Management Update: Wireless LAN Predictions for 2004

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1 IGG K. Dulaney, R. Ahlawat Article 19 November 2003 Management Update: Wireless LAN Predictions for 2004 Wireless LAN (WLAN) technology and use continue to evolve at a rapid pace. WLANs will achieve greater integration with the wired infrastructure in 2004, leading to greater VoIP (voice over Internet Protocol) integration in Wireless LAN (WLAN) technology and use continue to evolve at a rapid pace. WLANs will achieve greater integration with the wired infrastructure in 2004, leading to greater VoIP (voice over Internet Protocol) integration in Strong Growth for WLANs WLANs will continue on an unabated growth path in The rapid adoption is fueled by the following: Declining WLAN equipment prices Intel s strong marketing of its Centrino platform Burgeoning WLAN use in homes Improvements in WLAN security Further integration with wired LAN networking platforms As Gartner discusses in other Predicts 2004 research, most notebooks will come with bundled WLAN capability, enabling most notebook users to participate in WLAN networks with little effort. Almost every major enterprise is aware of the technology and has at least some limited deployments. Enterprises should recognize that wireless has become a core part of every enterprise network and can no longer be regarded as an elective technology. Consequently, enterprises must own their airspace because it becomes a resource to deliver computing capabilities. Reasons to Deploy WLANs Gartner Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 During 2004, additional applications such as voice will begin to emerge as primary reasons to deploy WLANs, although progress in this area will be plagued by a lack of standards and a shortage of handset choices. However, most use will consist of light-duty access to networks often pegged at 15-Mbps peak requirements or less. Switches will be enhanced to include WLANs, finally integrating WLANs into the core fabric of enterprise networks. Security deficiencies will cease to become a serious inhibitor to deployment. Prediction: The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) i security standard will be approved in i, the long-awaited security standards enhancement to the WLAN specification, should be ratified in i consists of one authentication component, 802.1x the same standard used in the wired world and two encryption technologies, Temporal Key Integrity Protocol (TKIP) and Advanced Encryption Standard. Early in 2003, the Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) Alliance began certification for Wi-Fi Protected Access, a subset of some of the early revisions of i TKIP combined with 802.1x. Strategic Planning Assumption: The IEEE i WLAN security standard will be approved by 2H04 (0.7 probability). A robust encryption standard that has been thoroughly thought through by a strong industry consortium Continued support for previous standards including Wi-Fi Protected Access, a preliminary standard recommended by Gartner Pre-standard deployments, which are claimed as standard and should be regarded as such Enterprises should no longer view WLAN security shortcomings as a barrier to deployment of WLANs. One of two approaches can be taken: Adoption of Wi-Fi Protected Access or one of the capabilities of I A virtual private network (VPN) approach that consists of open access points with an overlay security system connecting devices to the backbone wired network (standard and nonstandard approaches are available and acceptable) The question of whether to wait for full i support depends on the security policies of the enterprises.

3 Although Wi-Fi Protected Access is secure and recommended, some enterprises may want higher levels of encryption to meet special threats, or to simply be on the formal standard. For enterprises seeking the latter, all purchases should be capable of upgrade, which is most easily done by employing a switch architecture where the implementation of i is in firmware or software. Prediction Enterprises will begin to adopt a/g as a de facto standard. Most WLAN deployments today use b technology. For most uses during the next several years, b, acting as a complement or a wired replacement for generic application use, is more than sufficient. It is also less expensive and more stable than emerging alternatives. In 2004, however, continued progress in silicon improvements will deliver a/g capability at a relatively little cost delta from b (note that g provides backward compatibility to b). As surrounding standards mature and are combined with a/g, this technology will become more acceptable. Also, given the need to detect rogue access points, enterprises must purchase technology that can monitor frequencies and technical standards, even when they are not in use. Gartner cautions buyers to carefully examine the specifications of any purchased technology to ensure that all required and future frequencies are covered, and that the included standards match the governmental requirements of their respective countries. That said, a/g will become the mainstream choice for enterprises over b, g or a/b offerings by year-end Strategic Planning Assumption: By year-end 2004, 80 percent of new enterprise WLAN installations will include a/g technology (0.7 probability). A significant increase in WLAN performance A broader range of notebook a/g offerings, with adapter prices no more than $20 greater than b offerings A strong marketing push to select a/g technology over b in business applications a technology represents the future of WLANs.

4 802.11a operates at a faster data rate and at 5 GHz frequencies, where less interference exists from widely available consumer items that can degrade network performance (for example, cordless phones). Significantly more channels are offering more flexibility in deployment, especially in future VoIP applications. Enterprises should not remove b installations, but rather complement them with a/g b installations will continue to fulfill many users needs. As a enters the networking fabric, it is important for management to consider policies that reserve some, if not all channels for specific enterprise use. That is particularly important for operations in which the central IS organization cannot control all deployments. For example, a university might want to reserve eight of a possible 24 channels (the number available in Europe and eventually in North America) for specific enterprise applications, while permitting more-open use of the other channels. Note that the 5.7 GHz to 5.8 GHz band, called UNI-III, is an industrial, scientific and medical band that permits consumers to operate, and thus is a likely candidate for this latter purpose. Enterprises must also allocate slightly larger funding for WLAN deployment in the face of a/g. That additional spending will still adhere to the rationale that it is far less expensive to deploy WLAN technologies at the outset of a purchase rather than retrofit at a later date. Prediction Third-generation WLAN architectures will become mainstream. As 2004 progresses, a movement will occur from second-generation, stand-alone access point deployments to third-generation switched architectures, in which WLAN functionality is moved back from the access point to the edge or core network components to improve manageability and reduce costs over a given coverage area. Several choices are available in a switched environment that will require close scrutiny of application needs. Alternatives will range from: Integrated, advanced edge switches that include WLAN WLAN complementary boxes to edge switches Core switches that tunnel to the application provider to provide central management and control functions

