Latin America telecoms market: interim forecast update LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS MARKET: INTERIM FORECAST UPDATE

Transcription

1 REGIONAL FORECAST REPORT LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS MARKET: INTERIM FORECAST UPDATE ROMAN ORVISKY

2 About this report This report provides: an interim update of our 5-year forecast (which was previously published in September 2016) 1 of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for Latin America as a whole and for six key countries an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons: market developments based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (3Q 2016) changes to the competitive and regulatory environment changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant US dollars changes to historical data because of newly available information. For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at Geographical Regions modelled: Latin America Countries modelled individually Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru REPORT COVERAGE Key performance indicators Connections Mobile Handset, mobile broadband, 1 IoT 2 Prepaid, contract 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G Smartphone, non-smartphone Fixed Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up Narrowband voice, VoBB DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other Voice traffic Fixed and mobile Outgoing minutes, MoU Revenue Mobile Service, 3 retail Prepaid, contract Handset, mobile broadband 1, IoT 2 Handset voice, messaging, data Fixed Service 3, retail Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other ARPU Mobile: SIMs, handset Prepaid, contract Handset voice, data 1 For more information, see Analysys Mason s Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts Available at: /LATAM-telecoms-forecast-Sep2016-RDDG0. 1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset data. 2 IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only. 3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue. 2

3 Contents 5. Executive summary and regional forecasts 6. Handset data and fixed broadband will be the main reasons for revenue growth, although this will be slow during the forecast period 7. Smartphones and 4G/5G: The region s smartphone user base will grow to nearly half a billion by Fixed services: The rapid growth in revenue and the number of subscriptions for cable is a consistent theme across the region 9. Key regional changes since our previous forecast 10. Forecast revision: More positive outlook on handset data and fixed broadband 11. Individual country forecasts 12. Argentina: We have revised our forecast up because inflation continues to drive up tariffs 13. Brazil: Revenue will grow overall because handset data will make up for a declining voice market 14. Chile: Strong mobile growth in 2016 drives an upward revision of our previous forecast 15. Colombia: We have lowered our forecast for telecoms service revenue based on newly available data 16. Mexico: We have revised our forecast down based on intense mobile competition and the uncertain economic climate 17. Peru: The forecast has been revised down due to mobile competition and a slowdown in fixed broadband growth 18. About the author and Analysys Mason 19. About the author 20. About Analysys Mason 21. Research from Analysys Mason 22. Consulting from Analysys Mason 3

4 List of figures Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Latin America, Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets and 4G/5G s share of total connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2015 and 2021 Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Latin America Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Latin America, 2016 and 2021 Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2015 and 2021 Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2015 and 2021 Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Argentina, Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Chile Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Colombia, Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Colombia Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Mexico, Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Mexico Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Peru, Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Peru Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Argentina Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Brazil, Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Brazil Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Chile,

5 Smartphones and 4G/5G: The region s smartphone user base will grow to nearly half a billion by 2021 Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets and 4G/5G s share of total connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2015 and 2021 Percentage of handsets 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Argentina Smartphones as a percentage of handsets: 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% G/5G share of total connections (excluding IoT): Source: Analysys Mason Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru LATAM 0% Percentage of connections Brazil and Mexico will continue to lead the region in the smartphone share of handsets. Competition, subsidies and low penetration among low-end users in Mexico are the main reasons for this, although Telcel is not allowed to offer direct subsidies. Colombia and Peru will continue to lag behind the other major LATAM markets in smartphone penetration the two countries have the lowest GDP per capita among major LATAM markets, and handset subsidies are prohibited in Colombia. In recent years, countries across the region have also been hit by currency depreciation in relation to the US Dollar, affecting their ability to purchase imported devices, although the depreciation has, in most cases, stabilised in G adoption is growing faster than expected across LATAM. The availability of cheap devices, spectrum, and operator efforts to promote data usage have combined to drive 4G growth. This has been particularly strong in Brazil, where quarterly net adds have grown in 15 out of 16 quarters since the technology was launched in 1Q 2013, reaching over 10 million net adds in 4Q 2016 alone. A similar story has emerged in Chile, where the 4G user base more than doubled between 2015 and 3Q 2016 as spectrum in the 700MHz band has finally been made available. In the face of growing MVNOs and declining voice pricing, established MNOs have been successful in leveraging their financial advantage in building up network coverage. 7

6 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND REGIONAL FORECASTS INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY FORECASTS ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON 18

7 About the author Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor s degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management. 19

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