Internet Addressing and the RIR system (part 2)

Transcription

1 Internet Addressing and the RIR system (part 2) 12 February 2004 Phnom Penh, Cambodia Paul Wilson, APNIC

2 Overview Part 2 Allocation statistics Asia Pacific Internet Resource statistics Global Internet Resource statistics IPv4 lifetime expectation More on Addressing policy How to participate in open policy processes

3 APNIC Internet Resource Allocation

4 Resource Allocation Statistics IP addresses mirror Internet growth Represent deployed infrastructure Distributed in consistent fashion APNIC can provide objective, factual info Analysis of trends Allocation patterns per country over time Comparison with other regions Correlation of IP addresses with... Population, GDP, etc

5 Millions IPv4 addresses allocated - annual Other TW TH SG NZ MY KR JP IN ID HK CN AU 0 Pre

6 IPv4 addresses allocated - total Millions : : : : : : Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04

7 IPv4 distribution in Asia Pacific CN 28% KR 19% TW 7% AU 3% HK 3% Other 8% SG 1% NZ 1% ID 1% Other 1% TH 1% IN 2% JP 32% MY 1%

8 ASNs assigned - cumulative : : : : : Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03

9 ASN distribution in Asia Pacific AU 17% HK 8% CN 6% TW 5% NZ 4% ID 3% TH 3% SG 3% MY 1% AP 1% PK 1% Other 13% Other 3% JP 19% KR 20% PH 3% IN 3%

10 Global Internet Resource Statistics

11 IPv4 Address Space Status: /8 RIPE NCC 12 APNIC 11 Total /8 blocks available: 256 LACNIC 2 ARIN 16 Experimental 16 IANA Reserve 91 Multicast 16 Central Registry

12 IPv4 allocations from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Yearly comparison APNIC ARIN LACNIC RIPE NCC

13 IPv4 allocations from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Cumulative total ARIN % LACNIC % APNIC % RIPE NCC % 1 Jan Dec 03

14 3,000 ASN assignments from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Yearly comparison 2,500 APNIC ARIN LACNIC RIPE NCC 2,000 1,500 1,

15 ASN assignments from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Cumulative total LACNIC 540 3% ARIN % APNIC % RIPE NCC % 1 Jan Dec 03

16 IPv6 allocations from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Yearly comparison APNIC ARIN LACNIC RIPE NCC

17 IPv6 allocations from RIRs to LIRs/ISPs - Cumulative total ARIN 84 16% LACNIC 14 3% APNIC % RIPE NC % 1 Jan Dec 03

18 IPv4 Address Lifetime Expectancy - Are we running out of IPv4 addresses? Research activity conducted by Geoff Huston and supported by APNIC

19 Are We Running Out of IPv4? Recent media reports claiming we are running out of IP addresses Some claim we ve already run out in some parts of the world But what are the facts? Is the IPv4 sky falling? Geoff Huston, chief scientist in the Internet area at Telstra, has studied the IPv4 consumption rates

20 Data Analysed Three views to make forward projections: The rate at which IPv4 number blocks are passed from IANA to the RIRs The rate at which RIRs undertake assignments of IPv4 address blocks to LIRs and end users The growth of the number of announced addresses in the BGP routing table

21 Address Management Process IETF IANA RIR ISP RIR ISP Allocation Announcement Delegation Allocation IANA BGP

22 IANA Allocations Current IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8% Multicast, 16, 6% IANA Allocated, 130.9, 51% IANA Pool, 89, 35%

23 IANA Allocations Historical Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03

24 RIR Allocations Current Status IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8% Multicast, 16, 6% Allocated Assigned, 116.9, 46% IANA Pool, 89, 35% RIR Pool, 14, 5%

25 RIR Allocations Historical RIR Assigned IPv4 /8 Address Blocks Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03

26 BGP Routing Table Current Advertised, 74.5, 29% IETF Reserved, 20.1, 8% Multicast, 16, 6% IANA Pool, 89, 35% Assigned, 42.4, 17% RIR Pool, 14, 5%

27 BGP Routing Table - AS1221

28 Another look at that BGP data Linear Squares Best Fit Nov-99 Feb-00 May-00 Aug-00 Nov-00 Feb-01 May-01 Aug-01 Nov-01 Feb-02 May-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 Feb-03 May-03 Aug-03

29 Combined Data (3 years) IANA RIR BGP Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03

30 Projection linear IANA RIR BGP Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15 Jan-20 Jan-25 Jan-30 Jan-35 Jan-40 Jan-45

31 Projection exponential IANA RIR BGP Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 Jan-24 Jan-26 Jan-28

32 Observations Extrapolation of current allocation practices and BGP-based demand model Derived from data Considering IANA/RIR unallocated pool Total address space including allocated but unannounced Assuming exponential growth Address space lasts until 2025, or up to 2029 Assuming linear growth Address space lasts until

33 Issues This is just a model - reality will be different! Will the BGP routing table continue to reflect allocation rates? Is the model of the unadvertised pools and RIR holding pools appropriate? Externalities What are the underlying growth drivers (applications) and how are these best modeled? What forms of disruptive events would alter this model, and to what extent? Should address management policies change as a result of these results?

34 Questions?

35 Policy Development in the Asia Pacific The APNIC Community & the Policy Development Process

36 What is the APNIC community? Global Internet Community APNIC Internet Community APAN APNIC Members PITA IETF ISP Associations Individuals ISOC

37 Policy Development Industry self-regulatory processes Open to all interested parties Facilitated by RIR staff and volunteers Policy implementation RIR processes ISPs and other affected parties

38 Participation in policy processes Why should I bother? Responsibility as an APNIC member To be aware of the current policies for managing address space allocated to you Business reasons Policies affect your business operating environment and are constantly changing Ensure your needs are met Educational Learn and share experiences Stay abreast with best practices in the Internet

39 Policy development cycle Need OPEN Anyone can participate Evaluate Discuss BOTTOM UP TRANSPARENT Implement Internet community proposes and approves policy Consensus All decisions & policies documented & freely available to anyone

40 Elements of the process WGs: semi formal, volunteer group tasked by a SIG to work on a particular project until completed eg. Broadband Working Groups BOFs: Informal meetings to exchange ideas eg. CA BOF, Network Abuse BOF, Training Need to hold at least one to form new SIG Member Meeting Open Policy Processes Birds of a Feather MM: forum specific to APNIC business eg. fee structure, election of executive council & endorsement of policy decisions Special Interest Groups SIGs: Formal groups which discuss broad areas of policy relevant to the APNIC internet community

41 Policy development in practice New policy or amendment proposed Posted to SIG ML for discussion Face to face discussions in public open forum (SIGs) Consensus? YES Report of consensus in SIG to MM NO Endorsement by MM? YES Implementation 3 months NO

42 How to make your voice heard Contribute on the public mailing lists Attend meetings Or send a representative Gather input at forums Give feedback Training or seminar events

43 Come to the APNIC meeting! Next meeting in conjunction with APRICOT 2004 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, February 2004 Participate in policy development Attend workshops, tutorials & presentations Exchange knowledge and information with peers Stay abreast with developments in the Internet View multicast online Provide your input in matters important to you

44 Questions?

45 Thanks