Gartner Client Operating Systems Surveys and Polls: Enterprises Plan Early, but Slow, Move to Windows 7

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1 Page 1 of 8 Gartner Client Operating Systems Surveys and Polls: Enterprises Plan Early, but Slow, Move to Windows 7 7 June 2010 Michael A. Silver Gartner RAS Core Research Note G Respondents to recent Gartner surveys are considering hosted virtual desktops and 64-bit Windows 7. Furthermore, organizations plan early, but relatively slow, migrations to Windows 7. We believe some will have to delay their early starts. Overview Evidence Windows 7 promises to be a popular migration project, but many organizations plan to spend three to four years on the endeavor to leverage PC refresh and keep costs down. Client computing managers should use this research to understand how other organizations are planning their projects. Key Findings This research is based, in part, on Gartner's annual survey of IT decision makers' use of client OSs and Office productivity products. Results were culled from electronic polling at the Data Center Conference and webcasts, and from surveys conducted at the North American Symposium/IT Expo in Orlando, Florida. Most organizations plan to move to Windows 7 largely by PC attrition. Although many organizations plan to start production deployments of Windows 7 early, we believe some will move these deployments to a later date. Confusion reigns as organizations debate whether to deploy 32-bit or 64-bit Windows 7. About one-fourth of respondents to our operating systems (OSs) surveys officially support Macs beyond specific jobs and niches, at least in a limited way. Recommendations Eliminate Windows XP before Microsoft support ends in April 2014, or before independent software vendors (ISVs) of critical applications release products that are not supported on the older OS. Plan sufficient time to test applications, and get vendor support as needed. Base your decision on whether to deploy 32-bit or 64-bit Windows on your timeline and ability to do the extra work needed to support 64-bit. Understand user requirements for Windows and other platforms, such as Macs, and provide support necessary for users to optimally do their jobs. Table of Contents Analysis 1.0 Data Collection and Respondents' Profiles 2.0 Windows Migration Timing 3.0 Deployment Decisions Bit Versus 64-Bit OS 5.0 Hosted Virtual Desktops 6.0 Macs List of Figures Figure 1. North American Survey: Number of Respondents (by Number of Users in the Organization) Figure Symposium Survey: Windows 7 Starting Quarter for Planned Production Deployment Figure Data Center Conference, Las Vegas: When do you plan to begin your production deployment of Windows 7? Figure Gartner Webcast Series: When do you plan to begin your production deployment of Windows 7? Figure Data Center Conference, Las Vegas: What did you do with Windows Vista? Figure Gartner Webcast Series: What did you do with Windows Vista?

2 Page 2 of 8 Figure Symposium Survey: How will you move to Windows 7 forklift, attrition or a mix? Figure Symposium Survey: Desktop Installed Base and Forecast, October 2009 and YE10 Figure Symposium Survey: Notebook Installed Base and Forecast, October 2009 and YE10 Figure Symposium Survey: By when will you eliminate Windows XP from your environment by year? Figure Symposium Survey: By when will you eliminate Windows XP from your environment by year, cumulative? Figure Gartner Webcast Series: Will you deploy 32-bit or 64-bit Windows 7? Figure Symposium Survey: Are you considering hosted virtual desktops? Figure to 2010 Gartner Webcast Series: Are you considering hosted virtual desktops? Figure Symposium Survey: Describe the Use of Apple Macs in Your Environment (Check All That Apply) Analysis Gartner survey results show that organizations plan a relatively early, but slow, migration to Windows 7; 80% of respondents reportedly skipped Windows Vista. Gartner conducted its annual survey of IT decision makers' use of client OSs and Office productivity products at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Orlando, Florida, in October Unlike previous years, we did not conduct this survey at Gartner's EMEA Symposium/ITxpo in Cannes, France, in We collected other data featured in this research at the Gartner Data Center Conference, in Las Vegas, in December 2009, as well as from six Gartner webcasts held on 13 October 2009, 28 October 2009, 20 January 2010, and 24 February Data Collection and Respondents' Profiles Participating in the polls were attendees at client-computing-related sessions at Gartner conferences and webcasts (132 respondents, representing about 2 million PCs in U.S. Symposium, 70 respondents at the Data Center Conference and about 800 respondents at a series of webcasts). Because of the self-selected nature of the survey, we can't ensure that results reflect plans of all business users. Nonetheless, they represent the broader Gartner client base (see Figure 1). Results year to year are generally consistent with our expectations, and this has been the case throughout the eight years that we've conducted these surveys. Year-to-year results reveal trends, namely that companies usually move more slowly than they predict. Figure 1. North American Survey: Number of Respondents (by Number of Users in the Organization) 2.0 Windows Migration Timing The 2009 U.S. Symposium survey was the first in which we queried organizations about their plans for Windows 7 deployment. Historically, the results of the question on future OS deployment have been problematic. In 2006, respondents reported that they were aggressive in their plans to start migration to Windows Vista, but subsequent surveys showed the start dates delayed. Many respondents ended up skipping

