Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR) Establishing a on Climate and Water Carol Chouchani Cherfane, ESCWA, RICCAR Coordinator with contributions from Tarek Sadek, Joelle Comair, Nanor Momjian (ESCWA) Regional Workshop on Moving from Climate Change Impact Assessment to Socio-Economic Impact Assessment in Arab Region (Beirut, 8-10 June 2015) RICCAR Objective To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater resources in the Arab Region through a consultative and integrated regional initiative that seeks to identify the socio-economic and environmental vulnerability caused by climate change impacts on water resources based on regional specificities. RICCAR aims to provide a common platform for assessing, addressing and informing response to climate change impacts on freshwater resources in the Arab region by serving as the basis for dialogue, priority setting and policy formulation on climate change at the regional level. Assessment Adaptation Mitigation Negotiations 2 1
RICCAR Implementation Framework: Four Pillars Integrated Assessment Climate Change Impact Assessment Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Capacity Building & Institutional Strengthening for Water Ministries, Meteorological Offices, Agricultural Ministries, Environmental Agencies, Arab Research Centers Awareness Raising & Information Dissemination Climate Data Water Data Socio- Economic Data UNFCCC Communications Regional Hydrological Modeling Outputs Regional Knowledge Hub Regional Climate Modeling Outputs IWRM Plans Vulnerability Mapping 2
Accessing MENA/Arab Domain CORDEX Projections via Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se LAS RICCAR Projections in NetCDF can be visualized using ArcGIS10.x Disaster Information Management Database http://www.desinventar.net/index_www.html 3
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Working Group Objective: To advise on the terms of reference and criteria for selecting a suitable institution for hosting the. Tasks: Define form and function of Prepare terms of reference Formulate selection criteria Suggest potential host institutions (long-list) Composition (10 members): 3 Arab Governments (Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen) 3 Arab Organizations (LAS, ACSAD, CEDARE) 3 UN Organizations (ESCWA, UNISDR, UNU-INWEH) 1 Expert Organizations (GIZ) Duration: January 2013-May 2014 Meeting: January 2013. Virtual Consultation on TOR, Criteria, Long-List: 2013-14 Main Objectives Per RKH-WG To provide access to information that can facilitate cooperation, coordination, dialogue and exchange among Arab countries. To support regional networking and exchange. To support awareness raising for national and local stakeholders. To provide capacity building support. To develop an early warning platform by establishing a simple disaster early warning component. 5
on Water and Climate Functionality and Services Per RKH-WG Provision of 2-D integrated mapping tools. Ability to show comparative analysis between countries. Search engine that allows finding raw data, reports, historical trends, people and institutions. Interactivity/network function component to allow linkage to different institutions. Traffic monitoring of website. Provision of User-friendly applications and products to respond to all potential users. Contents Per RKH-WG Climate Change projections, integrated assessment outputs and inputs. Maps and associated analysis Interactive tool to carry out vulnerability assessment and simulate different scenarios. Data, information and model outputs. Case studies. Publication library and provide links to other information sources. Images library. Learning tools. Disaster early warning component linked to UNISDR Prevention Web. Links to other resources 6
Government Decision and policy makers Target Audiences and Users Universities and research centers Regional organizations Per RKH-WG Parliamentarians Primary group Civil society Secondary group Water utilities Financial institutions Private sector International development organizations RKH-WG Proposal: Governance Structure Per RKH-WG 1) should be supervised by an Executive Board or Advisory Body 2) Executive Board should report to a LAS Body, e.g.: AMWC Technical Committee and/or Climate and Climate Change Committee 3) Governance structure should be set out in an enabling document with a regulatory and legislative basis. 14 7
