"Mobile & Wireless - The U.S. - Asia Connection"

Transcription

1 "Mobile & Wireless - The U.S. - Asia Connection" J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D. VP & Principal Analyst, Mobile & Wireless MobileTrax LLC Thursday, Oct. 6, 2011, 4:15 5:30 pm Skilling Auditorium, Stanford University 1

2 J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Mobile & Wireless Past industry experience: Compaq Computer Portable Product Marketing Fujitsu Director of Marketing (Poqet Division) Phoenix Technology Dir, Worldwide Portable Marketing Gartner Dataquest VP & Chief Analyst, Mobile & Wireless Frost & Sullivan VP & Chief Analyst, Mobile & Wireless MobileTrax Principal Analyst, Mobile & Wireless Successful career: Guiding early stage mobile & wireless ventures Consulting to established players Inside Mobile newsletter Insights on a particular mobile and wireless topic Distributed weekly to over 130,000 people Venture Experience Five years experience as a Venture Advisor with Diamondhead Ventures Managing Director, Yosemite Ventures (advises young companies) Education: B.S. Engineering Physics, University of Tennessee, 1965 M.S., Computer Science, UCLA, June 1968 Ph.D. Computer Science & Exercise Physiology, Stanford, June

3 How I Used My Dual Ph.D. Purdy s Ph.D. First Handheld PC Mobile & Wireless Analyst Original CRTP Book (20,000 copies) Olympic Decathlon Scoring Tables RunningTrax Book (60,000+ copies) RunningTrax Web Portal

4 Gerry & Alicia: 1961 vs Northside High School dance, Atlanta th High School Reunion, Sept. 30,

5 The Mobile Market (Think: billions of smartphones & tablets) 5

6 World of Wireless World Population (B) World Mobile Subscribers (B) World Mobile Penetration 30% 34% 39% 42% 45% 47% 49% 51% 53% 6

7 Worldwide Wireless Subscriber Market % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% World Mobile Subscribers World Population World Mobile Penetration 7

8 US Wireless Market Description U.S. Population U.S. Mobile Subscribers U.S. Mobile Penetration 63% 71% 78% 83% 88% 92% 95% 98% 100% 102% 104% 8

9 US Wireless Subscriber Market % % % % % % % U.S. Population U.S. Mobile Subscribers U.S. Mobile Penetration 9

10 Smartphones Global Shipments Smartphones Smartphones 10

11 Mobile Subscribers (Millions) Mobile Device Connections Forecast, North America ( ) % 67.1% % % Smartphones Feature Phones Source: Frost & Sullivan Feature Phones Smartphones 11

12 Global Smartphones by OS Apple Android Blackberry Symbian Windows Phone Web os Other

13 Global Smartphones by OS Apple Android Blackberry Symbian Windows Phone Web os Other Source: Frost & Sullivan 13

14 Smartphone Market Share 2Q % 18.6% Apple 4.1% 10.4% 14.3% Samsung Nokia RIM 12.6% 19.6% HTC Motorola Others 14

15 Smartphone Market Share by Geographic Region 30.9% 15.5% 29.4% 24.3% Rest of World Asia Pacific Europe NA 15

16 Megatrends in Mobile & Wireless (Think: the world is becoming mobile centric ) 16

17 2012 Mobile & Wireless Trends The world is migrating from Internet centric to mobile centric. It s not changing from one to the other Rather, it s where the center of gravity is headed Lots of reasons for this including that in many areas of the world, the phone is the only way to access the Internet Time spent looking at mobile device screens will continue to increase for many years Screens include TVs, PCs (primarily notebooks), Pads (ipad, etc) and Phones The percent of daily life is migrating to the right with Pads Marketing will track where people spend their time Pads and Phone walk around with people where TVs and PCs don t There s a $1 trillion market at stake There s a $500 billion market at stake just in devices & operator rev There s another $500 billion market at stake in applications & services 17

18 $500 Billion Battle for SmartPhones Apple ios RIM Google Android OS HTC Samsung Motorola SmartPhone Market $400 per Device Growth to 600 million Devices (over next five years) $240 Billion Market at Stake $500 Billion Market Operator Basic Fee Market: There s another $360 billion in operator revenue: $50/month x 600 million subs BlackBerry OS Microsoft HTC Samsung Toshiba Nokia Windows Phone OS HP Web OS Note: does not include software and services which is in addition to devices & base operator revenue. 18

19 2012 Mobile & Wireless Trends App Stores explode Device manufacturers, carriers, 3 rd parties Next big thing: cloud apps (e.g. Apple icloud) Tablets enter mainstream Apple ipad, Samsung TAB, Amazon Kindle Fire Mobile advertising Mobile optimized browsing ads In-app advertising (iad) Microsoft play in mobile still unknown Windows Phone 7 looks promising with Nokia Mobile commerce goes mainstream Payments via mobile (phone, tablet) become dominant with NFC Mobile to mobile commerce emerging Mo-So-Lo Mobile + social + location new buzz area in mobile 19

20 US-Asia Connection in Mobile (Think: designed here built there) 20

21 Asia US Connection Most products conceived in the US Components built in Japan & Korea Displays, flash memory, CPUs Manufacturing mostly in China For US Markets Integration & packaging in the US Distribution in the US For Asian Markets Integration and packaging in China Shipment to Asian region & then distributed/sold 21

22 Mega Issues Asia/US Affect of tablets on the Asia/US ecosystem: Similar in that design is US centric & manufacturing is Asian centric Different from smartphones as software will be more important Watch for India to have a major impact on mobile software What is the impact on the hardware makers? Asia is ahead of the U.S. in some areas such mobile payment systems and mobile video Watch for US to catch up and then lead in mobile commerce Asia will continue to innovate Differences in Asia and US mobile markets Design is more important to US customers Features is more important to Asia customers China leads in wireless The most subscribers (650 million + 1 million a month) The most infrastructure 22

23 For More Information: J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, MobileTrax (404)