2002 Semiconductor Equipment Market Share Analysis (Executive Summary) Executive Summary

Transcription

1 2002 Semiconductor Equipment Market Share Analysis (Executive Summary) Executive Summary Publication Date: 2 May 2003

2 Authors Mark Stromberg Klaus Rinnen Jim Walker Robert Johnson Dean Freeman Takashi Ogawa Masao Kuniba This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: SEMC-WW-EX-0228 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice

3 2002 Semiconductor Equipment Market Share Analysis (Executive Summary) 2002 Market Share Overview The Ranking Shuffle Semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales experienced a second year of steep decline of over 30 percent in Gartner Dataquest's final market share estimates for the year show that growth for manufacturing equipment (excluding test equipment) stands at negative 30.4 percent. The dire outcome for 2002 was the result of a slower-than-anticipated end-user demand and an increasing level of macroeconomic uncertainty that hit semiconductor vendors rapidly in the second half of Consequently, spending plans were adjusted downward, projects were delayed or shelved and equipment orders were either pushed out or canceled. At the end, sales in 2002 were at a level that is 54 percent below the peak in Total market size was $18.5 billion, using SAB 101 accounting (revenue recognition policy for companies publicly traded in the United States) as the basis for revenue in Equipment purchases were focused on upgrades at facilities and bringing R&D capability for 0.13 micron or 300 mm, or both, into first production capacity. In 2002, the regional rate of decline was influenced by steep cuts in sales into Japan and Europe, compared with, relatively speaking, spending "strength" in Asia/Pacific, partly affected by increased sales into China. Consequently, in 2002, Asia/Pacific became the largest region for equipment consumption, overtaking the Americas, which slipped into second position in Japan and Europe followed. Taiwanese sales, after tumbling in 2001, actually outperformed the overall market by nearly 20 points. As for the Rest of Asia/ Pacific, sales decreased less dramatically than worldwide sales, as increases in China offset declines in other parts of the region. While Japan saw the smallest decline of only 19 percent in 2001 compared with the 33 percent decline worldwide that year, sales into Japan during 2002 dropped by nearly 43 percent. Japanese companies were late to join the "spending party" from 1999 through 2000, and they also were slower in curtailing spending. But given the severe business conditions in 2002, Japanese companies cut back sharply because a restructuring of the industry was in full swing. The top players and their market share positions are listed in Table 1. The 2002 market was kinder to companies in "hot" technology segments, such as lithography, photomask, copper interconnect, factory automation, contact probe, flip chip and interconnect bonding. On the other hand, companies more dependent on capacity buys and greenfield (new facilities) activity were more negatively affected. The relative weakness of Japan's equipment consumption was a negative for Japanese vendors in 2002, just as the relative strength of Japan in 2001 was a plus for these vendors. Milder declines in the packaging and assembly segment, compared with the wafer fab equipment segment, allowed players in the former to regain some ground lost in Despite a milder reduction, only one pure-play packaging and assembly company ranked in the top 20 in Tokyo Seimitsu moved into the No. 14 position in 2002 from No. 20 in 2001 through a combination of a slight increase in its packaging and assembly sales as well as a strong expansion of its wafer fab equipment business in Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 1

4 Semiconductor Equipment Market Share Analysis (Executive Summary) Table 1 Top 20 Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Vendors by Revenue in 2002 (Millions of Dollars) 2002 Rank 2001 Rank 2002 Revenue 2001 Revenue Change (%) 2002 Market Share (%) 1 1 Applied Materials 3, , Tokyo Electron 1, , ASML 1, , KLA-Tencor 1, , Nikon , Novellus Systems , Lam Research , Hitachi Canon , Dainippon Screen Brooks Automation Axcelis Technology/SEN Asyst Technologies Tokyo Seimitsu ASM International Varian ASM Pacific Ebara Mattson Technology HP North American companies 9, , Japanese companies 6, , European companies 2, , Asia/Pacific companies Joint-venture companies Identified companies 17, , Other companies , All companies 18, , OEM elimination Net Total 18, , Notes: All data exclude testing equipment rankings changed because of the inclusion of original equipment manufacturer (OEM) sales. Table 1 includes revenue from acquisitions in 2002 for the entire year; 2001 data are prior to acquisitions; growth is organic as well as through acquisitions. OEM elimination is the deduction of sales to original equipment makers. Source: Gartner Dataquest (April 2003) 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 May 2003

5 2002 Semiconductor Equipment Market Share Analysis (Executive Summary) 3 Gartner Dataquest Perspective 2002 saw a further decline in capital equipment spending. After steep drops over the past two years, spending shrunk 54 percent from the peak in With the decline of 2002, spending has dropped below 1999 levels but remains above 1998 levels. A short spending bubble in mid-2002 brought some first sequential quarterly sales improvements but was only short-lived, giving in to a second contraction in equipment, which will last into the first half of Differences in regional and individual spending preferences led to some changes in the rankings among top vendors. For 2003, we expect the return of positive growth to capital equipment. While the economic holding pattern in the first quarter has reduced the growth potential for the semiconductor industry in 2003, a resolution of some issues appearstobeunderway,loweringthedegreeofuncertaintyandmakingroom for strengthening economic growth. When we fold in improvements in supply fundamentals during 2002, we hold some level of optimism in our forecasts. Consequently, we anticipate a most likely revenue growth of 10 percent for semiconductor equipment in For the full reports on semiconductor equipment, see the Gartner Dataquest Market Statistics "2002 Semiconductor Equipment Market Share Analysis" (SCEM-WW-MS-0149), "2002 Deposition Equipment Market Share Analysis" (SCEM-WW-MS-0151), "2002 Semiconductor Lithography Equipment Market Share Analysis" (SCEM-WW-MS-0152), "2002 Etch and Clean Equipment Market Share Analysis" (SCEM-WW-MS-0153), "2002 Ion Implantation Equipment Market Share Analysis" (SCEM-WW-MS-0154), "2002 Diffusion/Oxidation and RTP Equipment Market Share Analysis" (SCEM- WW-MS-0155), "2002 Packaging and Assembly Equipment Market Share Analysis" (SCEM-WW-MS-0156), "2002 Manufacturing Automation Equipment Market Share Analysis" (SCEM-WW-MS-0157), and "2002 Process Control Equipment Market Share Analysis (SCEM-WW-MS-0158) Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 2 May 2003