United States Personal Device History and Forecast, April 2019

Transcription

1 United States Personal Device History and Forecast, April 2019 Table of Content Market Overview Forecasting Approach and Process Market Tables Next Five Years Major Causal Influences and Trends The United States Economy Unit Shipments Installed Base Penetration Density Replacement Rates Replacement Cycle Length Age of Retired/Removed Units Purpose and Location Hybrid PCs, 2-in-1 Product Forecast Tables Sources of Historical Data Methodology Total Available Market About Daniel Research Group

2 List of Tables United States Total Personal Devices Unit Shipments (K) United States Consumer Personal Devices Unit Shipments (K) United States Enterprise Personal Devices Unit Shipments (K) Desktop PCs -Fixed Creation United States Consumer Desktop PCs United States Enterprise Desktop PCs United States Consumer & Enterprise Desktop PCs Mobile PCs Mobile Creation and Capture United States Consumer Convertible Mobile PCs United States Consumer Traditional Mobile PCs United States Consumer Mobile PCs United States Enterprise Convertible Mobile PCs United States Enterprise Traditional Mobile PCs United States Enterprise Mobile PCs United States Consumer & Enterprise Convertible Mobile PCs United States Consumer & Enterprise Traditional Mobile PCs United States Consumer & Enterprise Mobile PCs Total PCs United States Consumer Total PCs United States Enterprise Total PCs United States Consumer & Enterprise Total PCs Tablets Mobile Creation and Capture, Delivery United States Consumer Slate Tablets United States Consumer Detachable Tablets United States Consumer Tablets United States Enterprise Slate Tablets United States Enterprise Detachable Tablets United States Enterprise Tablets United States Consumer & Enterprise Detachable Tablets United States Consumer & Enterprise Slate Tablets United States Consumer & Enterprise Tablets Mobile PCs and Tablets United States Consumer Mobile PCs & Tablets United States Enterprise Mobile PCs & Tablets United States Consumer & Enterprise Mobile PCs & Tablets

3 Total PCs and Tablets United States Consumer PCs & Tablets United States Enterprise PCs & Tablets United States Consumer & Enterprise PCs & Tablets Hybrid PC, 2-in-1 United States Consumer 2-in-1 Mobile PC & Tablets United States Enterprise 2-in-1 Mobile PC & Tablets United States Consumer & Enterprise 2-in-1 Mobile PC & Tablets Mobile Creation & Capture United States Consumer Detachable Mobile PCs & Tablets United States Enterprise Detachable Mobile PCs & Tablets United States Consumer & Enterprise Detachable Mobile PCs & Tablets Mobile Delivery United States Consumer e-readers United States Consumer Slate Tablets & e-readers United States Consumer & Enterprise Slate Tablets & e-readers Mobile Phones Mobile Communication United States Consumer Standard Phones United States Enterprise Standard Phones United States Consumer & Enterprise Standard Phones United States Consumer Smartphones United States Enterprise Smartphones United States Consumer & Enterprise Smartphones United States Consumer Mobile Phones United States Enterprise Mobile Phones United States Consumer & Enterprise Mobile Phones Total Personal Devices United States Consumer Personal Devices United States Enterprise Personal Devices United States Consumer & Enterprise Personal Devices

4 List of Chart Economy Congressional Budget Office Economic Forecasts, January 2019 Annual Growth Rate: Private, All Industries, All Size Classes Change in Percent of Employees by Size of Business, Change in Number of Business by Size Class, Unit Shipments United States Total Personal Computing Devices, Unit Shipments (K) United States Consumer Personal Computing Devices, Unit Shipments (K) United States Enterprise Personal Computing Devices, Unit Shipments (K) United States Personal Communications Device Market: Unit Shipments (K), United States Personal Devices 2019 Unit Shipments Annual Growth Rate United States Personal Devices Unit Shipments CAGR United States Personal Computing Devices, Percent of Unit Shipments, 2019 and 2023 Installed Base United States Total Personal Computing Devices, Installed Base (K) United States Consumer Personal Computing Devices, Installed Base (K) United States Enterprise Personal Computing Devices, Installed Base (K) United States Personal Communications Device Market: Installed Base (K), United States Personal Devices 2019 Installed Base Annual Growth Rate United States Personal Devices Installed Base CAGR United States Personal Computing Devices, Percent of Installed Base, 2019 and 2023 Penetration United States Personal Computing Device Market Penetration, , April 2019 Forecast United States Total Personal Computing Devices, Market Penetration, Percent of Households & Businesses United States Consumer Personal Computing Devices, Market Penetration, Percent of Households

