Optical Tape: Technology and Progress Update MicroContinuum, Inc. Mark Kempster MicroContinuum,, Inc. 57 Smith Place, Cambridge, MA 02138 Tele: 301.464.3011 -or- 617.354.1092 www.microcontinuum microcontinuum.com Presented at the THIC Meeting at the Bahia Hotel 998 West Mission Bay Dr, San Diego CA 92109 on January 16, 2001
Optical Tape Technology and Progress Update MicroContinuum, Inc. 57 Smith Place, Cambridge, MA 02138 Tele: 301.464.3011 -or- 617.354.1092 www.microcontinuum.com Mark Kempster
The Digital Age Exabytes THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI 10,000.0 5,000.0 1,000.0 Supercomputers GeoIntelligence E-Commerce Internet Enterprise 500.0 100.0 50.0 THE INFORMATION AGE 20% Annual Growth 10.0 5.0 1997 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
The Digital Age 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Totals Terabytes Top 500 Supercomputer Data Storage Requirement 228,895 414,883 2,288,953 4,148,825 22,889,525 29,971,081 GeoIntelligence Data Storage Requirement 91,000 235,000 910,000 2,350,000 9,100,000 12,686,000 E-Commerce Data Storage Requirement 58,825 111,475 188,310 588,250 1,114,750 2,061,610 Dot.com Data Storage Requirement 107,250 234,000 331,500 468,000 663,000 1,803,750 Annual Total 482,970 995,358 3,781,763 7,555,075 32,764,000 46,522,441
Setting The Stage! Storage is a key area that will account for 75 percent of new corporate hardware spending. (Lou Gerstner, IBM chief executive, May 18, 2000 (CNET))! Storage spending is expected to grow from 4 percent of IT budgets in 1999 to 17 percent by 2003 -- a 325% increase. (Forrester Research Inc.)! Analysts who develop the Top 500 Supercomputer list predict that by 2004 only teraflop machines will be on the list. IBM plans to spend $100 million to build Blue Gene a 1,000 teraflop machine by 2005.! By 2010 nearly every organization will have its own 1,000 teraflop supercomputer. (Gordon Bell senior researcher in Microsoft's Telepresence Research Group)! Radio astronomy data collection typically 1 Gbps continuously for 24 hours at 10 stations (110 TB/day) repeated several times a month. (Alan Whitney, MIT Haystack Observatory)! Fermilab National Accelerator Laboratory, which collects particle physics data 24/7 for periods of 1-2 years generating approximately 100 EB/year. (Dr. Diesberg, Computing Division)! Discover II, SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) goal to map planet to 1 meter 3D resolution by 02-03. [Equates to 76,800 TB.] (Tom Tillotson, NRO Acting Program Manager, 1999)! National Center for Atmospheric Research stored 196 TB on 162,000 tape cartridges as of July 1999 and 250 TB by March 2000 and projects a 2,800-percent increase by 2005. (Gene Harano NCAR) International Data Corp forecasts that corporations will store 57,000,000 terabytes of information by 2004.
Storage Capacity Gigabytes UNIT STORAGE CAPACITY (circa 2000) 10,000.0 1,000.0 19 mm STK 100.0 50.0 20.0 8 mm DLT DTF-L LTO-Ultriuum and S-DLT 10.0 1998 1999 2000 Source: M. & L. Kempster, MicroContinuum, Inc. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Decreasing Storage Costs Dollars 1000 100 TAPE STORAGE SUBSYSTEMS COST TRENDS Tape Drives OEM/Integrator Cost per Gig abyte 10 1 Automated Tape Subsystems Tape Drives + 100 Tapes Tape Media Only Source: M. Leonhardt; STK; 1998. 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
MicroContinuum, Inc. Tape Storage Solutions TAPE STORAGE PYRAMID 2000 Ultra High - End > 10 PB High - End 500 TB to 10 PB Mid - Range 1 TB to 500 TB Low End < 1 TB No real solution. DD-2, DTF-L, Super DLT, Exabyte, 9840, LTO Ultrium DLT 7000 & 8000, AIT 2, DTF-L, 35xx, Exabyte, 9840, Super DLT, LTO Ultrium, LTO Accelis, DLT 4000, QIC, DAT, DTF-2, LTO Accelis Future generation
Tape Libraries $100,000,000 REPRESENTATIVE TAPE LIBRARY COSTS DD-2 $10,000,000 DLT $1,000,000 $100,000 Typical street price jukeboxes with drives and tapes. Software and maintenance excluded. Growth paths assume doubling in Capacity with no increase in drive cost. Source: M. Kempster, MicroContinuum, Inc. 1 TB 10 TB 100 TB 1,000 TB 10,000 TB
DLT and DTF Libraries $100,000,000 REPRESENTATIVE TAPE LIBRARY COSTS $10,000,000 DLT-8000 Typical street price jukeboxes with drives and tapes. Prominent hardware included. Software and maintenance excluded. $1,000,000 170 Tapes 16 Drives 96 MB/sec $89.0/GB $57.5/GB 100 Tapes 7 Drives 42 MB/sec $100,000 DTF-L $4.5/GB 150 Tapes 1 Drive 24 MB/sec Source: M. Kempster, MicroContinuum, Inc. 1 TB 10 TB 100 TB 1,000 TB 10,000 TB
Optical Tape! Proven technology with over 40 year history receiving government and private funding.! Standards committee chaired by National Institute of Science and Technology will develop American National Standard Institute standard.! Beta testing will begin by 2001.! Technology has demonstrated WORM and erasable tape with first generation density to support 1.3 terabytes and 24 MB/sec transfer rate on DTF form factor.! Optical tape technology growth will leverage optical disk technology.! Optical tape meets the WORM requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission. [Release No. 34-38245; File No. S7-21-93]! Contributors to technology development include: 3M, Avid, Calimetrics, Creo, DOW/Southwall, EMC, Honeywell, IBM, ICI, Kodak, LOTS, Lucent, MicroContinuum, Phillips, Polaroid, SAIC, TRW, and Xerox. (See: NIST ATP Focused Program in Digital Data Storage, Optical Recording Technology)! In 1985, Polaroid developed a new, low cost continuous roll process for making optical discs (CD-audio, CD-ROM, etc.). During the next 14 years, Polaroid spent millions of dollars in the development of optical media. Through an IP/licensing agreement and with permission and encouragement, the principal architects at Polaroid formed MicroContinuum, Inc. in 1998 to continue the development of optical tape.
