Technology Watch. Data Communications 2 nd Quarter, 2012

Transcription

1 Technology Watch Data Communications 2 nd Quarter, 2012 Page 1 Commercial Version Technology Watch DCCC August 2012

2 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction Internet Traffic Growth Analysis WiFi Speed Improvements IEEE Studies the Next Generation BASE-T Next Generation Ethernet... 3 Page 2 Commercial Version Technology Watch DCCC August 2012

3 1.0 Introduction Over the last five years, Internet traffic has been growing at an exponential rate. The combination of increasing users, gateways, and services has resulted in a tremendous appetite for bandwidth. This phenomenal growth is largely attributable to the economical cost of transmitting data. However, the ability to maintain this rapid pace of expansion will require careful planning and consideration. Several recent reports and developments provide an insight into the magnitude of the situation and the outlook for future growth. 2.0 Internet Traffic Growth Analysis Two significant reports detailing the growth of IP traffic and the need for increased Ethernet bandwidth have been released. The Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, whitepaper provides an excellent analysis and breakdown of network traffic across many aspects such as locality, end user, and application. Additionally, numerous predictions are made on the expected growth of networked traffic around the world. It is expected that by the end of 2016, we will have entered the zettabyte era with nearly 1.3 zettabytes internet protocol (IP) traffic transmitted annually. That s equivalent to one trillion (10 12 or 1,000,000,000,000) gigabytes. On average, every second, 1.2 million minutes of video will transverse the internet. High traffic times will see the equivalent of 600 million people simultaneously streaming high definition video. Within that massive accumulation of data, business IP traffic is expected to increase at a compounded annual growth (CAGR) of 22% over the 5 year period from 2011 to 2016 to reach 157petabytes (10 6 gigabytes) annually. At that time, it is projected that the entirety of consumer and business data will be transmitted by IP connected devices that outnumber humans by more than 3:1. A separate industry report from the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Industry Connections Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc group looks to predict the future needs of bandwidth through the analysis of historical and predicted bandwidth growth with respect to network speed and utilization. The group investigated the bandwidth impact from data centers with respect to storage, server and switch growth. Additionally, the impacts from various transport networks and the scientific community were examined. The Page 1 Commercial Version Technology Watch DCCC August 2012

4 ad hoc group conclusion, when referenced to a 2010 baseline, was that if the current growth trend continues, IP traffic will increase by a factor of 10X by 2015 reaching a factor of 100X by However, it was stressed that this growth was only sustainable if the transmission cost/bit could continue to be reduced over time. These two reports give an insightful view of the drivers behind the consumption of bandwidth, providing the savvy IT designer clues to help anticipate network needs to accommodate future growth. 3.0 WiFi Speed Improvements The expectation of WiFi contributing significantly to the growth of IP traffic is reinforced by evidence within reports cited above. Several wireless announcements were made in the second quarter, providing a strong indicator that wireless bandwidth consumption will continue to increase over the coming years. In May, NETGEAR and Buffalo announced the availability of ac wireless routers capable of delivering up to 1300Mb/s on three beams, providing up to 3 times the throughput of the previous n generation. NETGEAR quickly followed with a USB ac USB adapter to bring elevated speeds of up to 480Mb/s to older portable clients with USB 2.0 such as legacy notebooks. At the end of June, Cisco soon followed with their Linksys ac WiFi router and bridge. However, the July 24th Broadcom announcement of a combination chip designed for smartphones and other mobile devices is perhaps the most notable. This chip brings the capability of 433 Mb/s on 80MHz ac channels to the low power environment of portable devices. Backward compatibility to 2.4 GHz b/g/n networks is maintained as well as 5 GHz a/n networks. Full production availability is expected in the first quarter of This development enables the opening of the spigot to the nearly one billion wireless devices that will game, , video conference, and access media content by the end of The expected proliferation of ac enabled devices will further stress corporate wired and wireless infrastructures. As the aggregate speeds of the access points will quickly exceed 1Gb/s, this will require the use of augmented category 6 cabling or fiber to the access point. Proper network planning and installation of the latest generation cabling will be essential to best handle the increasing influx of content requests and keep the data flowing smoothly. Page 2 Commercial Version Technology Watch DCCC August 2012