5 United States Enterprise Personal Computing Devices, Market Penetration Percent of Businesses United States Personal Communications Device Market: Penetration, Percent of Households & Businesses United States Personal Devices TAM Penetration 2019 and 2023 Density Device Density - PCs and Tablets per Person and Employee United States Total Personal Computing Devices, Density (Devices per Penetrated Household or Business) United States Consumer Personal Computing Devices, Density (Devices per Penetrated Household) United States Enterprise Personal Computing Devices, Density (Devices per Penetrated Business) United States Personal Communications Devices, Density (Devices per Penetrated Household or Business) United States Personal Devices TAM Density 2019 and 2023 Replacement Rates Total Personal Devices Unit Shipments CAGR by Replacement Rate CAGR United States Consumer Desktop, Percent of Installed Base Units by Year Purchased United States Consumer Desktop, Time in Use Metrics Replacement Cycle Length United States Total Personal Computing Devices, Replacement Cycle Length (Y) United States Consumer Personal Computing Devices, Replacement Cycle Length (Y) United States Enterprise Personal Computing Devices, Replacement Cycle Length (Y) United States Personal Communications Device Market: Replacement Cycle Length United States Personal Devices Replacement Cycle Length 2019 and 2023 Age of Retired Units United States Total Personal Computing Devices, Age of Retired Units (Y) United States Consumer Personal Computing Devices, Age of Retired Units (Y)

6 United States Enterprise Personal Computing Devices, Age of Retired Units (Y) United States Personal Communications Device Market: Age of Retired Units (Y) United States Personal Devices Removal Age 2019 and 2023 Purpose and Location United States Consumer Personal Device (by Location and Primary Purpose) Unit Shipments (K) United States Enterprise Personal Device (by Location and Primary Purpose) Unit Shipments (K) United States Consumer Personal Device (by Location and Primary Purpose) Installed Base (K) United States Enterprise Personal Device (by Location and Primary Purpose) Installed Base (K) United States Personal Devices 2019 Unit Shipments Annual Growth Rate - Locations and Primary Purpose United States Personal Devices Unit Shipments CAGR - Locations and Primary Purpose United States Personal Computing Devices, Percent of Unit Shipments, 2019 and Locations and Primary Purpose United States Personal Devices 2019 Installed Base Annual Growth Rate - Locations and Primary Purpose United States Personal Devices Installed Base CAGR - Locations and Primary Purpose United States Personal Computing Devices, Percent of Installed Base, 2019 and Locations and Primary Purpose United States Personal Devices TAM Penetration 2019 and Locations and Primary Purpose United States Personal Devices TAM Density 2019 and Locations and Primary Purpose United States Personal Devices Removal Age 2019 and Locations and Primary Purpose United States Personal Devices Replacement Cycle Length 2019 and Locations and Primary Purpose Hybrids United States Consumer Convertible Mobile PCs Percent of Total Mobile PCs United States Enterprise Convertible Mobile PCs Percent of Total Mobile PCs Hybrid PCs Unit Shipments % of Mobile PCs & Tablets Hybrid PCs Installed Base % of Mobile PCs & Tablets Mobile PCs Unit Shipments % of Hybrid PCs Mobile PCs Installed Base % of Hybrid PCs

