Visual Networking Index (VNI), Forecast of Global IP Traffic Increase and IP Bandwidth Network Management

Transcription

1 J. Basic. Appl. Sci. Res., 1(9) , , TextRoad Publication ISSN X Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research Visual Networking Index (VNI), Forecast of Global IP Traffic Increase and IP Bandwidth Network Management Opara Felix Kelechi, Agbaraji Emmanuel Chukwudi, and Aririguzo Marvis Ijeaku Department of Electrical Electronic Engineering, Federal University of Technology Owerri ABSTRACT The Internet Protocol (IP) traffic had been growing strongly thereby increasing the possibility of IP Traffic implications in the future. Visual Network Index (VNI) is designed to provide a customized view and qualitative analysis of the IP Traffic growth in various categories and types of global IP network, respectively, within a specified period of time. This paper focuses on the state of global IP Traffic growth based on the Cisco VNI forecast 2009 to 2014 and further considering mobile Data Forecast from 2010 to From these, it was confirmed that the global IP traffic will quadruple from 2009 to However, IP Traffic will continue to be dominated by Video and, by 2015, almost 66% of the world s mobile data traffic will be video. Middle East and Africa will be expected to generate significant IP traffic in the near future growing at a fastest pace compared to other regions. Thus, the provision of IP bandwidth management will aid to maintain success sequel to the IP traffic remarkable improvement. KEY WORDS: Visual Networking Index, IP Traffic, CAGR, Internet Video, Mobile Data, P2P, QoS. INTRODUCTION Internet traffic is approximately doubling each year [1, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, and 16]. This defines the major reason Cisco developed the Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast and Methodology. Given the ramifications and implications of prior Internet traffic growth rates, Cisco felt compelled to provide a realistic forecast that is based on multiple levels and sources of real data and projections [3, 17]. The findings from these VNI forecasts are of great importance to the ISPs, the end users and the industry at large. The main objective of VNI is to provide customized projections of the Internet traffic growth on the instantaneous status of the IP Traffic in various categories of global IP networks. The scope of this VNI forecast focuses on projections based on the primary contributors to the present terrific IP Traffic growth and the situation in Middle East and Africa within the period 2009 to 2014 and also staring the future. The forecast proved its necessity especially for the ISPs and the End-Users by providing a learning platform and large surface area of traffic growth awareness, providing qualitative analysis of IP traffic generated within all ramifications of the Internet. Consequently, the consumers can inculcate growth in their infrastructures to ensure consistency, delivery and general success in their operations. Also, this provides a means by which the developing regions such as Middle East and Africa can monitor their IP traffic growth rate and be able to point out the improvement measures. The developed regions such as North America can also from this analysis regulate and manage IP traffic generation so as to eschew deadlock in their operations. The global IP Traffic will quadruple from 2009 to 2014 with the Consumer Internet Traffic including all forms of Internet videos contributing immensely to this vigorous Internet traffic growth [6, 7, and 20]. Middle East and Africa are expected to contribute significantly in the global IP traffic in near future. Therefore, the IP bandwidth management scheme should be employed proactively to avoid the traffic implications that may result from this IP traffic growth. OVERVIEW The Internet is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use the standard Internet Protocol Suite (TCP/IP) to serve billions of users worldwide. It is a network of networks that consists of millions of private, public, academic, business, and government networks, of local to global scope, that are linked by a broad array of electronic, wireless and optical networking technologies [19]. IP Traffic, which is another name for Internet traffic is the flow of data in the Internet. The success of the internet is attributed to the simplicity and robustness of the protocol that ties it together, Internet Protocol (IP) [9]. Currently everyone wants to operate on *Corresponding Author: Agbaraji Emmanuel Chukwudi, , Department of Electrical Electronic Engineering, Federal University of Technology Owerri. wattchux@yahoo.com 1094