5 4.0 IEEE Studies the Next Generation BASE-T Efforts to improve copper twisted pair transmission speeds are underway. In July, the IEEE held a call for interest to determine the need and acceptance of developing the next generation of BASE-T technology. Citing the continuing need for economical and flexible high speed data transmission in the data center, the working group indicated overwhelming support to create a study group to investigate the benefits and feasibility of a speed greater than 10GB/s over twisted pair cabling. Over 51 individuals indicated an interest in helping to formulate the next iteration of twisted copper pair BASE-T. Several aspects of this project make it different from previous generations of BASE- T. First, careful consideration is being given to the immediate need and implementation path of the technology in the data center environment, which will likely lead to a standard that is friendly to a multi-stage implementation. Second, previous BASE-T components were required to operate up to a length of 100m. Due to the complexity of components in 10GBASE-T, obtaining a 100m reach was a major factor in the delay of the technology rollout. Allowing for a reduced reach next generation BASE-T variant will speed the introduction of the technology and expedite the development of an extended reach variant. Efforts will be underway to qualify various types of cabling, however, initial indications are that shielded solutions are likely to have the most success for the maximum desired distances. The next generation BASE-T technology is expected to continue to offer energy saving features currently only present with copper twisted pair Ethernet, such as wake on LAN and Low Power Idle. One can expect a standard within 5 years, and if properly specified, active equipment availability within the same timeframe. 5.0 Next Generation Ethernet Bandwidth consumption has continued along an exponential growth curve, however the industry s ability to keep up with demand may becoming stretched. The recently released IEEE Industry Connections Bandwidth Assessment Ad Hoc report indicates a projected 100x growth in IP traffic demand between 2010 and In July, the IEEE held a new Industry Connections Higher Speed Ethernet Consensus ad hoc meeting to Page 3 Commercial Version Technology Watch DCCC August 2012

6 begin consensus building for the next generation Ethernet speed. The unofficial IEEE guideline of having the next generation technology provide 10 times the speed at 3 times the cost has previously helped determine of which technologies became standardized. This technology metric provided a budget for bandwidth expansion without bursting the customer s budget for adoption. However, the technology complexity has increased dramatically as the industry has progressed along at this logarithmic pace. As the component speeds increase, the technology required for designing, developing, testing and manufacturing the next generation becomes increasingly expensive. Several pressing issues must be considered for the next generation. The near term projected need of bandwidth must be balanced with the ability to deliver the technology in a timely and affordable fashion. that would require this speed is substantially less than those needing 10/40/and 100G providing less opportunity to recover research and development costs. Combined with the expectation of the customer to provide this technology at or below the bit/second cost of 100Gb/s Ethernet, there is growing concern about the industry s ability to adequately fund future research development tools to keep pace. The Industry Connections Higher Speed Ethernet Consensus ad hoc is tasked with recommending the speed of the next generation of Ethernet that will best satisfy the bandwidth demands of future applications, the budgets of IT departments and the business constraints of companies tasked with developing the technology. Recycling current technology helps, such as what occurred in 100GBASE-SR10 and 40GBASE-SR4. This points towards a 400Gb/s solution as the next milestone. However this process of recycling may become problematic. The number of links Page 4 Commercial Version Technology Watch DCCC August 2012

7 Nexans Data Communications Competence Center, located at the Berk Tek Headquarters in New Holland, Pennsylvania, focuses on advanced product design, applications and materials development for networking and data communication cabling solutions. The Advanced Design and Applications team uses state of the art, proprietary testing and modeling tools to translate emerging network requirements into new cabling solutions. The Advanced Materials Development and Advanced Manufacturing Processes teams utilize sophisticated analytical capabilities that facilitate the design of superior materials and processes. The Standardization and Technology group analyzes leading edge and emerging technologies and coordinates data communication standardization efforts to continuously refine Nexans Technology Roadmap. An international team of experts in the fields of cable, connectors, materials, networking, standards, communications and testing supports the competence center. The competence center laboratories are a part of an extensive global R&D network. Page 5 Commercial Version Technology Watch DCCC August 2012