Storage Network Infrastructure Market Definitions and Forecast Methodology Guide, Gartner Dataquest Guide

Transcription

1 Storage Network Infrastructure Market Definitions and Forecast Methodology Guide, 2003 Gartner Dataquest Guide Publication Date: 21 July 2003

2 GARTNER WORLDWIDE HEADQUARTERS NORTH AMERICA Corporate Headquarters 56 Top Gallant Road Stamford, CT U.S.A. Tel: Fax: West Coast Headquarters 251 River Oaks Parkway San Jose, CA U.S.A. Tel: Fax: Latin America Headquarters Gartner do Brasil Av. Nacoes Unidas andar - Torre Oeste CEP Sao Paulo SP Brasil Tel: Fax: EUROPE European Headquarters Tamesis The Glanty Egham Surrey, TW20 9AW United Kingdom Tel: Fax: ASIA/PACIFIC Asia/Pacific Headquarters Level 7 40 Miller St. North Sydney, NSW 2060 Australia Tel: Fax: JAPAN Japan Headquarters Aobadai Hills 6F 7-7, Aobadai, 4-chome Meguro-ku Tokyo Japan Tel: Fax: Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

3 Storage Network Infrastructure Market Definitions and Forecast Methodology Guide, 2003 Gartner Dataquest Guide Publication Date: 21 July 2003

4 Author James Opfer This document has been published to the following Cluster codes: HARD-WW-GU-0013 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice

5 Table of Contents Page 1. Market Segmentation... 1 FC SAN Components... 1 FC SAN Extenders... 1 iscsi Products... 1 IBA-FC Bridge Products... 2 Segmentation Summary... 2 FC SAN Components... 2 FC SAN Extenders... 2 iscsi Initiator and iscsi-fc Bridge Products... 2 IBA-FC Bridge Products Definitions... 3 Disk Storage Systems... 3 FC SAN Components and FC SAN Extenders... 3 iscsi-related Components... 4 InfiniBand-Related Components... 4 Other Definitions Forecast Methodology... 5 Forecast of SAN-Attached Terabytes and Terabyte Port Ratio... 5 Forecast of Combined Server and Storage Ports Attached to a SAN... 5 Forecast of HBA and Switching Products Market... 5 Size Distribution of FC SANs... 6 Forecast for Hybrid SAN Products... 6 Forecast for iscsi Initiators... 6 Forecast for IBA-FC Bridge Products... 6 Appendix A Glossary of Terms... 7 List of Tables Table Page A-1 Report Glossary Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. iii

6 iv Storage Network Infrastructure Market Definitions and Forecast Methodology Guide, Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 21 July 2003

7 Chapter 1 Market Segmentation FC SAN Components FC SAN Extenders Gartner Dataquest's segmentation of the storage network infrastructure market recognizes the large installed base of Fibre Channel (FC) storage area network (SAN) products; the expected emergence and growth of products based on the Internet small computer systems interface (iscsi) protocol and InfiniBand architecture (IBA); and products that bridge iscsi and IBA to FC SANs. The four market segments of the storage network infrastructure market are as follows: FC SAN components FC SAN extenders iscsi products IBA-FC bridges FC SAN components consist of hubs and switching products that interconnect multiple servers and storage devices through FC links in a SAN and components at the SAN periphery host bus adapters (HBAs) and storage routers that provide the transition from FC to connected devices. Hub products include entry hubs, managed hubs and access hubs. The FC switching products market is divided into fabric switches, core switching products and embedded switches. The core switching products subsegment comprises high availability (HA) core switching products including directors, other high port count switching products and switching application platforms. The HBA market is divided into adapter cards and embedded adapters. Port speeds of 1, 2, 4 and 10 gigabits per second (Gbps) further divide the subsegments of switching products and HBAs. FC SAN extenders are devices that enable port-to-port transport of FC frames between physically separate FC SANs over other networks or special point-topoint links. They are classified as SAN-LAN, SAN-metropolitan-area network (MAN) and SAN-WAN extenders based on range of extension. The forecast distinguishes dense wave division multiplexer (DWDM) SAN-MAN extenders that transport unchanged FC frames from those that map the FC frames onto asynchronous transfer mode (ATM), Internet Protocol (IP) or Synchronous Optical Network (SONET). iscsi Products iscsi products include iscsi initiators and iscsi-fc bridge products. iscsi initiators appear to the host as storage adapters (such as HBAs) with full processing of the storage stack or network interface cards (NICs). HBAs appear to the server operating system as a small computer systems interface (SCSI) adapter. NIC-based initiators typically require host involvement for implementation of the storage stack while retaining the NIC functionality. The forecast distinguishes NICs with TCP/IP hardware acceleration from those without. The report classifies iscsi initiators according to port speed of 1 or 10 Gbps. The report classifies iscsi-fc bridge products as FC-iSCSI gateways or iscsi-fc converters, depending on the bridging process. Gateways provide connection of iscsi-enabled servers to the FC SAN and all connected devices. Converters provide connection to individual ports on native FC storage devices. Gateways and converters appear as point products connected to net Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 1

