Future Visions for Advanced Communications & Information Technology Based Applications and Infrastructure

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1 Future Visions for Advanced Communications & Information Technology Based Applications and Infrastructure Stuart Lipoff Arthur D. Little, Inc. Cambridge, Ma USA (617) May 14, 2001 start

2 Abstract Title: Future Visions for Advanced Communications & Information Technology Based Applications and Infrastructure IEEE Boston Section Life Members Chapter 4:00 PM, Monday, 14 May By: Stuart J. Lipoff, V.Pres. and Director of Communications, Arthur D. Little, Inc. Abstract: Deregulation, hypercompetiton, globalization, convergence, and advanced multimedia telecomputing technologies are powerful forces driving the rapid growth of wired and wireless broadband public telecommunications infrastructure. Only a few years ago, multimedia capable communications circuits and communications devices were restricted by cost to large businesses, and further restricted by size and weight to the desktop. However we now find millions of US homes with affordable broadband connectionless cablemodem or ADLSL services and 3rd generation wireless systems only a few years from being deployed along with compatible pocket and personal portable terminal devices. This presentation will explore some alternative infrastructure visions for public communications networks, home networks, as well as the connected consumer electronics devices that terminate these networks. Following identification and description of the infrastructure the presentation will showcase several broadband and multimedia rich applications scenarios for entertainment, transactions, information, education, and communications. Key enabling technologies will be explored such as advanced man-machine interfaces, digital rights management, and AI based agents. 2

3 Objectives & Outline The purpose of this presentation is to provide a common framework of definitions and a common factbase to facilitate discussions Historical Evolution Key trends & drivers Infrastructure alternatives Applications Examples 3

4 Historical Evolution of Public Networks The general trend has been to increase bandwidth & migrate electronics and intelligence to the edge of the network EVOLUTION ACCESS PLANT DISTRIBUTION PLANT SWITCHING SYSTEM INTELLIGENT NETWORK Wire/SDM Wire/SDM Central/Analog Circuit Switch Class Services Same Wire/DLC Central/Digital Circuit Switch Same Same FO/DLC Same 2nd Generation Same Same Distrib./Digital +Cellular Integration Wire/ISDN Same Same Same Fibre Curb Same Distrib./Digital VoIP Packet +Video+Voice+INet Fibre Home Same Same Same PCN Radio Same Same +3rd Generation PCN 4

5 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Segments The public switched network has 6 historical segments of interest. Enhanced Service Platforms SWITCHING SYSTEM DISTRIBUTION PLANT Distribution Nodes 44 ACCESS PLANT 55 CPE 66 User I.N. & Value Added Facilities Switching Distribution Media Standard Distributed & Decentralized Nodes 5

6 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Analog Network ANALOG ANALOG NETWORK NETWORK TECHNOLOGIES TECHNOLOGIES The original Analog Network is as follows: Small Business Answering Machine Residential MODEM TOLL SWITCH KTS ANALOG CARRIER LONG HAUL NETWORK Large Business - Site A DATA PBX MODEM LOCAL SWITCH ANALOG CARRIER LOCAL NETWORK KTS Local Exchange Large Business - Site B PBX Customer Premises Telco 6

7 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Analog Network The distribution and access plant is a wire pair of 1 voice circuit per pair. User Access - Same as distribution: wire pair I.N. & Value Added Facilities Limited call fwd &3 party calls Switching Analog on subscriber side TDM PCM on trunk side Distribution Baseband analog SDM metallic pairs 1V.C./pair Passive splice boxes 7

8 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Serving Area Concept The S.A. concept provides a transistion from distribution to access plant 8

9 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Serving Area Concept The S.A. concept divides the access regions into about 0.5 miles radius areas SERVING AREA CONCEPT Legend: Single Serving Area Two Serving Areas (High Density) Distribution Cables Lateral Cable 9

10 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Digital Loop Carrier/Subscriber Line Carrier With DLC the electronics starts to move closer to the end user User Access Baseband analog SDM metallic pairs 1V.C./pair I.N. & Value Added Facilities Limited call fwd &3 party calls Switching TDM PCM subscriber side TDM PCM on trunk side Distribution TDM PCM digital Metallic pair or fiber optics cable Multiple V.C../circuit SLC Demux unit in neighborhood 10