3 Page 3 of 8 Windows Vista, although organizations never voiced their intent to skip that release. With the 2009 survey, we were very specific in our wording on Windows 7 deployment timing: "Once your testing, planning and piloting are done, when will (or when did) you start deploying Windows 7 broadly in production?" The answers are aggressive (see Figure 2). The most popular response was 2Q10, and more than 35% of respondents noted that they planned to start in 2Q10 or sooner. This is significantly earlier than we expect mainstream production deployments to begin, which would be 4Q10 or 1Q11. We believe that many organizations that expect to begin production deployments as early as 2Q10 will find that vendor support or compatibility problems will delay their deployments. Figure Symposium Survey: Windows 7 Starting Quarter for Planned Production Deployment In subsequent polls, respondents were somewhat less aggressive in forecasting Windows 7 deployments. At the Gartner Data Center Conference, the plurality of respondents (39%) said they planned to begin their Windows 7 production deployments in 2H10 (see Figure 3). In our webcast series, respondents were similarly moderate (see Figure 4), and though the results are not statistically conclusive, it appears that respondents at later webcasts said they plan to deploy Windows 7 later than respondents in earlier surveys and polls. The real issue is whether respondents in later webcasts have later plans because Windows 7 migration is less important to them, or because it has come to light that Windows 7 migration projects may require more preparation than people had originally thought. Figure Data Center Conference, Las Vegas: When do you plan to begin your production deployment of Windows 7? Figure Gartner Webcast Series: When do you plan to begin your production deployment of Windows 7?

4 Page 4 of 8 At the Data Center Conference and at the webcasts, we asked participants about their final actions regarding Windows Vista. More than 80% claimed to have skipped deploying Windows Vista entirely, and more than half of all organizations had never tested their applications on Windows Vista (see Figure 5 and Figure 6). Because there was no significant difference in responses at individual webcasts, we have simplified the results and are presenting only average responses. Figure Data Center Conference, Las Vegas: What did you do with Windows Vista? Figure Gartner Webcast Series: What did you do with Windows Vista? Because Windows 7 is based largely on the underpinnings of Windows Vista, Gartner expects that organizations that moved to Windows Vista will have fewer compatibility issues and a smoother migration to Windows 7, but

5 Page 5 of 8 this represents a small group as so many organizations skipped Windows Vista. Organizations that did not even test applications for Windows Vista will likely have to upgrade or replace more applications to be compatible with Windows Deployment Decisions Aside from when organizations plan to start their production migrations, there are other questions to answer. For example, how fast do they plan to move, once they begin deploying Windows 7? Historically, organizations have preferred to move all users at once to a new OS to maintain a more homogeneous infrastructure. Recently, they've said they would like to migrate to a new OS as they purchase and deploy new PCs. This type of migration by attrition generally takes three to five years. However, with 80% of organizations skipping Windows Vista, mainstream migrations to Windows 7 not starting until 2011, and Windows XP support slated to end in April 2014, organizations with PC refresh programs that are longer than three years will not have the luxury of moving from Windows XP to Windows 7 solely by attrition. We believe these are the reasons 49% of organizations say they will use a mix of attrition and in-place upgrades to move to Windows 7, and 33% say they plan to move to Windows 7 solely by attrition. Only 11% of respondents report planning to move during a relatively quick "forklift" migration project (see Figure 7). Figure Symposium Survey: How will you move to Windows 7 forklift, attrition or a mix? In terms of their overall installed base, organizations report that 12.4% of their desktop PCs and 22.9% of their notebooks will be running Windows 7 by YE10 (see Figure 8 and Figure 9). Past surveys show that these estimates are overly aggressive and that actual deployments will be lower. It's noteworthy that organizations are actually planning to move some Windows Vista notebooks to Windows 7, resulting in a drop for Windows Vista's installed base on notebooks from October 2009 to YE10. Generally, the incumbent product still sees an increase in the installed base the year after its successor ships, as organizations complete projects they started with the prior product and move toward homogeneity. Figure Symposium Survey: Desktop Installed Base and Forecast, October 2009 and YE10

