Third platform and the CEE telecom industry challenges

Transcription

1 Third platform and the CEE telecom industry challenges Neli Vacheva Country manager IDC Bulgaria Copyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved. 1

2 IDC Overview IDC is the premier independent global market intelligence, events, and advisory firm for information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets (ICT) More than 1,000 IDC analysts, including in-house statisticians and economists, provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries IDC has been delivering IT intelligence, industry analysis, market data, and strategic guidance since its 1964 founding by Patrick McGovern Our multilingual, multicultural workforce surveys over 360,000 technology users and decision makers annually, delivering unrivaled coverage IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, events and research company 2011 IDC Apr-13 2

3 Local Presence Assures Accuracy and Insight Central and Eastern Europe Middle East/Africa Albania Belarus Bosnia & Herz. Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Montenegro Poland Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine Rest of CEE IDC CEMA Turkey UAE Saudi Arabia Kuwait Qatar Oman Bahrain Lebanon Syria Iran Jordan Israel Rest of ME 210+ employees in 19 key countries in CEE and MEA Regional headquarters located in Prague Research coverage of nearly 50 countries Egypt Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Ghana Kenya Uganda Nigeria Namibia Ivory Coast Ethiopia Tanzania Botswana South Africa Rest of Africa Research centers for key sub-regions: Core Central Europe, Russia/CIS, Adriatic, SEE Middle East and Africa 2011 IDC Apr-13

4 The Third Platform evolution Mobility Cloud Computing BIG Data Social Business 2011 IDC Apr-13 4

5 Trends influencing CEE telecom markets in CEE Telecom Markets Increasingly Internet-Centric. 2.OTT Happening Now 3.Networks in Need of Upgrades 4.Smartphone Sales Exploding and Tablets Starting to Have an Impact. 5.IT/Telecom Convergence; 2011 IDC Apr-13 5

6 CEE Telecom Markets Increasingly Internet-Centric CEE CAGR Fixed Voice 6.5% Fixed Data 5.0% Wireless Voice 1.1% Wireless Data 5.4% 2011 IDC Apr-13 6

7 Emerging Consumer Services and Mobile Devices HOME TRENDS WORTH WATCHING AWAY 1 Traditional Platforms v OTT 1 Role of Multi-Screen WiFi v 3G/LTE 2 2 Different use by device type 3 Changing consumer behavior New content producers 3 4 Content integration through cloud IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on IDC Apr-13 7

8 Emerging Consumer Services and Mobile Devices Consumer Cloud Services Connected Home NFC Mobile Payments Augmented Reality IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 2011 IDC Apr-13 8

9 Mobile Phone Sales, Bulgaria, 2012 Units 2012/2011 Growth Traditional -0.2% Smartphones 31.7% Total 10% Shares 2011 Shares % 68.1% Traditional M. Phones Smartphones 38.2% 61.8% Traditional M. Phones Smartphones 2011 IDC Apr-13

10 Trends influencing CEE telecom markets in CEE Telecom Markets Increasingly Internet-Centric. 2.OTT Happening Now 3.Networks in Need of Upgrades. 4.Smartphone Sales Exploding and Tablets Starting to Have an Impact. 5.IT/Telecom Convergence; Cloud services business models 2011 IDC Apr-13 10

11 LTE in CEMA: Introduction LTE is in CEMA 30+ commercial deployments Take-up has varied by market Scope of deployments differ Current (March 2013) Expected Near Future IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 2011 IDC Apr-13 11

12 LTE in CEMA: Early Drivers LTE business case is tough in CEMA markets, so... Why have so many CEMA operators deployed LTE already? First mover advantage Be the market technology leader Strategic long-term plans include LTE Follow parent telco s lead Demand in major cities, from enterprises dongles, tablets Emerging consensus around LTE technology IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 2011 IDC Apr-13 12

13 LTE in CEMA: Short- to Medium Term Outlook Simplification, but Characteristics CEMA Markets THE LEADERS THE FOLLOWERS Strong, broad consumer spending Operator commitment to LTE Cooperation, wholesale Competition drives LTE Limited initial deployments Smartphones to drive demand RUS POL LITH EST UAE KSA QAT HUN CZE ROM CRO WILL PLAY CATCH-UP Licensing terms to boost coverage Lack of strategic imperative for LTE Little current momentum for LTE Business case very challenging Network sharing / cooperation key BAH KUW RSA TUR Southeastern Europe Non-GCC Middle East Much of Sub-Saharan Africa Some markets may leapfrog 3G IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 2011 IDC Apr-13 13

14 For more information on idc.com: 1. European Consumer Services 2013: Top 10 Predictions (IDC #MS01U, December 2012) 2. RCS and Joyn: Keeping Operators at the Center of Communications (IDC #HW62U, December 2012) 3. European Mobile Forecast, : 2H12 Update (IDC #HW61U, November 2012) 4. The Challenge of Selling High-Speed Fixed Broadband Connections in CEE (IDC #CEMA19110, November 2012) 5. Central and Eastern Europe Consumer Mobile Broadband Forecast and 2011 Analysis (IDC #CEMA18956, October 2012) 6. M&A Activity in the CEMA Telecommunications Market (IDC #CEMA18833, August 2012) 7. Trends in the Central European Television Market (IDC #CEMA18752, July 2012) 8. CEMA WAN Manager Survey, 2011: Telcos, Collaboration, and Cloud Services (IDC #CEMA18544, May 2012) 2011 IDC Apr-13 14

15 Thank you! For Contacts: IDC Apr-13 15