Tape Storage Migration Gigabytes 10,000.0 5,000.0 TAPE STORAGE CAPACITY MIGRATION PATH Optical Tape-2 (3,000) Planned Migration 1,000.0 Optical Tape-1 (1,000) 500.0 DDS-2 (8) DLT2000 (7.5) DLT4000 (20) DDS-3 (12) DLT7000 (35) Mammoth-1 (20) AIT-1 (25) DLT8000 (40) Mammoth-2 (60) AIT-2 (50) Ultrium-1 (100) SDLT-1 (100) Mammoth-3 (120) AIT-3 (100) 100.0 50.0 10.0 Past Migration Ultrium-2 (200) Ultrium-3 (400) Planned Migration 5.0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Tape Storage Migration Megabytes/Sec 1,000.0 TAPE STORAGE TRANSFER RATE MIGRATION PATH 500.0 100.0 50.0 10.0 5.0 1.0 Past Migration Planned Migration Planned Migration DDS-2 (0.78) DLT2000 (1.25) DLT4000 (1.5) DDS-3 (1.2) DLT7000 (5) Mammoth-1 (3) AIT-1 (3) DLT8000 (6) Mammoth-2 (12) AIT-2 (6) Accelis-1 (25) SDLT-1 (6) Mammoth-3 (18) AIT-3 (12) Optical Tape-1 (25) Optical Tape-2 (50) Optical Tape-3 (100) Accelis-2 (40) Accelis-3 (80) 0.5 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Tape Library Costs $100,000,000 $10,000,000 OPTICAL VS MAGNETIC TAPE DD-2 DLT Optical Tape $1,000,000 $100,000 Source: M. Kempster, MicroContinuum, Inc. 1 TB 10 TB 100 TB 1,000 TB 10,000 TB
Optical Tape Advantage $100,000,000 $10,000,000 MAGNETIC TAPE AND OPTICAL TAPE LIBRARY COSTS Two DLT-8000 jukeboxes, one with 170 tapes and 16 drives and one with 100 tapes and 7 drives are compared to the same jukeboxes with Optical Tape and drives. DLT-8000 Optical Tape $1,000,000 $89.0/GB $57.5/GB $100,000 100 Tapes 42 MB/sec 7 Drives 2 Drives DTF-L $4.5/GB 170 Tapes 96 MB/sec 16 Drives 4 Drives 150 Tapes 24 MB/sec 1 Drive 1 Drive $3.2/GB $4.3/GB Optical Tape $0.9/GB Typical street price jukeboxes with drives and tapes. Prominent hardware included. Software and maintenance excluded. One DTF-Ljukebox with150 tapes and 1 drive is compared to the same jukebox with Optical Tape and 1 drive. Source: M. Kempster, MicroContinuum, Inc. 1 TB 10 TB 100 TB 1,000 TB 10,000 TB
Optical Tape Competitive Range TAPE STORAGE PYRAMID 2000 MicroContinuum, Inc. Optical Tape Ultra High - End > 10 PB High - End 500 TB to 10 PB No real solution. DD-2, DTF-L, Super DLT, Exabyte, 9840, LTO Ultrium Mid - Range 1 TB to 500 TB DLT 7000 & 8000, AIT 2, DTF-L, 35xx, Exabyte, 9840, Super DLT, LTO Ultrium, LTO Accelis Low End < 1 TB DLT 4000, QIC, DAT, DTF-2, LTO Accelis Future generation
Of all the technologies we might consider today, the ones that demand our attention most are those that can fundamentally change the way we do business.