National Perspectives on Communications Resilience among LLDCs

Transcription

1 National Perspectives on Communications Resilience among LLDCs Abu Saeed Khan UN ESCAP Workshop on knowledge and policy gaps in disaster risk reduction and development planning Bangkok, Thailand March 8-9, 2016

2 Ericsson Mobility Report November 2015

3 Is Asia Pacific ready for 2021? Spectrum is critical for GSM/EDGE. Internet is additionally critical for WCDMA/HSPA, LTE/5G. International connectivity is the lifeline of IP Transit, Cloud, CDN, Data Centers, Peering etc. Carriers are centralized in SG and HK. IP Transit is disproportionately expensive in the region. Major regulatory roadblocks in Asia: Spectrum lacks technology-neutrality (Demand-side problem). International connectivity only through submarine cables (Supply-side problem). No carrier-neutral submarine cable, cable landing stations, gateways, metro and domestic TX networks (Broadband supply chain problem).

4 ITU s Measuring the Information Society Report 2015 (Selected Asian economies) 90.6% 87.9% 85.5% 84.6% 82.0% 74.6% 67.5% 49.3% Individual Internet users (Fixed & Mobile 2014) 48.3% 37.9% 34.9% 25.8% 18.0% 17.1% 3,345 International bandwidth per Internet user (Kbps, 2014) 669X X

5 Akamai state of the Internet Q Broadband inequality across Asia Pacific Average speed (Mbps) >4 Mbps % 93% 92% 90% 88% 87% 87% % 72% % 33% 31% % 14% 10% 68% >10 Mbps 45.0% >15 Mbps 59% 54% 51% 36.0% 32.0% 27.0% 29% 22% 18% 18% 4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.9%0.9% 0.6% 13.0% 8.2% 7.4% 5.8% 0.9%0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%0.3% 0.1%

6 Tale of two continents: Akamai reveals the qualitative difference Top 15 Asian markets average speed (Mbps) in Q South Korea Hong Kong Japan Singapore Taiwan New Zealand Top 15 European markets average speed (Mbps) in Q Thailand Australia Sri Lanka Malaysia China Vietnam Indonesia Philippines India Landlocked countries. No direct access to submarine cables

7 Asia vs. Europe: Median monthly IP Transit prices per Mbps, 10 GigE, Q Source: TeleGeography. 10 GigE = 10,000 Mbps. Prices (US$) excluding local access and installation fees. $0.92 $0.96 $0.97 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.04 $1.12 $1.12 $1.20 $1.25 $1.40 $4.10 $4.41 $5.00 $6.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 $11.00 $14.50

8 Highest between South and SE Asia: Median 10 Gbps Monthly Lease Prices, 2015 Source: TeleGeography Global Bandwidth & IP Pricing Trends, Brianna Boudreau, January 2016.

9 Infrastructure dictates bandwidth price Terrestrial link Submarine cable..price levels vary by region and between terrestrial and subsea deployments. Source: TeleGeography. 100G: are the potential savings worth the investment? 4 Jun 2015 Upgrades to 100Gbps equipment on terrestrial networks have been rapid in recent years as bandwidth demand has increased, and European and intra-us terrestrial routes exhibit the lowest 100Gbps prices globally.

10 Terrestrial cross-border links: Normal in Europe, not in Asia. Infrastructure is all about right-of-way

11 World s most resilient right-of-way Connecting 32 countries with EU through 143,000 km of standardized roadways.

12 Asian Highway has linked 32 countries. A cross-border meshed network is to be built.

13 International Internet Bandwidth (Mbps) by Country (Asia Pacific LLDCs) Kazakhstan 786 1,474 3,752 11,123 36,967 74, , , , ,795 Armenia ,354 10,574 29,858 39,366 79, ,000 Mongolia ,169 3,621 6,372 11,180 17,280 26,085 37,650 53,825 Nepal ,085 1,775 4,865 7,960 12,300 19,100 26,750 Uzbekistan ,085 1,332 3,822 6,997 10,729 13,062 19,906 Laos ,616 2,682 4,190 6,522 9,370 13,400 Kyrgyzstan ,019 1,335 2,005 4,662 5,904 7,923 10,725 Bhutan ,455 5,765 Tajikistan ,174 3,104 4,815 6,526 Turkmenistan ,242 2,019 Source: Global Internet Geography, TeleGeography. Figures represent Internet bandwidth at international borders. Data as of mid-year. Data of Afghanistan is not available.

14 International Internet Bandwidth (Mbps) Kazakhstan Armenia by Country (Asia Pacific LLDCs) 626,795 Mongolia Nepal Uzbekistan Laos Kyrgyzstan Bhutan Tajikistan Turkmenistan 135,000 53, Source: Global Internet Geography, TeleGeography. Figures represent Internet bandwidth at international borders. Data as of mid-year.

