Carrier WiFi and Small Cells in LTE and Beyond: Market Opportunities and Forecasts

Transcription

1 Carrier WiFi and Small Cells in LTE and Beyond: Market Opportunities and Forecasts November 2012

2 Overview: Driven by the growing surge for mobile broadband, carriers worldwide are investing in WiFi and small cell infrastructure as an economically efficient solution to expand network capacity and coverage. Not only do WiFi and small cells deployments minimize network planning, redesign and real estate costs, they also allow carriers to avoid or minimize new frequency allocation costs. Small cells, in many cases, can utilize the same frequency spectrum that carriers have allocated for macro cell deployment, while WiFi access points utilize unlicensed spectrum. The associated savings in both CAPEX and OPEX, together with higher throughout rates make WiFi and small cell deployments make WiFi and small cells a necessity for Carriers worldwide. Mind commerce, thus expects that Carrier WiFi and small cells infrastructure market will grow at a CAGR of nearly 37% over the next five years eventually accounting for nearly USD 9 Billion in revenues by the end of Nonetheless, the market still faces a number of serious challenges including but not limited to interference management, optimization and backhaul. This report provides an in-depth assessment of the Carrier WiFi and small cells market, including business models, market drivers, challenges, value chain analysis, operator and vendor strategies, and a quantitative assessment of the industry from 2012 to The report covers the following topics: Business Case for Carrier WiFi and Small Cells: An assessment of the business case for carrier WiFi and small cells. Technology Analysis: Evaluation of the underlying technology supporting carrier WiFi and small cell solutions Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Deployments: Analysis of major Carrier WiFi and small cell solution deployments by carriers worldwide Carrier & Vendor Strategies: Aalysis of carriers and vendors positioning to capitalize on Carrier WiFi and small cell opportunities Market Analysis and Forecasts: A global and regional assessment of the market size (unit shipments and revenues) and forecasts for the carrier WiFi and small cells market from 2012 to 2016 Industry Value Chain: Analysis of the Carrier WiFi and small cells value chain with indicative revenue assessments of key market players across the value chain and predictions about the economic model evolution Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Industry Roadmap : Analysis of the roadmap for the industry from 2012 to 2017

3 Key Findings: The carrier WiFi and small cells infrastructure market will grow at CAGR of 37% over next five years, accounting for nearly USD 9 Billion in revenues by the end of The carrier WiFi market alone is expected to account for nearly USD 5 Billion in global revenues worldwide by 2017, growing at a CAGR of 33 % between 2012 and The small cells market is expected to account for nearly USD 4 Billion in global revenues worldwide by 2017, growing at a CAGR of nearly 40 % between 2012 and 2017 The continued demand for mobile broadband services will play a critical role in maintaining the Carrier WiFi and small cell market's growth, amid a growing demand of convergent, intelligent and vendor agnostic small cell platforms by Carriers. Fixed line carriers are capitalizing on their infrastructure investments to offer Small Cells as a Service (SCaaS). Mind Commerce expects Fixed line carriers to form an integral part of the industry's value chain representing as much as 20% of the revenue share. Key Questions Answered: How many LTE enabled small cells will ship in 2017? What are carrier WiFi and small cells and why are they important? What are carrier's attitudes towards WiFi and small cell solutions? How much will the carrier WiFi and small cell markets be worth in 2017? How much CAPEX can carriers save by deploying WiFi and small cell solutions? Which vendors are leading the market and what are the key strategies for vendors? What will be the regional outlook for revenue in the carrier WiFi and small cells market? How is the industry's value chain structured for WiFi and small cells infrastructure and services? What benefits do small cells and WiFi bring to network operators and the ecosystem as a whole? Target Audience: Investment Firms Application Developers Mobile Device Vendors Mobile Network Carriers Service Bureau Companies WiFi Infrastructure Vendors Wireless Infrastructure Vendors Small Cell Infrastructure Vendors Telecom Managed Service Providers