11 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Digital Loop Carrier/Subscriber Line Carrier DLC also facilitates moving high bandwidth fiber closer to the end user PRE-ISN PRE-ISN DIGITAL DIGITAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORK NETWORK Small Business Residential DSU DIGITAL KTS MODEM DIGITAL LOOP CARRIER (DLC) TOLL SWITCH FIBER MUX Toll Network Large Business - Site A MAINFRAME LAN DLC FIBER MUX DATA UNIT DIGITAL PBX Large Business - Site B M U X LOCAL DIGITAL SWITCH DIGITAL CROSS- CONNECT DIGITAL CARRIER Local Network MUX Local Exchange PBX Customer Premises Telco 11

12 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Digital Loop Carrier/Subscriber Line Carrier With the SLC electronics in the field powering and environmental protection is required 12

13 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Integrated Services Networks and VoIP The original ISN concept was based on ISDN but now is trending to VoIP with a need to control QoS ISN ISN DIGITAL DIGITAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORK NETWORK Small Business ISN KITS MODEM gateway Residential INTEGRATED DLC TOLL SWITCH FIBER MUX Toll Network Large Business - Site A VoIP Video High Speed Data ISN PBX M U X ISN SWITCH C.O. TERMINAL Local Network TA B-ISN SWITCH Large Business - Site B MUX Local Exchange ISN PBX Customer Premises Telco 13

14 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Mobile and Fixed Wireless These networks are now competitive with wired networks with the benefits of mobility Radio air interface TDMA or CDMA digital User RF Microcell Cell to Cell Handoffs I.N. & Value Added Facilities Basic wired CLASS services Personal numbering plan Switching TDM PCM subscriber side TDM PCM on trunk side for voice SS7 CCIS for signalling & IN Decentralized in network Distribution TDM PCM digital Metallic pair or fiber optics cable Multiple V.C./circuit SLC Demux & distributed switching 14

15 Historical Evolution of Public Networks Intelligent Network In parallel with access and distribution trends was the development of IN and AIN for delivery of enhanced services SMS SMS Service Management System SCP SSP Service Control Point Service Switching Point Com. Inf. Database IP Intelligent Peripheral VFN Vendor Feature Node Com. Inf. Communication Interface X.25 Pgm. Inf. Program interface SCP Com. Inf. Pgm. inf. Com. inf. Database CCS7 CCS7 Net (STP) CCS7 CCS7 CCS7 IP SSP ISDN VFN User User User User 15

16 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change Drivers Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike 1 Deregulation 5 Global Competitive Advantage

17 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change Drivers Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike 1 Unserved Market Needs Deregulation 5 Global Competitive Advantage

18 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change Drivers Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike 1 Unserved Market Needs Deregulation Global Competitive Advantage 2 5 Competition

19 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change Drivers Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike 1 Unserved Market Needs Deregulation Global Competitive Advantage 2 5 Competition 4 3 Emerging Technologies 19

20 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change 5 Key Themes Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike Digital Digital Broadband Global Global Connectivity 1 5 Global Competitive Advantage

21 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change 5 Key Themes Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike Digital Digital Broadband Global Global Connectivity 1 Electronic and and Internet Commerce 5 Global Competitive Advantage

22 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change 5 Key Themes Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike Digital Digital Broadband Global Global Connectivity 1 Electronic and and Internet Commerce 5 Global Competitive Advantage Digital Digital Image Image Processing and and Compression 22

23 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change 5 Key Themes Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike Digital Digital Broadband Global Global Connectivity 1 Electronic and and Internet Commerce 5 Global Competitive Advantage 2 Personal and and Portable Supercomputing 4 3 Digital Digital Image Image Processing and and Compression 23

24 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change 5 Key Themes Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike Digital Digital Broadband Global Global Connectivity 1 Electronic and and Internet Commerce Ubiquitous 5 Global Competitive Advantage Digital Digital Image Image Processing and and Compression Personal and and Portable Supercomputing 24

25 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change The Whole Picture Emerging technologies are providing the basis for 5 key themes which in turn are changing the fundamental basis of competition for both service providers, equipment suppliers, and strategic end users alike Deregulation Digital Digital Broadband Global Global Connectivity Ubiquitous 5 1 Global Competitive Advantage 2 Unserved Market Needs Electronic and and Internet Commerce Competition Personal and and Portable Supercomputing 4 3 Digital Digital Image Image Processing and and Compression Emerging Technologies 25

