AS Numbers. RIPE October Geoff Huston APNIC

Transcription

1 AS Numbers RIPE October 2005 Geoff Huston APNIC 1

2 2 Current AS Number Status

3 AS Numbers The 16 bit AS number field in BGP has 64,510 available values to use in the Internet s public routing space Some 39,934 AS numbers have already been assigned by the RIRs 24,576 AS Numbers remain in the unallocated number pool 3

4 This Presentation: 1. When will we run through the remaining AS number pool? 2. What is the replacement proposal? 3. How does transition work? What are the impacts to current operations? 4

5 1. When? Assemble data sets of daily snapshots: Advertised AS count RIR Assigned AS count IANA Assigned AS Blocks count Inferred Unadvertised AS count Use previous 1000 days to derive best fit model to advertised and unadvertised AS sequences 5

6 Assumptions in this model No recovery of unused ASs Not clear what the cost / benefit of any such recovery may be This model assumes that there is no initiated effort of unused AS number recovery Constant drivers for AS number demands No saturation point for AS Numbers No disruptive change in the use of AS Numbers Constant business drivers for AS number consumption No rush on remaining AS numbers No scarcity induced rush on remaining AS number pools, and no change in RIR AS allocation policies 6

7 7 Advertised AS Count Projections

8 Linear or Exponential Trend? Exponential model has lower error to existing data 8

9 Observations Old (low) AS number ranges have the highest unannounced / announced ratios AS numbers age out and disappear 5% attrition rate per year Recent assignments take some 4 months to be advertised LIR staging point factors 9

10 Generating an AS Consumption Model Attempt to predict the point when the first RIR is unable to meet a request for an AS number from its pool of useable AS numbers Use Exponential growth model for advertised AS numbers Use a linear model of the unadvertised / advertised ratio projection Use recent RIR allocation rates to determine relative consumption in the model Generate RIR Pool consumption model based on low water thresholds for IANA allocation point Model the RIR pool behaviour and look for the point when the RIR pool is exhausted and there is no further IANA resource to allocate to the RIR 10

11 AS Number Consumption Model PREDICTION 11

12 Current AS Use Projections The model predicts that the available AS number pool will exhaust in the timeframe of late 2010 (17 September 2010) Assumes: No significant reclamation of unadvertised AS s from the allocated AS number space No change in RIRs AS assignment policies Steadily increasing consumption trend No last change rush on remaining AS numbers 12

13 2. What? Expand the size of the AS Number pool from 65,536 to 4,294,967,296 values Use a 32 bit (4-Byte) field for this value draft-ietf-idr-as4bytes-11.txt describes how Carry all AS numbers using 4-Byte fields in BGP messages AS_PATH, AGGREGATOR This is proposed for publication as Proposed Standard Two independent implementations (Juniper, Redstone) have been tested for interoperation proposal now on the path to Proposed Standard within the IETF 13

14 3. How? Existing BGP speakers do not need to upgrade their BGP implementation BGP speakers in AS s using 4-Byte ASNs will need to deploy NEW (4-Byte) BGP At some point we will need to start field testing various transition plans and vendor implementations, set up a new AS number registry, commence RIR assignments of 4-Byte AS Numbers commence deployment of these extended length protocol objects in BGP phase out RIR assignments of 2-Byte AS Numbers 14

15 The 4-Byte Proposal Objective Change as little as possible in the BGP spec Be backward compatible with 2-Byte BGP implementations Preserve AS semantics Preserve loop detection capability Preserve AS Path length metric No flag day Allow 2-Byte implementations to continue to operate indefinitely in a mixed 2 / 4-Byte AS world 15

16 4-Byte AS Transition Think about this space as a set of NEW / OLD boundaries Define the NEW / OLD and the OLD / NEW transitions Preserve all BGP information at the transition interfaces Translate 4-Byte AS Path information into a 2-Byte representation Tunnel 4-Byte AS Path information through 2-Byte AS domain 16

17 BGP session behaviour OLD to NEW transition Map 2 to 4 with zero padding (*) OLD NEW AS1 AS2 AS1:10 AS1:20 AS PATH (1) (2,1) (0:2,0:1) (1:10,0:2,0:1) 17

18 BGP sessions NEW to OLD transition Save 4-Byte AS path in NEW_AS_PATH attribute Map all 4-Byte AS s to 2-Byte equivalent (either strip leading 0 s or replace with AS 23456) NEW OLD AS1:10 AS0:3 AS1:20 AS1 AS2 AS PATH (1:10) (0:3,1:10) (1:20,0:3,1:10) (23456,3,23456) (1,23456,3,23456) Mapped AS PATH NEW AS PATH (23456,3,23456) (1:20,0:3,1:10) (1:20,0:3,1:10) (1:20,0:3,1:10) 18

19 BGP sessions OLD to NEW transition with NEW AS PATH Map 2 to 4 with zero padding Rewrite trailing entries from NEW_AS_PATH OLD NEW AS1 AS2 AS1:30 AS1:40 AS PATH (1,23456,3,23456) (2,1,23456,3,23456) (0:2,0:1,1:20,0:3,1:10) (1:30,0:2,0:1,1:20,0:3,1:10) NEW AS PATH (1:20,0:3,0:10) (1:20,0:3,0:10) 19

20 Implications BGP speakers in 2-Byte AS domains Must support NEW_AS_PATH as a transitive opaque community attribute Can continue with OLD code indefinitely May run NEW code BGP speakers in 4-Byte AS domains Must run NEW code 20

21 Observations Need to support BGP Extended Communities to specify a 4-Byte AS in community attributes No third-party on the wire decode of BGP messages unless the initial capability negotiation is visible (no on-the-wire flag for 4-Byte sessions) Cannot flick from 2-Byte OLD to 4-Byte NEW mode within an active BGP session A single BGP speaker could in theory simultaneously be a NEW and an OLD speaker in different sessions, but this is not required in the specification Generation of NEW_AS_PATH is not always required on NEW to OLD transition Only generated when there are non-mappable AS entries in the 4-Byte AS Path 21

22 The AS Number Report Paper 22