8 2 Storage Network Infrastructure Market Definitions and Forecast Methodology Guide, 2003 IBA-FC Bridge Products Segmentation Summary work switches or storage systems. As such, they may be stand-alone products or may be integrated into switches or storage systems. IBA-FC input/output (I/O) bridges provide IBA server nodes access to storage devices on a FC SAN by translating serial SCSI commands transported over IBA into FC protocol for FC SAN connection. FC SAN Components FC SAN components are segmented as follows: Switching products Fabric switches Core switching products Embedded switches HBAs Adapter cards Embedded adapters Hubs Entry hubs Managed hubs Access hubs FC-SCSI storage routers FC SAN Extenders FC SAN extenders are segmented as follows: SAN-LAN extenders SAN-MAN extenders DWDM ATM, IP or SONET SAN-WAN extenders iscsi Initiator and iscsi-fc Bridge Products iscsi Initiator and iscsi-fc bridge products are segmented as follows: iscsi initiators iscsi HBAs NICs and iscsi drivers NICs with hardware acceleration and iscsi drivers FC-iSCSI gateways FC-iSCSI converters IBA-FC Bridge Products IBA-FC bridge products include IBA-FC I/O bridges Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 21 July 2003

9 Chapter 2 Definitions Disk Storage Systems External hardware redundant array of inexpensive disks (RAID) controllerbased storage is a RAID-based storage solution in which the hardware RAID controller and the disk drives are housed separately from the server in a HA external RAID enclosure. The external hardware RAID controller-based storage system may be attached directly to the server(s) or to a SAN. FC SAN Components and FC SAN Extenders Product definitions are as follows: Entry hub A device that incorporates the elements of an FC-Arbitrated Loop (FC-AL) in a single multi-port unit capable of connecting two attached devices at any one time with FC links in a star configuration. Negotiation of access to the loop and limitation to connection of two devices at any one time with the resultant bandwidth constraint remain the same as for a physical loop. However, a hub can automatically bypass a problem or nonoperating node and allow connection directly between operating nodes. Managed hub A hub device that, together with software, implements network management technology to provide topology and hub status along with loop and hub diagnostics. Access negotiation and bandwidth conditions are the same as for entry hubs. Switch A device that provides multiple simultaneous interconnections between pairs of ports with the resultant increase in total bandwidth. Switches require and provide management capability. Switches are available for fabric interconnection or implementation of the FC-AL protocol. The latter provides the full bandwidth of a switch while allowing interoperation in a relatively less complex installation with devices qualified for FC-AL protocol. Access hub A device capable of supporting multiple concurrent switched FC-AL loops Director A high port count (64 or more in 2002) switch product that provides centralized management, redundancy of active support elements and automatic failover. A director is a highly available stand-alone unit, while switches may require unit redundancy for similar levels of availability. FC-SCSI storage router A device that provides for bidirectional connectivity of legacy SCSI storage devices not designed to accommodate FC connection to FC SANs HBA A circuit board attached to the computer, which, together with the bus, provides a communication path between the central processing unit and peripheral devices. FC HBAs support more than one protocol, such as IP or SCSI. HBAs support a particular bus architecture and, together with software tailored to the operating system, can support multiple operating systems and topologies. HA core switching products Switching products defined by the following characteristics: Port counts of 64 or greater HA, typically percent or greater, requiring as a minimum internal redundancy and the capability of hot firmware upgrades and downgrades 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 3

10 4 Storage Network Infrastructure Market Definitions and Forecast Methodology Guide, 2003 iscsi-related Components Modularity of architecture that allows functions supplemental to that of high-availability switching Availability of interoperable edge switches FC SAN extender A device that enables port-to-port transport of FC frames between physically separate FC SANs over other networks or special point-to-point links FC SAN-LAN extender An extender designed for use over LANs whose range is less than 10 kilometers, typically no requiring special flow control buffer credits FC SAN-MAN extender An extender designed for use over MANs or WANs whose range is limited to a few hundred kilometers requiring substantially greater buffer credits but not requiring other special flow control to achieve full link performance. Extension over DWDM links that provide optical transport of various protocol frames without modification from point to point is treated as a special case not specific to FC SANs. FC SAN-WAN extender An extender designed for use over WANs whose range exceeds a few hundred kilometers requiring special treatment of flow control to enable full available link performance. Product definitions are as follows: InfiniBand-Related Components Other Definitions FC SAN iscsi gateway A bridge between FC- and TCP/IP-based networks providing translation between FC and iscsi protocols iscsi-fc converter A module for converting an FC target port to an IP port supporting the iscsi protocol iscsi initiator A device, typically an expansion board, capable of translating between CPU SCSI storage commands and the iscsi protocol and providing the physical interface to the TCP/IP-based network iscsi HBA An iscsi initiator that provides for processing of the storage stack and TCP/IP flow control, the latter typically with hardware acceleration Accelerated NIC A NIC that provides varying degrees of TCP/IP hardware acceleration. NIC iscsi initiator A NIC accompanied by iscsi driver Product definitions are as follows: InfiniBand server nodes Servers attached to an InfiniBand subnet InfiniBand-FC I/O bridge Bridge between FC and InfiniBand networks providing InfiniBand server node access to FC SANs Compound annual growth rate is a fixed yearly growth rate which, repeated annually, gives the growth from beginning to end of a specified period Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 21 July 2003

