Towards Evidence-based Policy in Africa: ICT Access and Usage in 17 African countries.

Transcription

1 Towards Evidence-based Policy in Africa: ICT Access and Usage in 17 African countries. Alison Gillwald Research ICT Edge Institute Presentation at EuroCPR, Seville March 31st 2009

2 Research ICT Africa Network of researchers conducting ICT policy and regulatory research in 20 African countries across the continent in the absence of data and analysis required for evidence based policy

3 Research ICT Africa

4 Towards Evidence based policy Policy research based on series of supply and demand side research undertaken by 20 country African research network which is triangulated with a telecommunications regulatory environment survey Integrate into an index of indicators that will provide decision-makers with an understanding of policy performance and identify points of intervention

5 Linkages between reform elements

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10 Termination charges 2008 Mobile to Mobile (US$) Mobile to Fixed (US$) Fixed to Mobile US$ Botswana 11c Kenya South Africa Tanzania Uganda 5.27c 2c 5.27c 12c 3.5c 12c 7.83c 7.83c 7.83c 9c 9c 9c

11 State ownership

12 Telecommunications regulatory environment

13 Comparative FDI: SA vs Nigeria

14 Fixed lines: residential vs supply side M.5>H&NO:3P0& (),)('"& $#!%,#%%%& KL08A0& )*("$& (#))"#+*,& I>H3.J30& )%(%!!%&!(*#%$*& GH080& E68F0& 7.>=?080& 75:;380&<0=.& 9016:..8& 76838& -./ & +!!(+& ')!#',"& )+$$((& (,"#!(+& )("!('& (*!#+'(& "%(($& )$%#%%%& $*,$!& )'!#""!& ))$)*"& )(*#'$%& $!,!$& )(%#%%%& **,")&!!#'$(& (('"*&!"#$%!& Q6=3A68>30R&R386=&STT&U0>0&(%%!V(%%,W& <3X6A&R386&=52P:326:=&S(%%"&=5JJRF&=3A6&A0>0W&

15 Urban share of residential fixed lines

16 Fixed line willingness to pay Line rental alone $8 p/m

17 Households in SA with a working fixed line!households with working fixed line 18.2%!Urban share of total working fixed lines 95.7%!Average monthly fixed line expenditure US$ 31.31!Average monthly price a household without fixed-line is willing to pay for the service US$ 3.05

18 Supply side - mobile pricing

19 Mobile phone users in SA disaggregated 16+ with mobile phone or active sim 62.1% 16+ with duplicated sim cards 16+ without mobile phone and active sim and willing to pay R58.40 (US$ 5)* or more 10.8% 17.9% share of prepaid users 78.6% Average monthly WTP for mobile expenditure of non-users that would be interested in getting a mobile phone - R (US$ 4.40)* * At Dec 2007 prices and exchange rates

20 Expenditure on mobile

21 Mobile phone users 16+ with mobile phone or active sim 62.1% 16+ with duplicated sim cards 16+ without mobile phone and active sim and willing to pay R58.40 (US$ 5)* or more 10.8% 17.9% share of prepaid users 78.6% Average monthly WTP for mobile expenditure of non-users that would be interested in getting a mobile phone - R (US$ 4.40)* * At Dec 2007 prices and exchange rates

22 Have you used a public phone in last three months? Average monthly public phone expenditure R (US$ 3.24)* * Exchange rates at Dec 2007

23 Mobile willingness to pay

24 Internet usage Do you know what the Internet is? Do you ever use the Internet? South Africa 50.8% 15.0% Senegal 45.0% 10.1% Zamibia Cameroon Nigeria 38.9% 38.3% 43.4% 3.3% 13.0% 12.7% Kenya 32.2% 15.0% Namibia Ghana 26.7% 26.6% 5.6% 8.8% Botswana Benin 22.0% 21.5% 5.8% 8.7% Cote d Ivoire 17.3% 6.7% Burkina Faso Tanzania Ethiopia Rwanda Uganda Mozambique 9.0% 8.7% 8.6% 6.7% 6.5% 3.8% 1.0% 4.3% 2.2% 0.7% 2.0% 2.4%

25 Computer and working internet

26 Internet access, usage and familiarity

27 Accessing the Internet Cameroon 95.0% Burkina Faso 92.0% CYBER /Internet, Café Nigeria 89.0% Rwanda 86.5% at home Benin 85.1% Cote d Ivoire 84.9% 12.7% at another persons HOME Ghana 77.1% 19.3% Senegal Tanzania 70.0% 68.9% 15.7% 41.7% at an educational institution (school, university, etc.) Kenya 65.5% 20.2% Ethiopia 60.0% 26.5% 23.7% at work Uganda 51.5% 19.6% 52.9% South Africa 45.9% 29.2% 32.4% using a mobile phone Botswana 31.5% 28.1% 37.9% Mozambique 27.9% 21.2% 29.2% 33.3% 21.7% library Namibia 24.3% 21.7% 35.3%

28 Internet access - South Africa 50% know what the internet is, but only 5% use it Where do they use it?

29 Market structure/conduct Despite horizontal/service neutral licensing regime, operators reamain vertically integrated with same patterns of dominance Anti competitive incentive in market remain requiring constant adjustment by regulator Regulators largely ineffectual due to constraints on authority and absence of competencies.

30 Regulation Resource intensive access regulation Human capability and institutional capacity constraint Independence and accountability Information asymmetries

31 Policy outcomes Inefficient and expensive/high cost of services - sub-optimal use Lack of access to full range of service - > digital divide High input cost to business/ reduce growth/ employment opportunities Not globally competitive - BPO/2010

32 Conclusions & Recommendations Fixed lines access and usage charges in major obstacle to usage Remedy: Reduce access charges even if increase access charges Mobile phone access and usage constrained by high costs Remedy: Remove any additional levies and taxes on services and handsets below a certain level Pay-phones still widely used as part of multiple access and usage strategy of individuals Introduce competition or regulate pay phone extension and prices for mobile and fixed networks to ensure access and extend to Internet provision

33 Arising policy issues Institutional arrangements and capacity? Economic growth and development? Critical mass. Mobile the future? Cost? Devices? International bandwidth costs? Funding of broadband - state backbones, protectionism/conflicts of interest? Broadband as public utility? Old assumptions about continent challenged - Nigeria and Ghana overtaking South Africa in mobile users, Egypt & Morocco on ADSL e-skills indicator for e-readiness tertiary/secondary education on the continent not primary education mobile banking, lowest regulated termination charges, end or roaming charges.

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