Update on fibre deployments in South Africa & drivers and inhibitors. Tim Parle Senior Telecoms Consultant
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1 Update on fibre deployments in South Africa & drivers and inhibitors Tim Parle Senior Telecoms
2 BMI-TechKnowledge strives to be a trusted and respected research and advisory partner by providing our clients with valuable information, strategic advice, and dependable assistance to help them implement their strategies effectively. Telecoms Digital consumer Vertical industries IT Geospatial Other industries Public sector CSAT Insight
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4 We are the advisors to advisors
5 Agenda
6 National long distance networks Update on fibre deployments in South Africa
7 National long distance routes Source: BMI-T,2014
8 National long distance routes including Broadband Infraco Source: BMI-T,2014
9 National long distance routes including Broadband Infraco and Telkom Source: BMI-T,2014
10 National long distance routes: Planned or proposed Source: BMI-T,2014
11 NLD route distances (current and future) As built As built plus known build programme FibreCo Cobuild Liquid SAS DFA BBI Telkom Source: BMI-T,2014
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13 Source: BMI-T,2014
14 Cooling off of submarine cables projects, upgrade of existing systems Source: ManyPossibilities, 2014
15 Metro fibre networks Update on fibre deployments in South Africa
16 The FTTB/FTTP market heating up
17 Consolidation in the market
18 Metro municipality tenders and development MetroConnect continues LinkAfrica? 1000km network build completed in rd party use of fibre April 2014 Fibre optic tender August 2014 Broadband tender October 2014
19 It s not all plain sailing: Legal wranglings
20 Access and FTTx networks Update on fibre deployments in South Africa
21 The most exciting news of the year?
22 Telkom has shown its cards Source: Telkom,2014
23 Telkom - the Wildcard in the FTTH market? Source: Telkom,2014
24 Telkom FTTH suburbs Source: Telkom,2014
25 Changing price of ADSL services (at Telkom rates) R 250 Average cost per GB of ADSL bandwidth R Average annual cost to user of ADSL service R 200 R R 150 R R 100 R R 50 R R - R R - Min Average Max Source: BMI-T,2014 NB: excluding line and ADSL service costs NB: includes line and ADSL service costs, 12 m TCO
26 FTTH drivers and inhibitors Drivers Global content consumption trends IPTV: global revenue 11.8% CAGR, reaching $43bn in 2018* Supply-driven trends, e.g. Telkom or Vodacom partners with Netflix? What MultiChoice does Mobile operators bridging with wireless access Risk-taking by property developers (e.g. Century) and telcos like Telkom**and Neotel (Maboneng) Inhibitors Business case Fibre is expensive compared to the cost of a standard DSTV subscription via satellite, plus a broadband service based on ADSL or wireless alternatives. DSTV s grip on sport content, and the reasonable pricing of its bouquets, especially when compared against the alternative of a fibre-based connectivity service. Require high residential density for reasonable ROI. *China, France and the US account for half the global IPTV market. **Telkom FTTH pilots in Rosebank, Bryanston, Waterkloof, La Palma and Plantations in Durban. 45 customers.technical trials underway in three gated communities. Telkom has earmarked end 2014 for commercial launch of FTTH. 26
27 Neighbouring countries / Southern Africa Update on fibre deployments in Southern Africa
28 Fibre development in Southern Africa Source: AfterFibre, 2013
29 Road lengths in neighbouring countries Zimbabwe Swaziland South Africa Namibia Paved Unpaved Mozambique Lesotho Botswana Source: United Nations, BMI-T, 2013
30 Fibre and optical technology Update on fibre deployments in South Africa
31
32 System capacity in Tbps Evolution of DWDM capacity 20 Evolution of DWDM capacity (Commercial systems, single fibre pair)
33 Record breaking Coriant Sets Guinness World Records Title with the World s Highest Data Transmission Rate Over Hollow Core Optical Fiber Coriant Continues Its Push For Innovative, Bleeding-Edge Research NAPERVILLE, Illinois, 3 June 2014 Coriant, a global supplier of dynamic metro-to-core transport solutions, announced today that Guinness World Records has certified Coriant's achievement of the world's highest data transmission rate of 57.6Tb/s (gross rate of 73.7Tb/s) over hollow core optical fiber. This award becomes the Company's first fiber optic feat to be recognized by Guinness World Records, which is the authority on record-breaking achievements around the world. Source: Image credit MyBroadband, 2014
34 South African provincial broadband projects Update on fibre deployments in South Africa
35 Progress with provincial broadband projects
36 Legal and regulatory developments Update on fibre deployments in South Africa
37 Changing landscape Change in DoC to DoC & DOTPS in 2014 Size of the market: mobile operators since 1994/5 1 fixed operator until individual licensees since 2008 probably around 40 are operational today Active licenced telecoms operators
38 ICASA changing shape At the end of October 2014, four Councilors end their term of office The Minister of the DOC has told them to leave No need for a handover The Minister would like to change the number of councilors from 9 to 5 The CEO may gain a vote on the Council.. despite the provisions of the ICASA Act, which has only just been amended Source: Incyte Consulting, BMI-T, 2014
39 Regulatory outlook There will be little if any movement on land access and rapid deployment guidelines this year ICASA has yet to publish reasons for its General Licence Fee Regulations Despite the expiry of the PAJA deadline in August ICASA is unlikely to publish any ownership and control regulations for comment for some time and the previous findings seem to have disappeared Source: Incyte Consulting, BMI-T, 2014
40 National Broadband Policy: South Africa Connect The four pillars of SA Connect: Digital readiness Digital future Digital opportunity Digital development.
41 Some more loose ends: SA Connect could languish in a drawer We will probably talk about access in terms of coverage because rural areas have patchy electricity, no access to devices, and very little understanding of what the internet is or what it can be used for Operators also have little incentive to cover these areas because they are uneconomic The ambitious speed targets could become largely irrelevant while we decide what open access is and if any licensee/soc should take the role of the open access provider The progress made in so many other developing countries in e-government, e-education and e-medicine might be noticeable only by its absence Source: Incyte Consulting, BMI-T,
42 The end of the road (for today) Update on fibre deployments in South Africa
43 Summary and conclusions NLD network consortia being revised and holding back for next wave Delays benefit incumbent providers New build submarine projects rationalised & existing routes upgraded Metro municipality fibre and broadband projects again in vogue Implications of unnecessary duplication in fibre building coming to roost? FTTB is hotting up with consolidation in the market Vodacom & Neotel, DFA & Conduct, LinkAfrica &??? FTTH made great strides in 2014 Parkhurst is the innovative project Telkom remain the wildcard
44 Summary and conclusions Provincial projects started in Gauteng and Western Cape Preliminary steps in other provinces DWDM technology advances provide new life to old fibre (routes) and defer the need for investment in new routes Decision to split the Ministry of Communications and create the Ministry of Telecommunications and Postal Service has hampered progress Long-tail effect Rapid deployment guidelines on ice Green shoots for SA Connect Regulatory uncertainty remains investor confidence?
45 Follow us 45
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