6 Page 6 of 8 Figure Symposium Survey: Notebook Installed Base and Forecast, October 2009 and YE10 Microsoft support for Windows XP is scheduled to end in April 2014, and ISVs are likely to drop Windows XP support for their new products sooner. Organizations have some incentive to eliminate Windows XP before these events transpire. Thus, we asked survey participants the date by which they plan to eliminate Windows XP. Figure 10 and Figure 11 show their responses, which we believe are overly optimistic. While there is impetus to move to Windows XP, we expect more organizations will run up against Microsoft and ISV end-ofsupport dates. Figure Symposium Survey: By when will you eliminate Windows XP from your environment by year? Figure Symposium Survey: By when will you eliminate Windows XP from your environment by year, cumulative?

7 Page 7 of Bit Versus 64-Bit OS Perhaps the most confusing major decision organizations must make when planning their Windows 7 migrations is whether to deploy the 32-bit version of the OS or the 64-bit version. Many organizations would like to only deploy the 64-bit version, but that may prove challenging due to drivers (signed drivers are required and some, especially older, peripherals may not have such drivers) and to lingering 16-bit software, which will not run on either configuration. Though most users will not benefit from 64-bit, organizations worry that if they deploy 32- bit, they will need to eventually rebuild PCs for 64-bit, and that since most organizations will need some 64-bit Windows 7, deploying the 32-bit version would require twice the number of images. We asked attendees at our webcasts if they plan on deploying 32-bit or 64-bit Windows 7, and the responses were almost evenly divided (see Figure 12), suggesting much uncertainty. Figure Gartner Webcast Series: Will you deploy 32-bit or 64-bit Windows 7? 5.0 Hosted Virtual Desktops Many Gartner clients are investigating hosted virtual desktops (HVDs), where users run full Windows virtual machines (VMs) located on a server. Though HVDs have not yet gotten through the Trough of Disillusionment on the Gartner Hype Cycle, and many organizations are expecting cost savings, which Gartner does not believe will appear in 2010, many organizations are running HVD pilots. Gartner estimates that at the end of 2009, there were over 1.5 million users with HVDs in production. Many organizations are considering moving to HVDs when they move to Windows 7. In our Symposium survey, 22% of respondents reported that they were thinking of deploying Windows 7 and HVD simultaneously (see Figure 13), and our webcasts showed a similar percentage (see Figure 14). Figure Symposium Survey: Are you considering hosted virtual desktops? Figure to 2010 Gartner Webcast Series: Are you considering hosted virtual desktops?

8 Page 8 of Macs One of the more controversial aspects of client computing today is the issue of standardization and user choice. Some users would like to use a Mac at work instead of the standard Windows PC that most organizations provide. In our Symposium survey, we asked what policies organizations had in place regarding Mac usage. One question we asked and choices we provided were: Describe the use of Apple Macs in your environment (check all that apply): They are purchased by our organization for certain functions. Executives are demanding them and the organization is buying them. Users want them, but the organization is not buying or supporting them (don't ask, don't tell). We are providing some basic support for users who get a Mac somehow. Users are free to choose Macs or Windows PCs, and we support them equally. A slight majority of the 106 organizations' attendees who answered this question reported that they buy Macs for certain positions, which has been the case for many years (see Figure 15). More than one-third of respondents reported that their organizations do not buy or support Macs, but users may be running them ("don't ask, don't tell"). A surprising 15% reported that at least some users are free to choose whatever PC they want, and they support them equally; 11% provide some basic support for Macs, though they are not providing the Macs themselves. Together, these two responses show that 25% of organizations are providing some support for Macs, which we believe to be a growing trend. Figure Symposium Survey: Describe the Use of Apple Macs in Your Environment (Check All That Apply) 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.