5G worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes and technology developments Research Report 5G outlook for Asia Pacific: market impact and standardisation programmes March 2015 Chris Nicoll and Sherrie Huang Analysys Mason Limited 2014
2 About this report This report analyses the implications of the forthcoming 5G standards for regulators, mobile network operators (MNOs) and technology companies, such as network and device manufacturers, in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. Figure 1: Summary of network equipment vendors, mobile operators and industry bodies mentioned in this report. [Source: Analysys Mason, 2015] Vendors and operators Industry bodies and government-backed initiatives It is based on several sources: Analysys Mason s internal research, including forecasts of fixed and wireless traffic and consumer surveys interviews with operators, equipment vendors and stakeholders in governmental policy areas governmental and standards bodies publications on 5G. Alcatel-Lucent China Mobile Cisco Systems Ericsson Huawei Korea Telecom (KT) Nokia Networks NTT Docomo Samsung SK Telecom Singtel Xiaomi ZTE 5G Forum ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc Group IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group Ministry of Science and Technology s 863 Program, China Ministry of Economic Affairs and National Science Council, Taiwan Key questions answered in this report What does 5G mean to APAC, and what is the difference when compared with the rest of the world? What will be the impact of 5G on the telecoms industry? Will 5G extend beyond the radio access network into the core and if so, how far will it go? Will 5G be a next generation of 4G and what will it mean for the building and operation of networks? Which of the many participating organisations are driving the technology development and standards work for 5G? Who needs to read this report The network, spectrum and technology strategy teams of mobile operators that have operations in APAC. Network vendor R&D, strategy and operator account teams that would like to get involved in 5G development in APAC. Regulators and policy teams responsible for licensed, lightly licensed and unlicensed spectrum policy in APAC. Industry bodies in APAC associated with assigning and managing spectrum used in fixed and mobile networking.
3 Executive summary and key implications The impact of 5G on the telecoms industry in APAC The vision for 5G and the status of standardisation programmes 5G development efforts in APAC About the authors and Analysys Mason
14 Key to the 5G vision is that networks must be higher performing, and more virtualised and service-driven than today s networks To date, cellular technology (2G/3G/4G) has evolved to improve spectrum efficiency, coverage and capacity, and generate sufficient revenue from data traffic (the volume of which has grown exponentially in recent years). The vision for 5G appears more revolutionary, but is also a wish list for improvements to nearly all aspects of telecoms and service delivery, including: virtualised infrastructure, software defined, cloud oriented for lower-cost networks that are more flexible and scalable service-driven networks, user-experience-driven rather than transport-oriented, offering telco-grade reliability real-time performance, supporting voice and interactive video everything connected, incorporating M2M and IoT as well as smartphones and other consumer devices. Figure 4: Key drivers and requirements for 5G [Source: Analysys Mason, 2015] Software-defined network Scalable, low-cost systems Virtualised infrastructure IoT and M2M Fast response time Low jitter, latency and delay High availability Real-time performance 5G Very highspeed broadband Critical infrastructure High reliability Priority access Very wide area coverage Many more connected devices Deep indoor coverage Signalling efficiency Gigabit data rates High-quality coverage Multi-spectrum service
21 Multiple stakeholders in APAC are influencing 5G development, including MNOs, governments, equipment vendors and research institutions Figure 9: 5G development stakeholders [Source: Analysys Mason, 2015] Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (ARIB) 5G Forum IMT-2020 Government initiatives Tokyo Institute of Technology Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI) 3GPP Standards bodies ITU-R NGMN Alliance WWRF Qualcomm Huawei Technologies Samsung Equipment vendors Academic and research institutions Operators China Unicom China Mobile Ericsson Nokia Networks ZTE Alcatel-Lucent 5G SK Telecom NTT DOCOMO China Telecom
26 Executive summary and key implications The impact of 5G on the telecoms industry in APAC The vision for 5G and the status of standardisation programmes 5G development efforts in APAC About the authors and Analysys Mason
27 About the authors Chris Nicoll (Practice Head) is the head of Analysys Mason s Network Technologies and Enterprise and M2M research practices. His primary areas of specialisation include wireless access technologies, wireless traffic forecasting, mobile infrastructure and operator strategy. Chris has more than 20 years of expertise as a leader in defining telecoms strategy. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Chris held Principal Analyst positions at ACG Research and Nicoll Consulting, where he developed marketing strategy and positioning for leading telecoms operators. At Yankee Group, Chris was a member of the Yankee Group Research Council and provided thought leadership to the research organisation. At Lucent and Alcatel-Lucent, Chris was director of strategic marketing, overseeing the company s corporate positioning and messaging, including public affairs and analyst relations. Chris also led the Telecom Infrastructure team at Current Analysis, where he developed a global analyst team, as well as oversaw consulting engagements and managed client relationships. Chris has also held marketing and network engineering positions at Netrix, Tymnet and Visual Networks. Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason s Asia Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 15 key markets as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends in the region. Sherrie has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile services and has covered the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecasting, end-user case studies, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia Pacific countries in product marketing, project management, and research and consulting roles.
28 About Analysys Mason Knowing what s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. Consulting Enterprise and M2M Regional markets Network technologies Telecoms software Consumer services Strategy and planning Regulation and policy Performance improvement Transaction support Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy. We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit www.analysysmason.com/consulting. Research We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts. Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit www.analysysmason.com/research.
5G worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes and technology developments Published by Analysys Mason Limited Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 Fax: +44 (0)20 7395 9001 Email: research@analysysmason.com www.analysysmason.com/research Registered in England No. 5177472. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any clientspecific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party. Analysys Mason Limited 2014