Asia Pacific Information Superhighway (AP IS): New Avenue to Revenue. Abu Saeed Khan Senior Policy Fellow LIRNEasia

Transcription

1 Asia Pacific Information Superhighway (AP IS): New Avenue to Revenue Abu Saeed Khan Senior Policy Fellow ESCAP, Bangkok December 23, 2014

2 Technology shapes policy and development (1997) Oslo 2006

3 Ubiquitous Universal Access Effective Regulation License Spectrum Interconnection Internet Bandwidth Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator n Universal Service Ubiquitous voice/data Ubiquitous broadband

4 Reduce poverty by 50% Brazil did it in 2008!

5 PPP in MDG#8 In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications.

6 PPP in MDG#8 In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications.

7 Asian Highway can deliver MDG#8 A network of 141,000 km of standardized roadways crisscrossing 32 countries connecting Asia with Europe. A total of US$26 billion has already been invested in the improvement and upgrades. However, there is still a shortfall of US$18 billion. More details in ESCAP s website

8 Q: Why Asian Highway struggles for fund? A: Telecoms has not been considered.

9 Rich is paying less while poor pays more. Who is to be blamed for colonizing Internet? Source: Global Internet Geography 2014,TeleGeography.

10 Median Asian IP Transit Prices per Mbps, 10 Gigabit Ethernet, Q Q CAGR East Asia & China Hong Kong $12.00 $8.20 $7.00 $ % -21% Seoul $13.50 $15.00 $13.50 $ % -4% Singapore $17.00 $8.60 $7.00 $ % -28% Taipei $14.33 $17.00 $15.55 $ % -6% Tokyo $13.50 $9.00 $9.00 $ % -16% South Asia & Oceania Jakarta $23.00 $22.00 $13.00 $ % -19% Kuala Lumpur $20.67 $11.00 $12.45 $ % -27% Mumbai $24.00 $24.00 $19.00 $ % -7% Sydney $60.00 $25.00 $21.00 $ % -32% Source: Global Internet Geography 2014,TeleGeography.

11 Bandwidth forecast: Shift towards Europe Middle East to Europe has grown from 51% (2003) to 85% (2013). North Africa to Europe has grown from 61% (2003) to 94% (2013). 72% of bandwidth connected to Sub Saharan Africa, up from 39% a decade ago. South Asia to Europe has grown from less than 6% (2003) to over 46% (2013). We have two major concerns Source: Ciena and TeleGeography

12 China goes to Europe via Russia

13 ME Europe gets terrestrial Jeddah Amman Damascus Istanbul (JADI) Regional Cable Network (RCN) Bypass Egypt Dodge the pirates

14 Iran and Oman also detour Europe Persia Express Gateway EPEG is now the Internet s fastest path between the Gulf and Europe, shaving at least ten percent off the best submarine cable round trip time from Dubai to Frankfurt. Jim Cowie, Renesys. 26 Sep, APAC to Europe via Middle East?

15 1) 2008: Reliance and China Mobile terrestrial link. 2) 2009: Tata and China Mobile terrestrial link. 3) 2010: Bharti and China Mobile terrestrial link.

16 Solution: Fiber along the Asian Highway Russia, India, China, Turkey, Central Asia, SAARC, ASEAN+2

17 Asia Pacific Information Superhighway (AP IS) for Intra Asian and Eurasian broadband. Asian Highway has already linked the borders. A fully meshed terrestrial AP IS is waiting.

18 Targets of AP IS: Open access 1) Diversity and Redundancy to all submarine cables linking Asia with Europe and the USA via Japan through a Terrestrial Consortium. 2) Migrate SEA ME WE 3 & SEA ME WE 4 from offshore to on shore. Also let all private carriers to migrate. 3) No regulatory disruption. Only the licensed carriers will access LION.

19 Advantages of AP IS Presumed unfriendly countries are already interlinked. Submarine : SEA ME WE 3 and SEA ME WE 4. Terrestrial: Sino Indian links (Reliance/Tata/Bharti + China Mobile). Highly resilient due to being meshed. Rerouting the traffic means zero downtime. Installation and maintenance crew/materials available everywhere. Creates more opportunities for submarine cables. Investments in transpacific rather than intra Asia. Lower latency and higher SLA at lesser cost for international bandwidth. Open access guaranteed

20 Impacts of AP IS Internet in Asia will be similar to or cheaper than the EU. Mobile broadband (HSPA/LTE) will grow like 2G voice. Smart devices and Wi Fi offload are fast accelerating the consumption of data. Investments in broadband will increase. There will be higher ROI in FTTx. More international and domestic PoPs/access nodes will emerge. Landlocked countries will have bandwidth at equal cost. Sub regional telecoms initiatives have not delivered that. Pacific islands will enjoy reduced bandwidth cost in the mainland. International Gateway (IGW) reforms will be accelerated. Usage of submarine cables purchased capacity will be maximized. Carriers will commit longer contracts. National broadband backbones will require lesser subsidies.

21 AP IS and Asian Highway Turn Asian Highway into Asian Information Highway ESCAP remains the common proponent. Millennium Development Goals. Local employment generation. Public Private Partnership. Boosting local businesses. Enabling sectoral reforms. Respective country's road authorities will own their portion of fiber network. May require to obtain Infrastructure Provider license for regulatory compliance. Huge savings from the non payment of ROW. Access will be given to the International Gateway operators for regulatory compliance. Adjusted Margin will be paid to each country proportionately (Regular contribution to the road maintenance budget).

22 November 5, 2013: Tiger Woods in Istanbul to hit 10 golf balls from Asia to Europe.

23 Professor Charles K Kao ( 高 ), Father of Optical Fiber, Nobel Laureate in Physics (2009) Sand from centuries past; Send future voices fast.

24 Next steps: Inclusive engagement Route survey of the entire Asian Highway. Design, budget and implementation schedule. Funding of the project.