7 Market Overview Unit Shipments of Personal Computing and Communication Devices; PCs, Tablets, and Mobile Phones, in the United States will be essentially flat over the next five years. Notwithstanding an expected -4.4% decline in 2019, the rest of the forecast period will produce annual growth rates ranging from 1.0% in 2020 and rising to 4.8% by 2023, resulting in a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 1.4%. We expect Replacement Rates for most products to continue slow through 2021, finally begin to accelerate starting in 2022 as compelling new replacement product are introduced, failure rates due to age reach critical levels, and both existing and emerging Use-Case requirements can no longer met by existing product. Mobile PCs will continue to be the favored form factor as Desktop PCs penetration continues to decrease approaching core floor levels in both Consumer and Enterprise Sectors, and Tablet penetration continues to slow approaching theoretical maximum levels, as Use-Cases, costs, and ergonomics favor Mobile PCs. While the Consumer Sector Unit Shipment growth will produce a CAGR of +2.4%, the decline in growth for Desktop PCs, Tablets, and Mobile Phones will not offset Mobile PC growth in the Enterprise Sector resulting in a -3.0% CAGR. Forecasting Approach and Process In order for the readers and users of this forecast report to have confidence in its presented results it is necessary to understand the forecasting approach, process, and methodologies employed. Our process has five steps. 1. Top-Down Density and Penetration Analysis of long-term trends. These analyses are presents in these charts Device Density - PCs and Tablets per Person and Employee United States Personal Computing Device Market Penetration, , April 2019 Forecast 2. Top-Down forecasts for each major product 3. Consumer and Enterprise forecasts for each product Base forecasts for Products without Form Factors 4. Form Factor forecasts for each product in each segment Base forecasts for Products with Form Factors 5. Bottoms-Up Aggregation and Roll-Ups from the Base forecasts including aggregating to the alternative Purpose and Location taxonomy.

8 Each step the forecasting process begins by analyzing historical trends in four key causal influencing factors; 1. Total Available Market (TAM) the number of Households and Business in the US economy. This is obtained from the Daniel Research Group Business Economic Demographic Forecast. 2. Penetration Levels The percent of those Households and/or Business that own and use the device. These follow logistic S-Curves for both growth and declining products. Analysis of causal factors influencing future buyer decisions determine to what degree the function parameters need to be adjusted. 3. Density the average number of devices in use in those penetrated Households and/or Businesses For the most part these follow linear or growth trends and tend to decrease as penetration increases. However, they are very much dependent on product, segment, growth phase, and user behavior context. For example, products in the declining phases of their life cycle will often exhibit increasing density as penetration decreases, as the remaining TAM units are more likely to be dependent on the product and are multiple unit users. In emerging product markets, density is dependent on the timing of subsequent/multiple purchases. In some case early adopter are more likely to be multiple unit buyers at the time of first purchase than later adopters. In other case the early adopters, while still more likely to purchase additional units, will do so at a later date. Other patterns are also possible 4. Replacement Rates the rate at which the device is replaced. This behavior can also be context dependent. For example, when a new replacement product is introduced, the users most likely to replace may be those with the oldest units, those with the most recently purchased units, or in-between. Most user populations are not homogeneous with respect to propensity to replace in terms of age. How long are current users expected to continue to use their current device until they replacement them? - is the central question that device vendors and sellers what to know, and very difficult to answer. Asking current users when they expect to replace requires them to have knowledge of future economic and market conditions that they can not reasonably know. The Daniel Research Groups EQS methodology and models utilize four different metrics to measure historical and forecasted device usage time. a. Retention Rate Distribution Mean (RRD-µ), Standard Deviation and Maximum Life. These are inputs to model that are based on our analysis of economic, market, and user behavior factors. It is not an output of the models. b. Average Installed Base Age (AIBA). The EQS models compute the age distribution of the installed base in every year allowing for the computation of this