4 Companies in Report ADTRAN Airvana Alcatel-Lucent Aptilo Networks Argela Aruba Networks AT&T Mobility AudioCodes BelAir Networks Bouygues Telecom British Telecom BSNL China Mobile China Telecom China Unicom Chunghwa Telecom Cisco Claro (America Movil) Clearwire Colt Telecom Comcast Contela Cox Communications CSL Hong Kong Devicescape Eircom Ericsson Everything Everywhere Genband HTC Corporation Huawei Hutchison 3 Group ip.access ipass Juniper Networks KDDI Kineto Wireless Korea Telecom KPN LG Electronics LG Uplus Maxis MegaFon MetroPCS Motorola Mobility Motorola Solutions Movilnet Venezuela Movistar MTS Russia NEC Nokia Siemens Networks NTT DoCoMo Oi Brazil Optus (Australia) Orange (France Telecom) Orascom PLTD (Smart Communications Phillipines) Portugal Telecom PT Telkom Qualcomm Reliance Communications Research in Motion Rogers Canada Ruckus Wireless Samsung Group SFR SK telecom Softbank Sprint Swisscom Mobile Tata Teleservices Tele2 Sweden Telecom Italia Mobile Telefónica Moviles Telefónica O2 Telenor Group TeliaSonera Telstra Telus Mobility Canada Tim Brasil T-Mobile Austria T-Mobile Czech Republic T-Mobile Europe T-Mobile USA Turkcell Ubee-AirWalk Ubiquisys US.Cellular Verizon Wireless Vimpelcom Virgin Media Vodafone Essar Vodafone Group Vodafone Italy Vodafone UK Wind (Italy) Wi-tribe (Pakistan) Yota (Russia) Zain Bahrain Zain Kuwait Zain Saudi Arabia

5 Table of Contents: 1 Chapter 1: Introduction Executive Summary Topics Covered Key Findings Key Questions Answered Target Audience Companies Mentioned 15 2 Chapter 2: An Overview of Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Technology The Evolution Towards Heterogeneous Networks What is Carrier WiFi Open Access vs. Mobile Data Offload Carrier WiFi Convergence with Small Cell Solutions What are Small Cells Femtocells Picocells Microcells Metrocells Towards a Convergent Small Cell Architecture Small Cell Deployment Scenarios Home/Residential Deployments: Enterprise Deployments: Metro and Public Space Deployments: Rural Deployments: Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Standardization Initiatives The Small Cell Forum Hotspot 2.0 Task Group Next Generation Hotspot 35 3 Chapter 3: The Business Case for the Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Market Key Market Drivers The Increasing Demand for Mobile Broadband CapEX and OpEX Reduction Higher Throughput per Cell Energy Savings: Towards a Greener Network Environment Market Barriers & Challenges Coverage and Performance Uncertainty Security Considerations Interference Management Mobility Management Self Organisation Backhaul Challenges Alternative Solutions The Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Value Chain The Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Industry Roadmap : Commercialization of Femtocells : Managed WiFi Data Offloading : The HetNets Era - Large Scale Integration of Macrocells, Small Cells and Carrier WiFi Carrier WiFi and Small Cells in LTE & Beyond: Key Trends Integration of DAS Small Cells as a Service (SCaaS) and Femtocells as a Service (FaaS) Self Organizing Networks (SON) 50 4 Chapter 4: Major Carrier WiFi and Small Cell Deployments AT&T Mobility Eircom KDDI Korea Telecom SK Telecom Optus Australia SFR France Sprint Reliance Communications Softbank Japan Telefonica O2 UK T-Mobile Tim Brasil U.S Cellular Verizon Wireless Vodafone Zain Bahrain Zain Saudi Arabia 67 5 Chapter 5: Vendor Landscape Vendor Ranking Matrix Vendor Product Portfolio and Strategy ADTRAN Argela Airvana Aptilo Networks Aruba Networks Alcatel-Lucent Cisco Contela Devicescape Ericsson Huawei Ip.access Juniper Networks Kineto Wireless Motorola Solutions NEC Nokia Siemens Networks Ruckus Wireless Samsung Ubee-AirWalk Ubiquisys 91 6 Chapter 6: Market Analysis & Forecasts The Global Carrier WiFi Market: Global Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments and Revenue: Global Carrier WiFi Access Point and Controller Unit Shipments: WiFi Offload vs Standard WiFi Access Points: Regional Outlook of the Market:

6 Table of Contents (cont.): 6.2 Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments and Revenues by Region: Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Latin & Central America Middle East & Africa North America Western Europe The Global Small Cell Market: Global Small Cell Unit Shipments and Revenue: Global Small Cell Unit Shipments and Revenue by Cell Type: Global Femtocell Unit Shipments and Revenue: Global Picocell Unit Shipments and Revenue: Global Microcell Unit Shipments and Revenue: Global Small Cell Unit Shipments and Revenue by Technology: Regional Outlook of the Market: Small Cell Unit Shipments and Revenues by Region: Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Latin & Central America Middle East & Africa North America Western Europe 135 List of Tables Table 1: Carrier WiFi Vendor Ranking Matrix Table 2: Small Cells Vendor Ranking Matrix