15 Armenia calling: July 17, 2008 The license will grant the right to own and operate a telecommunications network in the territory of the Republic of Armenia, and provide any type of telecommunications services including GSM services, 3G and any other voice or data services, subject to the applicable laws and regulations. Any local or foreign company may participate in the tender, subject to pre-qualification requirements.

16 Meteoric rise of Armenia, Mongolia slips, Nepal beats Uzbekistan. Armenia Mongolia 135,000 Nepal Uzbekistan Laos Kyrgyzstan 79,500 Bhutan Tajikistan Turkmenistan 39,366 53,825 26,750 19,

17 Incumbent overpowers UZ regulator December 10, 2004: Uzbekenergo (Power grid) and Uzbekistan Railway were granted licenses for five years to provide long distance telecommunication services ensuring access to its networks for other operators and providers on equal terms. November 4, 2009: Both the licenses were extended for further five years (i.e., until December 12, 2014). State-owned Uzbek Telecom is yet to allow either of the license to be functional!

18 Laos outpace Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan beats Bhutan, Turkmenistan is trailing. Laos 13,400 Kyrgyzstan 10,725 Bhutan Tajikistan Turkmenistan 6,526 5,765 2,

19 Landlocked, double landlocked and highly active seismic zone.

20 Major earthquakes in Central Asia Kazakhstan: January 3, 1911, Chon-Kemin earthquake (M7.8) Turkmenistan: October 5, 1948, Ashgabat earthquake, (M7.3) Tajikistan: July 10, 1949, Khait earthquake (M7.5) Uzbekistan: April 26, 1966, Tashkent earthquake (M7.5) Armenia: December 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake (M6.8) Kyrgyzstan: August 19, 1992, Suusamyr earthquake (M7.3) Tajikistan: December 7, 2015, Murghob earthquake (M7.2)

21 Earthquake impacts mobile networks RAN installations along with PDH and SDH microwave backhauls are collapsed. Nationwide and metro OFC transmission networks are either fully or partially damaged. Distribution and transmission systems of power is either fully or partially damaged. Compromised: Storage and supply facilities of gasoline. Maintenance and operational staffs are victims too!

22 Invaluable lessons from China April 20, YA'AN, China. The 6.6- magnitude quake hit a remote mountainous area of southwestern Sichuan province at 8:02 a.m.

23 Resulted from a comprehensive plan Within six hours of the quake, Internet and phone connections were partially restored in Baoxing county. By late afternoon China s big three carriers said phone calls, text messaging and roaming services would be free in quake-stricken areas. They advised people to use text messaging instead of making calls, as it requires less bandwidth. Zhang Bin, a Chinese People's Liberation Army soldier, carries a 60-year-old survivor as he runs down a stretch of the road to Lingguan township which was recently cleared of debris from landslides caused by Saturday's earthquake, in Baoxing county in Ya'an, Sichuan province April 22, REUTERS/Jason Lee

24 Weibo: An 'Encouraging step forward' With more than 500 million users, Weibo - the Internet equivalent of Twitter. Information about how people could themselves rescue friends and neighbors hit by the quake was also quickly spread through forums like Weibo. There were other ideas about what should be done; tolls for highways to the affected areas should be suspended and clinics should treat the injured for free and public buildings should, where necessary, be opened up for the needy. Where these appeals were not heeded, those involved were immediately pilloried via Weibo. Users are by and large agreed that the influence of social networks has grown significantly since the 2008 quake. As one Weibo user wrote: "Is this not an encouraging step forward?"

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30 Nepal Telecom TX rides on power grid

31 China s 22,300 km fiber follows AH Source: Ruyu Zhao, Transport Planning and Research Institute, MOC, China. Nepal should seriously consider to use it.

32 TAPI gas pipeline Energy comes to South Asia and Internet goes to Central Asia

33 New kids on the block. Who s next? Google: Unity (2010), SJC (2013), FASTER (2016)*, COTA (2016). Microsoft: Hibernia Express (2015), AEConnect (2015), NCP (2015), Seabras-1 (2016). Facebook: APG (2015). *Equinix

34 Points to ponder Introduce nationwide single toll-free Emergency number, as 911 is in the USA. ESCAP should persuade the member states to adopt a common Emergency number in the national numbering plan across the region. Replace microwave backhaul with FTTH and co-locate Wi-Fi at mobile access points in the metro area. Transmission, not access, antenna is harmful to health. Maximize active and passive infrastructure sharing through open access. Enforce structural separation, if required. Encourage the usage of renewable energy. Diversify national and international backhaul through all possible optical fiber networks. OPGW in the power grid, SCADA optical fiber along the gas pipelines and fiber along the railway tracks should be considered as the national telecoms assets.