9 metric. However, it is often is highly dependent on the relative magnitude of current unit shipments in relationship to the installed base, and is therefore not an accurate estimate of how long users will continue to use the device. While the AIBA is still computed by the EQS models, we have decided not to include it in output tables and charts in this report. c. Replacement Cycle Length (RCL). This is the length of time it will take for all of the existing units in the installed base to be replaced given the current installed base size, unit shipments, and number of units removed from the installed base in that year. The EQS algorithm allows the RRD-µ to be adjusted to produce a target RCL value. Therefore, the models may be configured to use RCL as either an input or an output variable on an ad hoc basis. d. Average Removal Age (ARA) This is the average age of the units removed/retired for any reason from the installed base. It is an estimate of the average age that would be computed if you could ask every user who stopped using the device, how long they had used it. This is a new output metric from the EQS models and is include in the tables and charts in this report. ARA is highly correlated with RCL and the combination of the two is a good estimate of the true expected in use life. Differences between the two reflect difference in the user population replacement behavior related to unit age. The value of each of these metrics is in the trend more than in then point values. An example of the installed base age distribution is presented in this chart. United States Consumer Desktop, Percent of Installed Base Units by Year Purchased A comparison of the four installed base age metrics is presented in this chart. United States Consumer Desktop, Time in Use Metrics While we do consider trends in Unit Shipments necessary to establish historical context, we view Unit Shipments to be a result, not a cause, and therefore contain little or no predictive properties. When considering trends in the key influencing factors, we always ask the following key questions; Is the process that produced the historical results the same as will produce the future result. In many cases the answer is no. Causal influencing factors operating in the past often are no longer relevant or even exist. Likewise, new causal influencing factors are emerging. Therefore, the parameters governing the expression of these trends in mathematical terms in our forecast models are adjusted to reflect the changes in the causal influencing factors. In order to facilitate this process, it is necessary to understand the long-term trends and pattern of both the input and output metrics, as well as the causal influences. Many of the following sections presenting our forecasts and analysis will include Long-Term charts that establish context.

10 Our analysis of the key influencing causal factors concluded that very little will change over the next five years relative to the recent past. Therefore, our overall forecast predicts a fairly stable market for most Personal Computing and Communication Devices producing moderate growth. While there will be some slight change to the both the magnitude and structure of the Household and Business TAMs, Penetration Rates will continue their historic trends in most product cases, as will Densities. The factor that will have the most possible variance on the range of possible forecast outcomes is the rate that users will or will not replace their PCs, Tablets, and Mobile Phones with newer offerings. Changes to assumptions about TAM, Penetration, and Density will have, for the most part, proportional changes to Unit Shipments. Changes to Replacement Rate assumptions can have significantly more weight on Unit Shipment Forecasts. Forecast assumptions about all of the primary variables are derived from quantitative and qualitative assessments about the economy, product introductions, or lack of, as well as changing Consumer and Enterprise Use Cases and user/buyer behaviors. While TAM, Penetration, and Density carry some inertia in that they are slow moving and non-volatile time-series, Replacement Rates can change relatively quicker. However, given our current understanding of all of the causal influences, we do not see much change to Replacement Rates other than those tied to changing economic conditions. Alternative Taxonomy DRG has found it useful to aggregate the base models into a taxonomy based on Location - Fixed or Mobile, and Primary Purpose Content Creation and/or Capture, Delivery, or Communication. Fixed Creation Desktop PCs Mobile Delivery Slate Tablets and e-readers Mobile Creation & Capture Mobile PCs and Detachable Tablets Communication Mobile Phones

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14 Next Five Years Over the Next Five Years: Personal Computers and Tablets 532 million new PCs and Tablets will be purchased by Households and Businesses 96.8% will be replacements for older Personal Computing Devices 6 million Households and Businesses will buy a PC or Tablet for the first time The average number of Personal Computing Devices per Business will remain essentially unchanged at 30.3 devices per Business, while the average number of Personal Computing Devices per Households will also remain essentially unchanged to 2.45 devices per Household. The time required to replace all of the installed Personal Computing Devices will remain essentially constant at 5.9 years. Over the Next Five Years: Mobile Phones Million Mobile Phones will be purchased 97.9% will be replacements for older Mobile Phones 9.2 million Households will buy a Mobile Phone for the first time bringing the Household penetration to 97.7% The average number of Smartphones per Household will decrease slightly to 2.38 per Household by 2023 The time required to replace all of the Mobile Phones will remain unchanged at 34.3 Months

