Context Investment decisions should be based on the best available evidence Large capital expenditure both for investment and operation of national in

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1 Next Generation Infrastructure Modelling for Next Generation Infrastructure Decision Support Dr. Will Usher, Prof. Jim Hall Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

2 Context Investment decisions should be based on the best available evidence Large capital expenditure both for investment and operation of national infrastructure UK: 500bn infrastructure projects planned to 2030 Near term decision making under uncertainty demographic changes and migration UK population growth: ~75 million by 2050 economic growth and trade changing geopolitical landscape technological change autonomous vehicles AI, robots a different workforce climate and extreme events increased exposure to flooding adaptation strategies

3 Breaking down silos In isolation, infrastructure systems have been studied intensely e.g. energy, transport Recently, integrated whole-system and nexus studies have been made Comparing individual models is complicated by the range of different assumptions and scenarios Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium ( ) developed the National Infrastructure Assessment approach and the NISMOD v1.0 model integrated national-scale models of transport, energy, water and solid waste all models run under same assumptions and scenarios risk and vulnerability, cascading failure of infrastructure systems used to support work National Infrastructure Commission

4 New challenges High spatial and temporal scales distributed consumption and production of infrastructure services prosumers (sale of electricity from residential solar PV) from predict-and-provide to holistic and integrated approaches Interconnectedness and interdependencies Adoption of digital, enabling smart systems, new services and platforms Electricity as a key decarbonisation vector Decision making at local, regional, national and global scales influence on technological change (Gigafactory) industrial strategy (dumping of steel) changing geopolitical landscape as a result of transition (oil states) national implementation consistent with Paris Accord

5 New opportunities nl y New sources of primary and secondary data e.g. smart meter data, building models and BIM, satellite imagery, sensor data New computational facility DAFNI D ra ft O massive computation a secure national hub for infrastructure data

6 Developing NISMOD v2.0 Under MISTRAL, we are developing a new National Infrastructure System Model Highly spatial and temporally resolved models of transport energy supply & demand water supply & treatment flood defence digital communications solid waste Scenarios demographic and population change climate change economic growth

7 Developing NISMOD v2.0 Simulation models of infrastructure A database of networks, model parameters Scenarios of uncertain futures Model integration framework smif A planning system Narratives of technological change and governance A user interface for visualisation and analysis of results Commitment to: open-source code and models open-data where possible

8 Summary Under the MISTRAL project, NISMOD v2.0 will provide the UK with a high-resolution integrated infrastructure modelling capability to meet the evidentiary challenges of a country under technological, societal and economic transition Collating high resolution infrastructure data Expert modelling, data and cross-discipline teams spread across the ITRC consortium, with a central integrating hub in Oxford

9 Any Questions? Other ITRC Presentations at ISNGI SWIMS - Dr Keiron Roberts NISMOD-Int Tom Russell Transport model - Dr Milan Lovric NISMOD v1.0 Dr Matt Ives NISMOD-DB++ - Prof Stuart Barr Governance and Decisions - Dr Katherine Lovell Risk & Vulnerability - Maria Pregnolato Strategic direction Prof Jim Hall