5 Overlay systems based on server architectures that operate a higher-level management, functionality and security framework on top of an existing networking landscape Aside from the more-popular network enhancements, VPN boxes are also being upgraded to provide roaming capability, targeting the most security-conscious buyers. In the long term, WLAN capability will appear in many network components as it becomes as mainstream as wired Ethernet. Strategic Planning Assumption: By year-end 2004, the WLAN access point market will crystallize into two segments (0.7 probability): Traditional switches enhanced to include WLAN support New VPN products that overlay security and features on top of mixed LAN/WLAN infrastructure Full integration of LAN and WLAN offerings from incumbent networking vendors A serious dropout of WLAN startup switch vendors, with at least 60 percent not expected to survive more than a few years IT network management to gain solid control over WLAN deployments, an effort that was formerly fragmented, with departments such as warehousing and distribution able to set their own direction A battle between thin and thick access point architectures WLAN deployments are now part of any LAN offering. Enterprises must consult with established LAN vendors to understand their approaches to WLAN deployment in the coming years. That will put more pressure on startup vendors that have not wired their installed base. Many startup vendors believed they could establish themselves in a relatively short time, and that technology development would be sufficiently difficult for the incumbent wired vendors to position the startups as acquisition targets. However, Gartner has been surprised at how quickly the incumbents have added WLAN capability, making the likelihood of the startups acquisition scenario appear remote. Although some startups merit consideration, you should properly evaluate each vendor s financials.

6 Prediction Applications such as voice will begin to emerge as a primary reason to deploy WLANs. Although VoIP adoption over WLAN will be hindered by a lack of standardization and high prices for handsets, Gartner expects certain verticals to begin considering voice over wireless infrastructure as they discover the cost benefits of voice applications in the wireless medium for new installations. The workplace has become increasingly mobile with the introduction of wireless connectivity to laptops. Now, end users can be truly mobile with features such as software IP phones on their laptops, which will enable them to carry their desk phone with them. Strategic Planning Assumption: By year-end 2005, 20 percent of new wireless installations will be driven by VoIP adoption (0.7 probability). Vendors to integrate features needed to support voice traffic without letting the performance of data network suffer Handset costs to come down More wireless vendors to partner with voice handset vendors to offer handsets as part of or integrated in WLAN devices As data and voice start to merge in a wired networking infrastructure, vendors will look at integrating voice and data traffic on WLANs as well. Enterprises must carefully look at the return on investment of running voice applications over a wireless network and take wired infrastructure upgrades into consideration before making a decision. It will be important for enterprises to understand vendors technology implementations of features such as quality of service for handling latency issues and call-drop, because they can significantly affect a user s experience in voice communication but may not be as noticeable in data communication. Performance issues regarding data communications, along with VoIP sessions, will be resolved as a (with an average 33-Mbps link rate) starts being deployed. Vendors will work toward prioritizing VoIP over data traffic, ensuring roaming between subnets and the resolution of latency issues. The IEEE standards body is working on a specification dubbed e that would add the needed voice and quality-of-service protocols. However, e is in early draft stages and may be too late to avoid fragmentation into proprietary implementations.

7 voice products tying cordless phones to WLAN networks are now available, but they use proprietary voice schemes. Marketing spin will be heavy as vendors try to sell varied architectural approaches. Enterprise must assess their future WLAN application environments. Enterprises unable to do this should expect that usage will not be extreme. Thus, they should move more capability back to the core, gaining the economies of scale on the management front and reducing cost over a given area. As requirements increase, hardware capabilities and wired network speeds will improve to provide sufficient support at the edge. Enterprises must also consider the degree of roaming required. Most products have been designed to serve notebook computers rather than handhelds. Notebooks move, but discretely rather than continuously. Technology that is not built for roaming will cause problems such as VPN failures. Bottom Line WLANs must be considered a mainstream part of any networking infrastructure. Prices have declined and standards have improved, making WLANs extremely viable. In many instances, WLANs can reduce costs and increase organizational flexibility. WLAN implementation at remote offices is the easiest case to justify; WLAN installation at headquarters is the most difficult due to the greater prevalence of wired connections. However, during the next five years, user demands will drive most enterprises to establish WLAN capability nearly everywhere in the enterprise. Written by Edward Younker, Research Products Analytical sources: Ken Dulaney and Rachna Ahlawat, Gartner Research For related Inside Gartner articles, see: Management Update: Client Issues for Mobile Applications, (IGG ) Management Update: How to Understand the Benefits of Mobility, (IGG )

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