15 Major Causal Influences and Trends The United States Economy The economy has an obvious and direct influence on technology user buying behavior. Economic growth encourages buying, economic stagnation or decline inhibits buying. Our models express our assessment of forecasted economic growth in the annual growth rate patterns we apply to both the Unit Shipments and the Replacement Cycle Length inputs. We construct these patterns based on our analysis of economic forecast for GDP and Employment Growth from a number of credible US governments and international sources, primarily the Congressional Budget Office. Notwithstanding any unforeseen economic shocks or adverse effects from tariff or monetary policy decisions, the economy is expected to show growth over the forecast period, although at a declining rate according to the CBO. DRG also develops its own US Business Economic Demographic Forecast that reflect not just the CBO economic forecasts, but forecasts at the Industry by Size Class level derived form other sources including the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 Our economic forecast projects not just overall growth, but changes to the Business Economic Demographic Structure of the US economy that directly effects our estimates of the Enterprise Total Available Market (TAM) measured as number of businesses. Over the forecast period, while very small business will show growth, the number of small business in the 5 to 9, and 10 to 19 size classes will decline, as will the number of employees in those size classes. The losses will be absorbed by the larger size classes. This will have significant influence on demand for products targeted by size class.

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18 Please contact Daniel Research Group to obtain our 78-page detailed US Business Economic Demographic Forecast.

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103 Sources of Historical Data Historical data was obtained from the following of available sources including press releases, published reports and presentations, and publicly available databases. Device or Metric Desktop PCs Mobile PCs Unit Shipments Environmental Protection Agency IDC Environmental Protection Agency IDC Installed Base/Penetration Computer Almanac etforecaster International Telecommunications Union Worldbank Computer Almanac etforecaster International Telecommunications Union Worldbank Tablets IDC Pew Research Center Mobile Phones Households Businesses Consumer Technology Association Telecommunications Industry Association US Census Bureau Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Labor Statistics Congressional Budget Office Department of Defense US Census Bureau US Office of Personal Management Cellular Telephone Industries Association Centers for Disease Control and Prevention GSMA International Telecommunications Union Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Telecommunications Industry Association Worldbank

104 Data obtained from a variety of sources, often using different definition and methodologies, are frequently inconsistent with each other. DRG employs the EquilibriumSolver to identify and correct these differences, and produce historic time-series of Unit Shipments, Installed Bases, Replacement Rates, Average Ages, Densities and Penetration Rates that are internally consistent with each other, and correlate highly with external quantitative data and qualitative data criteria. DRG believes the resulting historical baseline is the most accurate complete accounting of the US Personal Device Market from its inception in 1975

105 Methodology The DRG Forecasting Approach In order to understand our forecast conclusions, a review of our forecast approach is necessary. Although forecasts of Unit Shipments and Revenues are of most interest to our clients, we consider these to be output results with very little predictive properties in and of themselves. Rather, we base our forecasts on understanding the trends, and the influences on those trends, of the following primary causal variables. Total Available Market (TAM) The number of potential buyers in the consumer and/or enterprise segments Penetration The percent of buyers, households and/or businesses, that has or will purchase the product or service. Density the number of product or service units in uses per penetrated household and/or business. Replacement Rate rate at which users are replacing older units with new ones. This is primarily measured in terms of the Replacement Cycle Length. The length of time it would take to replace all of the current units in the installed base given the current rate of new unit shipments and the rate of old unit replacement. Our forecast approach proceeds in four steps 1. Penetration There are Top-Down Long-Term models that forecast future market penetration of the primary major products categories based on long-terms historical trends. 2. Top-Down The primary major products are split by segment (consumer and enterprise) and form factor, as needed. 3. Base Each individual product/segment/form factor forecasts in adjusted to reflect our analysis of the economic, demographic, technological, market and user behavior influencing factors. 4. Bottom-Up, Roll-Up The base forecasts are roll-up to higher levels and other aggregations. While some of the output metrics such as Unit Shipments, Revenues and Installed Bases are additive, other such as Density, Penetration, Replacement Cycle Length, and Installed Base Age or not can only be computed using DRG s proprietary EQS methodology. Models are neat, but markets are messy. Any market model is at best an idealized simplistic version of the a complex real world process. How useful any model can be is a function of how well it encapsulates the basic causal relationships that drive cause and effect. EQS is a demand side causal model. It does not directly include any supply side trends or influences other than how they effect the demand side causal variables or indirectly, the effects and derivatives.