2 Kelechi et al., 2011 the IP. Major drivers include telephone companies wishing to replace the traditional circuit-switched voice networks by carrying voice on IP networks, and multi-site operators wanting to replace their dedicated connections with virtual private networks (VPN) over the shared IP networks [9]. Unlike protocols such as ATM, all data that go through IP are equally forwarded on best-effort basis. Quality of Service (QoS) is then employed to streamline IP to meet its expectations. In simplistic terms, one can define QoS as paying more to get better service [4, 9], creating a way for the Net to be self-sustaining. Hence, the ability to divvy up bandwidth owned by a service provider for Qos is referred to as bandwidth management [9]. To measure Internet traffic, a test called "ping" is used to measure round-trip travel time along major paths on the Internet. Several servers in different areas of the globe perform the same ping at the same time. Each test server then compares the current response to past responses from the same test to determine if the response was bad or good on a scale of 0 to 100. The scores from all test servers are averaged together into a single index. While the Global Index is the overall average of the response rating from all servers queried in the Internet Traffic report. Higher Index means faster Internet [2]. However, the traffic index is a score from 0 to 100 where 0 is slow and 100 is fast. It is determined by comparing the current response of a ping echo to all previous responses from the same router over the past 7 days. A score of 0 to 100 is then assigned to the current response depending on if this response is better or worse than all previous responses from that router [2]. Response Time in reference to Internet traffic is how long it takes a chunk of data to travel from point A to point B and back (round trip). A typical response time on the Internet is 200 milliseconds [2]. This relates to the internet users because the Internet surfing safari for example, may be smooth today, but perhaps the user can not reach Yahoo or a few other web sites. This web site will tell, if those regions of the Internet are currently slowed down. Hence by checking the Internet Traffic Report, the user can determine if the problems are global or local [2]. Visual Networking The variety of consumer and business IP networking trends is largely being driven by video and social networking/collaboration (such as Web 2.0 technologies), the combination of which is termed visual networking. A visual networking experience can range from a prearranged TelePresence meeting to the fluid and flawless delivery of video to any device a consumer chooses such as TV, PC, or mobile handset [3]. Cisco VNI Pulse activities provide qualitative views of consumer network usage patterns and trends through direct data collection from surveys and free applications. This is designed to provide consumers with individual and aggregate global data on usage trends and mobile network speeds. An interactive Cisco VNI Forecast widget is available to enable users to create custom forecast charts by region, country, application, and end-user segment [7]. The Zettabyte Scale (Source: Cisco, 2008) An exabyte is 1,000,000,000 gigabytes 1Petabyte = 1,000 Terabytes or 250,000 DVD 1Exabyte = 1,000 Petabytes or 250 milliondvds 1Zettabyte = 1,000 Exabytes or 250 billion DVDs 1Yottabytes = 1,000 Zetabytes or 250 trillion DVDs GLOBAL IP TRAFFIC GROWTH The Global IP Traffic forecast is generally categorized into three (Table 1): by Type, Segment and Geography. Global IP Traffic by Type is further grouped into Internet, Managed IP and Mobile Data. Internet denotes all IP traffic that crosses an Internet backbone. Managed IP includes corporate IP WAN traffic, IP transport of TV/VoD. Mobile includes mobile data and Internet traffic generated by handsets, notebook cards, and mobile broadband gateways. The Global IP Traffic by Segment is also divided into Consumer and Business. Consumer includes fixed IP traffic generated by households, university populations, and Internet cafés. Business includes fixed IP WAN or Internet traffic generated by businesses and governments [6, 14, and 18]. The category by Geography is divided into seven IP traffic regions: North America, Western Europe, Asia Pacific, Japan, Latin America, Central Eastern Europe, and Middle East and Africa. The Global Consumer IP Traffic is categorized into two: by Type and Geography [6, 18] (table 2). Consumer Internet Traffic This encompasses any IP traffic that crosses the Internet and is not confined to a single service provider s network. P2P traffic, still the largest share of Internet traffic today, is expected to decrease as a percentage of overall Internet traffic [6, 18] (table 3). The Sub-Segment is subdivided into the following [6, 18]. 1095

