My Aim: share some thoughts about the Internet and its future. think about some of the major factors that will shape our future
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1 Internet Futures
2 My Aim: + share some thoughts about the Internet and its future think about some of the major factors that will shape our future
3 Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history
4 Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history of making very poor technology guesses
5 Why? The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history of making very poor technology guesses and regularly being taken by surprise!
6 Can the Internet do a better job of matching technology to user needs?
7 One approach: 1. Observe the situation and what s happening
8 One approach: 1. Observe the situation and what s happening 3. Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way
9 One approach: 1. Observe the situation and what s happening 2. Believe what we see 3. Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way
10 What s Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services
11 What s Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to?
12 What s Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to?
13 What s Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services From radio to tv to? passiv passive active
14 What s Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to? From radio to tv to? active passiv passive
15 Service Profile Choices open vs walled garden
16 Service Profile Choices open vs walled garden
17 Service Profile Choices open vs walled garden open delivery infrastructure vs Service / content distribution networks
18 Service Profile Choices open vs walled garden open delivery infrastructure vs Service / content distribution networks
19 Service Profile Choices open vs walled garden open delivery infrastructure vs Service / content distribution networks user produced vs externally produced
20 Service Profile Choices open vs walled garden open delivery infrastructure vs Service / content distribution networks user produced vs externally produced
21 What s Happening Today: User Preferences and the Market for Services From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to? From radio to tv to? active passiv passive
22 What s Happening Today: Demand for Bandwidth
23 What s Happening Today: Demand for Bandwidth
24 What s Happening Today: Demand for Bandwidth
25 What s Happening Today: Declining Revenue Profile for incumbent telcos
26 What s Happening Today: Declining Revenue Profile for incumbent telcos
27 driver dimensions ++
28 technology ++ surplus rapid infill enabling windows Moore s Law technology pace
29 technology ++ surplus rapid infill enabling windows? see it seize it! Moore s Law technology pace
30 technology ++ technology push and network architecture shift of power
31 technology ++ new production paradigms Over the top applications
32 technology Over the top applications ++ new production paradigms
33 technology ++ surplus enables divergence for simplicity performance and
34 technology ++ surplus enables divergence for simplicity performance and QoS IMS Network VPNs
35 technology ++ surplus enables divergence for simplicity performance and QoS IMS Network VPNs
36 technology ++ surplus enables divergence for simplicity performance and QoS IMS Network VPNs Web 2.0 enabled user generated content
37 technology ++ tensions at the lower levels of the technology stack Users simply want applications to work Network operators often base their business model on driving complexity into the network So who really wants a simple end-to-end IP network? And who is willing to pay For it?
38 usage fuelling the usage growth fire usage = scaling
39 usage fuelling the usage growth fire usage = scaling
40 Business modelling
41 Business modelling
42 Business modelling
43 Business modelling..today operators tend to be very hype driven..
44 Business modelling convergence seamless networking NGN -... triple play..today operators tend to be very hype driven..
45 Business modelling convergence seamless networking NGN -... triple play..today operators tend to be very hype driven..
46 Business modelling convergence seamless networking NGN -... triple play..today operators tend to be very hype driven..
47 Business modelling convergence seamless networking NGN -... triple play..today operators tend to be very hype driven..
48 Business modelling What are we learning? Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
49 Business modelling What are we learning? Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing
50 Business modelling What are we learning? Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Investors are still nervous about telcos
51 Business modelling Informed decision making about network infrastructure investment is the key to the next few years!
52 So where are we heading?
53 So where are we heading ++? new roles being defined with different relationships.. involving users and other stake-holders
54 So where are we heading? commodity utility network operation high capacity packet pushing network
55 So where are we heading? commodity utility network operation high capacity packet pushing network user - drive, production p2p,content,.. User-centric applications, not network-centric services Value shift up the protocol stack
56 So where are we heading? commodity utility network operation high capacity packet pushing network user - drive, production p2p,content,.. User-centric applications, not network-centric services Value shift up the protocol stack Reinvention: new involving users partners and different business models
57 a closing thought
58 Thank You!
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