106 Ultimately, the demand for products and services is a function of only four independent variables. 1. TAM Total Available (or Addressable) Market meausred as puchasing/using units 2. Penetration (Percent) the percent of the TAM that has purchased and is using the product or service 3. Density The average number of units purchased and in use by the TAM units that have purchased and are using the product or service 4. Replacement (Rate) The rate at which the penetrated TAM replace product or service units. In the EQS model the Replacement is measured by the Replacement Cycle Length (RCL) metric When EQS models a Causal Flow, these four inputs compute the primary effect outputs; Unit Shipments and Insalled Base, as well as the derivative metrics, Annual Growth Rats, CAGRs, and the Installed Base Average Age. For example, an increase in the penetration rate will result in an increase in unit shipments and/or an increase in the installed base, as well as changing the derivative metrics. When EQS models a Counter Causal Flow, the logic flows in the other direction. An increase in the Unit Shipments will require an increase in one or more of the Causal variables, as well as changing the derivative metrics. The strength of EQS as a market modeling and forecasting tool derives from two attributes; 1. The ability to run both Causal and Counter Causal logic 2. A closed system of relationships that can only produce outputs that meet real world constraints and criteria set by the user

107 Total Available Market (TAM) The TAM used in the Mobile Phone, and Consumer Desktop, Mobile, and Tablet PC models is Households. The historic data was obtained from the United States Census Bureau and projected to 2026 by DRG. The TAM used in the Enterprise Desktop, Mobile, and Tablet PC models is Primary Firms from the DRG Business Demographic Baseline and Forecast. Primary Firms represent the count of Business in the total US Economy, both Private and Public Sector that are categorized by their primary business. The DRG Business Demographic Baseline and Forecast is a database of United States Firms, Primary Firms, Establishments, and Payrolls by Private and Public Sectors, by 2-Digit NAICS industries, from 1998 to It is derived from data obtained from the US Census Bureau, The Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Department of Defense, and the Congressional Budget Office Forecast Updates DRG will update these forecasts periodically as actual year-to-date results become available. Utilizing the DRG ProjectionSolver algorithm, new current year projections based on historic trended quarterly or monthly patterns are computed. Based on these projections, adjustments may be made to the primary EQS models

108 About Daniel Research Group Daniel Research Group is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Our primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts. We support clients three ways. 1. We work independently or collaboratively with the client s own analysts to produce custom technology product/service market models and forecasts. 2. We work collaboratively with the client s own analysts to design and develop the modeling applications that they will use to develop their own market models and forecasts. 3. We train client s analysts in the theory and practice of technology market modeling and forecasting. Most of our work utilizes the inventory of proprietary methodologies and algorithms that we have developed over more than 30 years. We have built technology forecasting market models for many major technology vendors, market research firms, and industry organizations. While our core competency is forecasting, our subject experience covers the entire technology and technology-enabled product/service landscape. We also support our engagements with traditional qualitative and quantitative research, as well as tactical and strategic consulting services. Stephen J. Daniel - President With three decades in the Information Technology Industry, Mr. Daniel has developed a unique blend of Market and Technology experience coupled with a deep understanding of Market Research Methodology. His primary strength is in understanding the decision-making context within which the results of his research will be applied. This is manifested by his ability to design and execute studies that precisely meet client objectives in a timely fashion and at reasonable costs. Mr. Daniel received his BS in Finance from Northeastern University and earned an MBA in Quantitative Analysis from New York University. He is a member of the American Statistical Association, The Market Research Association of America, the American Marketing Association and the Qualitative Research Association of America. Contact Information Steve@DanielRG.com (617)