3 J. Basic. Appl. Sci. Res., 1(9) , 2011 Web, , and Data: This generally encompasses web browsing, , instant messaging, data (which includes file transfer using HTTP, FTP, etc.) and other Internet applications excluding file sharing. Note that data may include the download of video files that are not captured by the Internet video to PC forecast. It includes traffic generated by all individual Internet users. An Internet user is here defined as someone who accesses the Internet through a desktop or laptop at home, school, Internet café, or other location outside the context of a business [6, 18]. File Sharing: Includes peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic from all recognized P2P systems such as BitTorrent, edonkey, etc., as well as traffic from web-based file sharing systems. A large portion of P2P traffic is due to the exchange of video files, so a total view of the impact of video on the network should count P2P video traffic (estimated to be approximately 70 to 80% of P2P in 2009) in addition to the traffic counted in the Internet Video to PC and Internet Video to TV categories [6, 18]. The P2P category is limited to traditional file exchange [5] and does not include commercial video-streaming applications that are delivered through P2P, such as PPStream or PPLive. Today, P2P applications are the most contributors to traffic growth [6, 18] Internet Gaming: This primarily includes the traffic generated from game-play [6, 18] such as casual online gaming, networked console gaming, and multiplayer virtual world gaming. Voice over IP (VoIP): This category includes phone-based VoIP services direct from a service provider, phonebased VoIP services offered by a third-party but transported by a service provider, and softphone-based Internet VoIP applications such as Skype [6, 18]. Such traffic includes retail VoIP services and PC-based VoIP, but excludes wholesale VoIP transport. Video Communications: The Video Communications category includes Internet video calling, video instant messaging, video monitoring, and webcam traffic. This segment is relatively small for the forecast period, but is included for tracking purposes, because it is expected to experience substantial long-term growth in the timeframe [6, 18]. Internet Video to PC: This refers to online video that is downloaded or streamed for viewing on a PC screen. It excludes peer-to-peer downloads, and is distinct from Internet-delivery of video to a TV screen through a set-top box (STB) or equivalent device. Much of the video viewed on PC is short-form content, and a large part of it is made up of free clips, episodes, and other content offered by traditional content producers such as movie studios and television networks [6, 18]. Short form includes user-generated video and other video clips generally less than 7 minutes in length. Long form includes video content generally greater than 7 minutes in length. Live TV includes peer-to-peer TV and live television streaming over the Internet. Internet PVR involves recording live TV content for later viewing. Ambient video includes Nannycams, petcams, home security cams, and other persistent video streams [6, 18]. Internet Video to TV: The category includes video delivered via Internet to a TV screen, by way of an Internetenabled set-top box or equivalent device. Examples of devices now available include Microsoft s Xbox 360 and the Roku digital video player, through which users can download film and television content [6, 18]. Consumer Managed IP Traffic, : The Managed IP Video refers to IP traffic generated by traditional commercial TV services. This traffic remains within the footprint of a single service provider, so it is not considered Internet traffic [6]. Business IP Traffic: The enterprise forecast is based on the number of network-connected computers worldwide. An average business user might generate 4 GB per month of Internet and WAN traffic. A large-enterprise user would generate significantly more traffic, 8 10 GB per month. Business Internet traffic includes all business traffic that crosses the public Internet. Business managed IP includes all business traffic that is transported over IP, but remains within the corporate WAN, Business mobile data includes all business traffic that crosses a mobile access point [6, 18]. Mobile Data and Internet Traffic: Mobile data traffic (Table 4) includes handset-based data traffic, such as text messaging, multimedia messaging, and handset video services. Mobile Internet traffic is generated by wireless cards for portable computers and handset-based mobile Internet usage [6, 18]. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS The results of this research were based mostly on the Cisco Visual Network Index on global Internet Protocol traffic forecast. 1096

