RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT MOBILE SERVICES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2017 2022 JULIA MARTUSEWICZ-KULINSKA Analysys Mason Limited 2017 analysysmason.com
About this report This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). It includes worldwide context and commentary on six key countries: Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Our forecasts are based on our robust set of historical data and draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool that applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling). For the complete data set for the region, please visit Analysys Mason s DataHub at: www.analysysmason.com/services/research/datahub/. WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators in MENA. Regulatory bodies in MENA. Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the region, or advise others that do so. Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the MENA mobile telecoms market. GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE Regions modelled: Middle East and North Africa Countries modelled individually Algeria Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Kuwait Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Tunisia United Arab Emirates (UAE) Detailed country commentary Iran Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates (UAE) KEY METRICS Mobile connections: Handset, mobile broadband, 1 IoT 2 Prepaid, contract 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G Smartphone, non-smartphone Mobile revenue: Service, 3 retail Prepaid, contract Handset, mobile broadband, 1 IoT 2 Handset voice, messaging, data Mobile ARPU: SIMs, handset Prepaid, contract Handset voice, data Voice traffic: Outgoing minutes, MoU 1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data. 2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only. 3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue. Analysys Mason Limited 2017 2
Contents 5. Executive summary 6. Service revenue in MENA will grow to USD73 billion in 2022, as competition increases despite a weaker economic outlook 7. Worldwide trends 8. Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022 9. Regional trends 10. Mobile data services will drive revenue growth, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate in MENA 11. Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration policies have led to a slow down in numbers of new mobile connections 12. 42% of all connections will be 3G by 2022, while LTE will account for nearly 31% of connections (excluding M2M) 13. The 4G/5G user base in the region will reach 174.4 million in 2022, with growing opportunities for data monetisation 14. Growth in data and migration to postpaid connections will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU 15. 4G connectivity and digital services will help to offset a slowdown in the growth of legacy services revenue 16. Country-level trends 17. Iran: Adoption of smartphones and 4G services, combined with MVNO entry in 2017, will underpin future growth 18. Kuwait: Revenue growth will be hampered by market saturation and ARPU erosion, despite strong take-up of data 19. Oman: Data revenue will grow strongly against the backdrop of increasingly challenging commercial conditions 20. Qatar: The market still has potential for growth, provided that the regional blockade does not stretch beyond a few months 21. Saudi Arabia: Revenue contracted in 2016, but will remain largely stable over the next 5 years, due to data usage 22. UAE: Steady growth, driven by a healthy economy and operators investment in infrastructure and digital initiatives 23. About the author and Analysys Mason 24. About the author 25. About Analysys Mason 26. Research from Analysys Mason 27. Consulting from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3
List of figures Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2012 2022 Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa and worldwide, USD billions (2016), 2012 2022 Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2012 2022 Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016 2022 Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016 2022 Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2012 2022 Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012 2022 Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2016 and 2022 Figure 9: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012 2022 Figure 10: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2012 2022 Figure 11: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Middle East and North Africa, 2012 2022 Figure 12: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2012 2022 Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type and overall mobile ARPU, Iran, 2012 2022 Figure 14: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran Figure 15: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2012 2022 Figure 16: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2012 2022 Figure 17: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait Figure 18: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2012 2022 Figure 19: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2012 2022 Figure 20: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman Figure 21: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2012 2022 Figure 22: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2012 2022 Figure 23: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia, 2012 2022 Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2012 2022 Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi Arabia Figure 27: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UAE, 2012 2022 Figure 28: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UAE, 2012 2022 Figure 29: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UAE Analysys Mason Limited 2017 4
Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration policies have led to a slow down in numbers of new mobile connections Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2012 2022 Mobile penetration will either stabilise or start to decline in most countries over the next 5 years. Mobile population penetration (excluding M2M) reached 114.0% in MENA in 2016, a slight increase from 113.5% in 2015. SIM registration campaigns in Saudi Arabia and reductions in mobile penetration in Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar and Tunisia were offset by growth in Algeria, Egypt and the UAE. We forecast that mobile penetration will grow slightly to reach 115.7% by 2022, mainly driven by initiatives to reach underserved areas (in Egypt and Iran, for example) and new market entrants in Iran, Oman and the UAE. Handsets will account for most connections (95.2% by 2022). However, non-handset mobile broadband (4.8% of total mobile connections in 2022) will continue to play an important role in Internet connectivity, particularly in Kuwait (24.7%), the UAE (11.2%), Israel (7.9%) and Iran (7.0%). Mobile will remain the technology of choice for maintaining connectivity outdoors and in compensating for, or complementing, fixed broadband services. However, growth in mobile broadband penetration will slow and eventually stabilise over the next 5 years. Smartphones will increasingly replace large-screen devices, as has already been observed in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Connected tablets and wearables will provide some growth stimulus in the non-handset mobile broadband segment. Analysys Mason Limited 2017 11
CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WORLDWIDE TRENDS REGIONAL TRENDS COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS IRAN KUWAIT OMAN QATAR SAUDI ARABIA UAE ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON Analysys Mason Limited 2017 23
About the author Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission. Analysys Mason Limited 2017 24
Analysys Mason s consulting and research are uniquely positioned Analysys Mason s consulting services and research portfolio CONSULTING We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms industry: communications and digital service providers, vendors, financial and strategic investors, private equity and infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters, and service and content providers Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces. We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges and opportunities that new technology brings. RESEARCH Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises. We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct access to analysts. Analysys Mason Limited 2017 25
Research from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited 2017 26
Consulting from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited 2017 27
PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN OCTOBER 2017 Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 Email: research@analysysmason.com www.analysysmason.com/research Registered in England No. 5177472 Analysys Mason Limited 2017. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party. Analysys Mason Limited 2017