7 List of Figures Figure 1: The HetNets Concept 21 Figure 2: Mobile Data Offloading via WiFi within a Carrier Network 23 Figure 3: Illustration of Small Cell Deployments within a Carrier Network 25 Figure 4: Small Cell Deployments in Home, Enterprise, Urban and Rural Scenarios 28 Figure 5: Small Cell Forum's Scope of Work 33 Figure 6: The Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Value Chain 44 Figure 7: The Carrier WiFi and Small Cells Industry Roadmap: Figure 8: The Self Organizing Networks (SON) Concept 50 Figure 9: KDDI's 3M Strategy Vision 59 Figure 10: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments: (Thousands of Units) 92 Figure 11: Carrier WiFi Revenues: (USD Millions) 93 Figure 12: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments by Category: (Thousands of Units) 94 Figure 13: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipment Revenues by Category: (USD Millions) 95 Figure 14: WiFi Offload vs. Standard WiFi Access Point Unit Shipments: (Thousands of Units) 96 Figure 15: Carrier WiFi Offload Access Point Unit Shipments: (Thousands of Units) 97 Figure 16: Standard Carrier WiFi Access Point Unit Shipments: (Thousands of Units) 97 Figure 17: WiFi Offload vs. Standard WiFi Access Point Unit Shipment Revenues: (USD Millions) 98 Figure 18: Carrier WiFi Offload Access Point Unit Shipment Revenues: (USD Millions) 99 Figure 19: Standard Carrier WiFi Access Point Unit Shipment Revenues: (USD Millions) 99 Figure 20: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments by Region: (Thousands of Units) 100 Figure 21: Carrier WiFi Revenues by Region: (USD Millions) 101 Figure 22: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Asia Pacific: (Thousands of Units) 102 Figure 23: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Asia Pacific: (USD Millions) 103 Figure 24: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Eastern Europe: (Thousands of Units) 104 Figure 25: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Eastern Europe: (USD Millions) 105 Figure 26: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Latin & Central America: (Thousands of Units) 106 Figure 27: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Latin & Central America: (USD Millions) 107 Figure 28: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Middle East & Africa: (Thousands of Units) 108 Figure 29: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Middle East & Africa: (USD Millions) 109 Figure 30: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in North America: (Thousands of Units) 110 Figure 31: Carrier WiFi Revenues in North America: (USD Millions) 111 Figure 32: Carrier WiFi Unit Shipments in Western Europe: (Thousands of Units) 112 Figure 33: Carrier WiFi Revenues in Western Europe: (USD Millions) 113 Figure 34: Small Cell Unit Shipments: (Thousands of Units) 114 Figure 35: Small Cell Revenues: (USD Millions) 115 Figure 36: Small Cell Unit Shipments by Cell Type: (Thousands of Units) 116 Figure 37: Small Cell Revenues by Cell Type: (USD Millions) 117 Figure 38: Femtocell Unit Shipments: (Thousands of Units) 118 Figure 39: Femtocell Revenues: (USD Millions) 118 Figure 40: Picocell Unit Shipments: (Thousands of Units) 119 Figure 41: Picocell Revenues: (USD Millions) 119 Figure 42: Microcell Unit Shipments: (Thousands of Units) 120 Figure 43: Microcell Revenues: (USD Millions) 120 Figure 44: Small Cell Unit Shipments by Technology: (Thousands of Units) 121 Figure 45: Small Cell Revenues by Technology: (USD Millions) 122 Figure 46: Small Cell Unit Shipments by Region: (Thousands of Units) 123 Figure 47: Small Cell Revenues by Region: (USD Millions) 124 Figure 48: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Asia Pacific: (Thousands of Units) 125 Figure 49: Small Cell Revenues in Asia Pacific: (USD Millions) 126 Figure 50: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Eastern Europe: (Thousands of Units) 127 Figure 51: Small Cell Revenues in Eastern Europe: (USD Millions) 128 Figure 52: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Latin & Central America: (Thousands of Units) 129 Figure 53: Small Cell Revenues in Latin & Central America: (USD Millions) 130 Figure 54: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Middle East & Africa: (Thousands of Units) 131 Figure 55: Small Cell Revenues in Middle East & Africa: (USD Millions) 132 Figure 56: Small Cell Unit Shipments in North America: (Thousands of Units) 133 Figure 57: Small Cell Revenues in North America: (USD Millions) 134 Figure 58: Small Cell Unit Shipments in Western Europe: (Thousands of Units) 135 Figure 59: Small Cell Revenues in Western Europe: (USD Millions) 136

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