26 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change LEC Example- New Business Models To succeed in the new era of deregulation, new market needs, and new technologies a telephone local exchange carrier will need to reinvent themselves in three dimensions- all at once! One One Wired+ 2 Wireless Competition Several Wired+ Many Wireless 26

27 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change LEC Example- New Business Models To succeed in the new era of deregulation, new market needs, and new technologies a telephone local exchange carrier will need to reinvent themselves in three dimensions- all at once! LONG TERM Services Provided MID TERM Full Multimedia Entertainment/Transaction Leisure/Business Services Video Entertainment Transmission+Content Video Entertainment Transmission >BW Voice+Data Transmission Voice Transmission One One Wired+ 2 Wireless Competition Several Wired+ Many Wireless 27

28 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change LEC Example- New Business Models To succeed in the new era of deregulation, new market needs, and new technologies a telephone local exchange carrier will need to reinvent themselves in three dimensions- all at once! Content Package Process Switch Transmission CPE Support to Primary Activities (e.g: Billing/Written Documentation/Installation/Training/Service) Full Range of Info Chain LONG TERM Services Provided Value Added MID TERM Full Multimedia Entertainment/Transaction Leisure/Business Services Video Entertainment Transmission+Content Video Entertainment Transmission >BW Voice+Data Transmission Switching & Xmission One Voice Transmission One Wired+ 2 Wireless Competition Several Wired+ Many Wireless 28

Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change Consequences of Trends Telecom industry has moved beyond evolution - disruptive and explosive changes created new and exciting business opportunities.

29 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change Consequences of Trends Telecom industry has moved beyond evolution - disruptive and explosive changes created new and exciting business opportunities. Drivers De & Re-regulation Globalization New Market Needs New Technologies Consequences New competition New pricing models Rapid service creation Horizontal & vertical integration Bundling Multistandards Design for Flexibility Cost challenges Distributed manufacturing Distributed sourcing Multimedia Experiences Mobility Management Unified Messaging Convergent Customer Service One Stop Shop Choice Wireless High Speed Data Advanced MMIs Distributed Intelligent Computing Image Processing Internet Fiber in the Loop 29

30 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change LEC Example- New Technologies Conventional Networks will be Enhanced with Next Gen Infrastructure Switch Copper Distribution Plant Premise and/or User Equipment 30

31 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change LEC Example- New Technologies To rise to the challenge, new multimedia broadband architectures will need to be deployed Servers can be provided by public carriers or by third parties Satellite Satellite Data Server Decoder Network Multimedia Server Switch LMDS Copper Interface Unit Video Server Encoder Intelligent Network Function s Voice Server Optical Networks Regional/Local Headend, Central Office, Cell site, or Remote site Fiber Coax PCS Distribution Plant Operational Support Systems & Services (e.g. Network Management, Billing, Customer Validation, Clearing-house services) Modem Premise and/or User Equipment 31

32 Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change Convergence Carriers now realize that there is an important 4 th C 32

33 Numbers Text Key Technology Foundations & Drivers of Change Convergence Broadband technology and other trends are driving toward convergence and a general filling in of the entire space Private Public Global Networks Public Public National Networked Systems Public Intercity Networked Systems Public Metro Networked Systems Enterprise Networked Distributed Systems Locally Networked Distributed Systems Multiple Isolated Systems Single Location Systems Voice Line Art Still Image FIXED or MOBILE Motion Video Capture Store Process Switch Transmit Output

34 Applications Visions Common to many visions are ubiquity, broadband, multimedia, and embedded intelligence 34

35 Applications Visions Common to many visions are ubiquity, broadband, multimedia, and embedded intelligence with all kinds of devices 35

36 Multimedia 3rd Generation Wireless Virtual Reality Electronic Commerce Network Based Virtual Reality Gaming Agent Assisted Telecommuting/Homework

Conclusions The View Forward While the visions of the future are not new, only recently have we begun to supply the missing links to connnect the unserved needs to the technologies Applications that

37 Conclusions The View Forward While the visions of the future are not new, only recently have we begun to supply the missing links to connnect the unserved needs to the technologies Applications that Address Market Needs Un-served and Under-served Marketplace Needs & Opportunties Infrastructure that Supports the Services Communications, Transactions, and Content Services Key Components within the Products Products and Systems in the Infrastructure Underlying Technologies 37

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