11 Chapter 3 Forecast Methodology Market forecasts are derived from a comprehensive model that establishes relationships among other Gartner Dataquest forecasts, such as for servers and external hardware RAID server storage, and parameters specific to the storage network market. The forecast model is constructed to fit available market data for the previous year, as a boundary condition. Pricing trends and certain market structures reflect input from representatives of major market participants. Additional impact of macroeconomic factors may be introduced explicitly in the model. The detailed process for the FC SAN-centric forecast involves steps described in this chapter. Forecast of SAN-Attached Terabytes and Terabyte Port Ratio The methodology combines a projection of the growth of SAN-attached terabytes with a modeling of the ratio of FC ports to terabytes stored on storage systems to provide a forecast for SAN-attached storage system ports. Disaggregation of servers and storage, and sharing of storage devices are creating new dynamics for the storage market. Because of this change, the forecast derives information about SAN-attached terabytes from forecasts of the external hardware RAID controller-based server storage market and a separate analysis of trends and information from FC-SAN component vendors. The forecast of SAN-attached terabytes a major factor influencing the scale of the storage network infrastructure is a critical representation of the judgment of the forecaster. Storage system product specifications detail FC port count and maximum capacity of a fully populated system. Fractional capacity use can be introduced as a parameter to allow matching actual market statistics for previous years. Once this has been done, modeling of storage system architecture can predict how the ratio of ports to terabytes will scale with the adoption of disk drives with increasing area density and associated internal data rates. Further, capacity use can also be varied to accommodate changing patterns of customer capacity use. Forecast of Combined Server and Storage Ports Attached to a SAN The two preceding steps enable calculation of storage port count. An adjustable parameter for the ratio of server ports to storage ports allows the calculation of combined count. The assumed progression of this ratio over the forecast period is another critical input affecting market scale. Forecast of HBA and Switching Products Market SAN-attached server port counts, together with pricing assumptions, provides the critical input for forecast of the HBA market. Estimates of the distribution of HBA ports among product classes and port speeds complete the data necessary for a revenue forecast. The combined count of server and storage ports determines the number of switching products deployed after allocation of switch link ports internal to the SAN and extra capacity ports. Estimates of the distribution of ports among the various product classes and port speeds and a projection of port price behavior enable a forecast of switching product revenue by product class Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 5

12 6 Storage Network Infrastructure Market Definitions and Forecast Methodology Guide, 2003 Size Distribution of FC SANs For many of the hybrid SAN products, such as extenders and bridge products, the economic justification for implementation depends on the size of the associated FC SAN. Consequently, estimates of the number of SANs deployed for various ranges of switch port counts are vital for assessing the market available for the hybrid products. The forecast develops a SAN-size distribution consistent with total forecast switching products and presents this distribution as a forecast item. Forecast for Hybrid SAN Products Forecast for iscsi Initiators Forecasts for extenders and bridge products are derived from input estimates of deployment of these products for various sizes of SANs and estimates of pricing data. Current actual prices and trends based on vendor projections and independent analysis determine pricing forecast data The forecast for iscsi initiators reflects a contribution from homogeneous iscsi SANs and from connections to FC storage by means of iscsi-fc bridge products. The first contribution is forecast using ratios of HBAs to SAN-attached storage derived from the FC forecast process in the absence of information suggesting a different deployment paradigm. Estimates of ratios of iscsi server ports to bridge product ports provide the number of associated initiators. The forecast provides estimates of the distribution of iscsi initiators between NICs with or without TCP/IP hardware acceleration enabled by iscsi software and iscsi HBAs incorporating TCP/IP hardware acceleration. Forecast pricing data enables product revenue forecasts. Forecast for IBA-FC Bridge Products Performance requirements establish an expected ratio of bridge ports to IBA server nodes. A plausible forecast for IBA server node deployment together with bridge port pricing estimates enables a forecast for IBA-FC bridge product revenue. This forecast presents assumptions about IBA server deployment Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 21 July 2003

13 Appendix A Glossary of Terms Table A-1 defines the acronyms and abbreviations used in this report. Table A-1 Report Glossary Acronym/Abbreviation AL ATM DWDM FC Gbps HA HBA I/O IBA IP iscsi MAN NIC RAID SAN SCSI SONET Source: Gartner Dataquest (July 2003) Definition arbitrated loop asynchronous transfer mode dense wave division multiplexer Fibre Channel gigabits per second high availability host bus adapter input/output InfiniBand architecture Internet Protocol Internet small computer systems interface metropolitan-area network network interface card redundant array of independent disks storage area network small computer systems interface Synchronous Optical Network 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 7

14 8 Storage Network Infrastructure Market Definitions and Forecast Methodology Guide, Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 21 July 2003