco.com/go/vni traffic-inquiries@cisco.com 35
Thank you.