4 Kelechi et al., 2011 Table 1. Global IP Traffic, IP Traffic, CAGR By Type (PB per Month) Internet 10,942 15,205 21,181 28,232 36,709 47,176 34% Managed IP 3,652 4,963 6,771 8,851 11,078 13,199 29% Mobile Data ,158 2,132 3, % By Segment (PB per Month) Consumer 11,602 16,534 23,750 32,545 43,117 55,801 37% Business 3,083 3,862 4,740 5,697 6,801 8,103 21% By Geography (PB per Month) North America 5,115 7,091 10,051 12,988 16,136 19,019 30% Western Europe 3,495 4,818 6,712 9,261 12,417 16,158 36% Asia Pacific 3,920 5,367 7,295 9,815 12,985 17,421 35% Japan 1,068 1,539 2,149 2,855 3,591 4,300 32% Latin America ,026 1,527 2,274 3,479 51% Central Eastern Europe ,306 1,815 2,510 38% Middle East and Africa ,018 45% Total (PB per Month) Total IP traffic 14,686 20,396 28,491 38,242 49,919 63,904 34% Source: Cisco VNI, 2010 Table 2. Global Consumer IP Traffic, Consumer IP Traffic, CAGR By Type (PB per Month) Internet 8,930 12,684 18,092 24,546 32,361 42,070 36% Managed IP 2,606 3,680 5,248 7,095 9,059 10,875 33% Mobile Data ,697 2, % By Geography (PB per Month) North America 4,095 5,831 8,539 11,219 14,100 16,676 32% Western Europe 2,672 3,802 5,495 7,815 10,658 13,994 39% Asia Pacific 3,421 4,701 6,434 8,735 11,661 15,820 36% Japan 735 1,126 1,633 2,229 2,856 3,459 36% Latin America ,246 1,920 3,043 57% Central Eastern Europe ,040 1,518 2,173 47% Middle East and Africa % Total (PB per Month) Consumer IP Traffic 11,602 16,534 23,750 32,545 43,117 55,801 37% Source: Cisco VNI, Table 3. Global Consumer Internet Traffic, Consumer Internet Traffic, CAGR By Sub-Segment (PB per Month) File Sharing 4,091 5,075 6,197 7,492 9,125 11,340 23% Internet Video 2,776 4,725 7,718 11,026 14,838 19,468 48% Internet Video to TV ,502 2,686 4, % Web/Data 1,688 2,273 3,006 3,930 4,933 6,134 29% Video Calling % Online Gaming % VoIP % By Geography (PB per Month) North America 2,279 3,351 5,015 6,495 8,096 9,652 33% Western Europe 2,277 3,179 4,538 6,361 8,541 11,143 37% Asia Pacific 3,251 4,416 5,961 7,944 10,475 13,856 34% Japan ,062 1,457 1,857 2,286 37% Latin America ,132 1,727 2,726 56% Central Eastern Europe ,336 1,893 44% Middle East and Africa % Total (PB per Month) Consumer Internet Traffic 8,930 12,684 18,092 24,546 32,361 42,070 36% Source: Cisco VNI,

5 J. Basic. Appl. Sci. Res., 1(9) , 2011 Table 4. Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, Mobile Data and Internet Traffic, CAGR By Geography (PB per Month) North America % Western Europe , % Asia Pacific % Japan % Latin America % Central Eastern Europe % Middle East and Africa % Total (PB per Month) Mobile Data and Internet , , % Source: Cisco VNI, 2010 Fig.1 Cisco Forecasts 6.3 Exabytes per Month of Mobile Data Traffic by 2015 [8]. Fig. 2: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by Region [8] Research Highlights of VNI Forecast From this study, by 2014, global IP traffic approached 767 exabytes per year (64 exabytes per month). Global IP traffic quadrupled over the forecast period 2009 to Overall, IP traffic grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% and Global Internet video traffic continued to surpass global peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic from 2011 to 2014 with a higher growth as recorded. 1098

6 Kelechi et al., 2011 Global Consumer Highlights Internet generated the highest consumer IP traffic (42 exabytes per month) of the Types while Mobile Data grew fastest at 112% CAGR. The highest Consumer IP traffic of the regions was generated by North America (16.7 exabytes per month). Middle East and Africa grew at the highest growth rate of the regions at 64% CAGR. Global Video Highlights Internet video grew over one-third of all Consumer Internet traffic, and will grow to 19.5 exabytes per month by The sum of all forms of video will continue to exceed 91% of global consumer traffic by Advanced Internet video 3-Dimension (3D) and High Definition (HD) grew heavily. Video communications