Technical Criteria and Requirements for Selection of RKH Host Institution Technical Experience Credibility and Communication Selection Criteria Accessibility and Reliability Sustainability and Ownership RICCAR Arab Ministerial Water Council (AMWC) RKH Advisors (GIZ) Regional Knowledge Hub ACSAD-ESCWA Coordinating Secretariat FAO FENIX Platform Network Structure Approved by AMWC (Doha, May 2014) Agricultural Node (FAO) Thematic Nodes Water & Climate Node 8
FENIX Platform http://fenix.fao.org/demo/fenix/ Preliminary Content on RKH RCM RHM VA 12 selected variables (available 50 variables) 3 time-frequency (2 seasons, 1 annual) 3 time periods (minimum) 3 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 8.5) 15,500 files Two File Formats Raster Image + Bias-corrected RCM files for those used in RHM VIC+HYPE 16 variables 3 time-frequency (2 seasons, 1 annual) 4 time periods 2 models + ensemble 10 regions and sub-regions 3 RCPs 17,280 files + HEC-HMS 20 variables 4 study areas 3 RCP 180 files Two File Formats: Raster Image 10 sub-sectors (potential impacts) 5 Exposure indicators 3 time-periods 2 RCPs 18 Sensitivity indicators 31 Adaptive capacity indicators +aggregation maps 300 Exposure indicator files 60 Exposure aggregation 180 Sensitivity indicator files 30 Sensitivity aggregation 310 Adaptive Capacity files 10 Adaptive Capacity aggregation 890 files 9
RICCAR Website Information on RICCAR & Partners Links Arab CC Assessment Report Case study reports Meeting Reports & documentation Workshop Documents Training Materials Requests for services Data Portal: RICCAR Data Sets RCM Bias-Corrected Outputs RHM Outputs VA Maps (value-based) VA Maps (normalized/classified) VA Aggregations Open Access Institutional Strengthening ArabCOF Under Establishment Scoping Meeting for the Establishment of an Arab Climate Outlook Forum (Amman, October 2014) Organized at request of Arab Permanent Committee for Meteorology Organized by LAS, WMO, ESCWA & Hosted by Jordan Met Department with Sida support ArabCOF Terms of Reference drafted & under review MENA CORDEX Working Group Preliminary RCM Ensemble Meeting (Brussels, 2013) First CORDEX MENA-CA Meeting (Nicosia, Nov 2014) Organized by CORDEX (WMO) with SMHI & hosted by The Cyprus Institute KAU, KAUST, ESCWA attended & several modeling institutes Contributing additional projections on Arab Domain SMHI & The Cyprus Institute managing domain: Arab Met Services were solicited. 10
Arab Climate Outlook Forum Scoping Meeting hosted by Jordan Purpose (Amman, Nov 2014) Regular seasonal forecast products for the Arab region. Regional assessments of climate extremes based on national inputs. Climate/climate change monitoring and assessment Regional assessment of climate change scenarios and their implications. Improved and accurate climate data and enhanced monitoring capacity. Provision of regional climate information to help responding to user needs (hydrology, agriculture, health, etc.). Regular capacity development efforts and promotion of common approaches for climate services by Arab countries Better user awareness and sustainable platform for user interface. Governance Approved by Arab Permanent Committee for Meteorology (Jeddah, 25-30 March 2015) UAE offered to host ArabCOF, with budgetary review currently underway with LAS Technical Secretariat and ESCWA. Long-Term Vision Arab Ministerial Water Council (AMWC) Arab Permanent Committee on Meteorology (APCM) Regional Knowledge Hub Arab for Climate and Water (mechanism) Regional Climate Outlook Forum Arab Climate Outlook Forum (annual meetings) RKH Advisors UN-LAS Coordinating Secretariat UAE Met Service Knowledge Hub Network Agriculture (FAO) Adatpation (tbc) Negotiations (tbc) Seasonal Forecasts Climate Prediction/ Projection 11
RICCAR Partners Implementing Partners Cairo Office LAS Donors Contributing Research Institutes supporting Regional Climate Modelling Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/ King Abdulaziz University (CECCR/KAU) - KSA King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST ) - KSA 23 Climate Services Center (CSC) - Germany Thank you! www.escwa.un.org/riccar 24 12