traffic increased and grew in popularity globally including Consumer Internet Video to TV traffic. Global Mobile Highlights Global mobile data traffic doubled every year through 2014, increasing 39 times over the forecast period. Mobile data traffic grew at a CAGR of 108% between 2009 and 2014, reaching 3.6 exabytes per month by Approximately 66% of the world s mobile data traffic will be video by Mobile video grew at a CAGR of 131% between 2009 and 2014 recording the highest CAGR of any application category measured within the mobile data portion of this Cisco VNI Forecast. Middle East and Africa was recorded to generate the highest mobile data CAGR of any region at 133% CAGR, followed by Asia Pacific at 119% and North America at 117%. Regional Highlights IP traffic grew fastest in Latin America (51% CAGR), followed by the Middle East and Africa (45% CAGR) over the forecast period. North America will be the highest IP traffic generating region (19 exabytes per month) at a CAGR of 30% while Middle East and Africa will generate the lowest IP traffic (1 exabyte per month) by Global Mobile Data Traffic, Mobile data traffic grew at a CAGR of 92% from 2010 to The annual growth rates was reported to taper over the forecast period from 131% in 2011 to 64% in 2015, Figure 1, suffices. Middle East and Africa was reported to experience the highest CAGR of 129%, increasing 63-fold over the forecast period, as shown in Figure 2. The Future Outlook for Mobile Data Traffic Growth Based On the Updated Forecast Major findings of the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast, , include [17]: Global mobile data traffic was reported to increase 26-fold over 2010 to 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes per month by 2015 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 92%. There will be nearly one mobile device per person by There will be over 7.1 billion mobileconnected devices, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules, in 2015, approximately equal to the world s population in 2015 (7.2 billion). Mobile network connection speeds will increase 10-fold by The average mobile connection speed (215 kbps in 2010) will grow at a CAGR of 60%, and will exceed 2.2 Mbps in Two-thirds of the world s mobile data traffic will be video traffic by Mobile video traffic will be more than double every year between 2010 and Mobile-connected tablets will generate as much traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network did in The average smartphone will generate over 1 GB per month in 2015, a 16-fold increase over the 2010 average of 79 MB per month. Average handset usage grew 31-fold between 2010 and The average handset (smartphones and basic handsets combined) will generate 367 MB per month by 2015, up from 12 MB per month in The Middle East and Africa recorded the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region at 129% CAGR, followed by Latin America at 111% and Central and Eastern Europe at 102%. This rate of IP traffic growth as forecasted, if not put into consideration could result to higher possibility of IP traffic complication occurrences. Consequently, problems such as slow or poor network services which may result to users inability to read pages or get services from web sites in some of the regions, insufficient bandwidth availability whereby some users may not be able to carry out some online services that consume or require higher bandwidth (such as video communications, internet game, etc), network and data vulnerabilities which may result due to high traffic 1099

7 J. Basic. Appl. Sci. Res., 1(9) , 2011 because it may be difficult to identify illegitimate or unauthenticated users (intruders) and other hackers activities, Computer virus (malware) spread and total network/system failures, etc occurrences may escalate. Thence, the IP bandwidth network management was developed to monitor, filter and direct the flow of the internet protocol traffic in the network by introducing some management techniques (such as QoS, etc) in order to mitigate the occurrences of these IP traffic problems and to optimize the internet service usage in the future. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION The vigorous IP Traffic growth brought about the concepts of Visual Network Index. The purpose of which was achieved, providing customized views of the various categories of network traffic growth around the globe. The Internet was revealed to continue to be the primary driver of the IP traffic till 2014 as a result of the high IP traffic generated from the Consumer Internet IP Traffic in which the sum of all forms of video will continue to exceed 91% of Global Consumer Traffic by 2014 contributing to the expectation that the Global IP Traffic will quadruple from 2009 to IP Traffic will continue to be dominate by Video and almost 66% of the world s mobile data traffic will be video up to Middle East and Africa will generate the largest mobile data traffic growth at 133% of the geographic regions which implies that the region is expected to have a significant share of the IP Traffic in the near future. The Managed IP will not contribute significantly to the IP Traffic implications in the future due to its lowest CAGR estimated. The Middle East and Africa will have the lowest share of the IP Traffic in 2009 to 2014 due to the currently suspected level of infrastructural development especially in power sector. The constraint was confirmed with the tremendous CAGR of Mobile data recorded, which depends on mobile battery power supply. Therefore, it was recommended that the provision of reliable power supply will boost a healthy IP Traffic growth in Middle East and Africa. The pace of the global IP traffic growth is expected to be very high which may define terrific IP traffic implications in the future such as slow internet service, insufficient bandwidth, network inability to convey some forms of IP traffic due to their higher technological nature and eventually, total IP traffic failure in some regions. As a result, there must be IP bandwidth network management at every level of traffic source so as to maintain success in the IP traffic growth. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We wish to thank Almighty God for His blessings. Also, we wish to thank Engr. Dr. F.K., Opara Head of Department, Electrical & Electronic Engineering, Federal University of Technology for his teachings and contributions. Our regard goes to all who contributed in any way for this achievement. REFERENCE 1. Odlyzko, A. M., Internet Traffic Growth: Sources and Implications. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA 2. Internet Traffic Report 2011, Retrieved on February 7, 2011 from 3. Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast Q&A, Cisco Systems Inc., San Jose CA, USA. 4. Ferguson P., Huston G., Quality of Service: Delivering QoS on the Internet and in Corporate Networks, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., ISBN Leydon, J., P2P swamps broadband networks. Retrieved on February 7, 2011 from 6. Cisco Visual Networking Index, Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, Cisco Systems Inc., San Jose CA, USA. 7. Cisco Visual Networking Index, Hyperconnectivity and the Approaching Zettabyte Era. Cisco Systems Inc., San Jose CA, USA. 8. Cisco Visual Networking Index, Global Mobile Data Traffic, Forecast Update Cisco Systems Inc., San Jose CA, USA. 9. Jamal, H. S., IP Bandwidth Management. Retrieved on February 7, 2011 from

8 Kelechi et al., Malik, O, Big Growth for the Internet Ahead, Cisco Says. Retrieved on February 9, 2011 from Coffman, K. G., Odlyzko A. M., Internet growth: Is there a Moore s Law for data traffic? AT&T Labs Research, MN, USA 12. Odlyzko, A. M., Internet Traffic Growth: Myth and Reality, Use and Abuse. AT&T Labs Research Coffman, K.G., Odlyzko, A.M., The Size and Growth Rate of the Internet, Cisco Visual Networking Index, Global IP Traffic Forecast and Methodology , Cisco Systems Inc., San Jose CA, USA. 15. Cisco Visual Networking Index, Approaching the Exabyte Era. Cisco Systems Inc., San Jose CA, USA. 16. Chambers, J., Network Traffic to Grow up to Six-folds annually, Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast Q&A, Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Cisco Systems Inc., San Jose CA, USA. 18. Cisco Visual Network Index, Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, Cisco Systems Inc., San Jose CA, USA. 19. Wikipedia, Internet. Retrieved on February 2, 2011 from Zawya, Annual Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast Projects Global IP Traffic to Increase More Than Fourfold by Retrieved on March 24, 2011 from ACRONYMS ATM Asynchronous Transfer Mode CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate FTP File Transfer Protocol HD High Definition HTTP HyperText Transfer Protocol IP - Internet Protocol ISP Internet Service Provider M2M - Machine to Machine P2P Peer to Peer QoS Quality of Service STB Set Top Box TCP Transport Control Protocol VNI Visual Networking Index VoD Video on Demand VoIP Voice over Internet Protocol VPN Virtual Private Network 1101