Technical Capabilities of WMO and its Partners in Support of GFCS Implementation: the Climate Services Information System

Transcription

1 Technical Capabilities of WMO and its Partners in Support of GFCS Implementation: the Climate Services Information System Simon Mason Geneva, Switzerland, 29 September 01 October 2014

2 Important gaps at the national level Sector-specific services, including tailored information. Decision support. Locally-specific information. Information to bridge current timescale gaps (decadal, and extended-range weather forecasts, plus intra-seasonal information) 2

3 Demand for climate services Increasing expectations for climate services domestic demand regional and global expectations Minimal increase in capacity to provide climate services How can NMHSs provide climate services while minimizing additional workloads? 3

4 What is a Climate Services Toolkit? A set of bespoke software products (including data portals, data management systems, analysis and prediction packages), and accompanying training modules, that are specifically designed to support the generation and use of climate information and prediction products that meet user needs. I don t like definitions Mark Knopfler 4

5 Purpose Facilitate the production, communication, and application of climate information products. Avoid the possibility of a proliferation of inconsistent, and possibly sub-standard, tools by implementing a set of standards, and establishing a certification process for new tools. Efficiency is doing things right Effectiveness is doing the right things Peter Drucker 5

6 Scope Data management tools including: Data portal for access to and analysis of observations and GCM outputs Database management tool for quality control and simple manipulation of data Climate analysis tool for diagnostic analyses 6

7 Scope example data portals JMA ClimatView DWD Climate Data Centre and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre 7

8 Scope example data portals IRI Data Library NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit 8

9 Scope Climate monitoring tools for calculation of anomalies, percentiles, return periods. NOAA CPC Climate Monitoring Tool IRI Maprooms 9

10 Scope Forecasting, downscaling and verification tools - for statistical and MOS models, and with flexibility to interface to impacts models. APCC Clik BoM SCOPIC 10

11 Scope example downscaling tools IRI Climate Predictability Tool Met Office PRECIS 11

12 Flexible forecasts What is the probability of getting more than 90 mm? Will we get more rain than last year? Will it be drier than 2011? What are the chances of a 1-in-20 year drought? CPT provides NMSs with the capability to produce this type of information 12

13 Advantages Promotes the implementation of good practices in all countries. A toolkit would enable end-users to gain access to high-quality climate information, and would provide resource-poor service providers with access to state-ofthe-science datasets and analytical procedures. Increases efficiency in climate service provision. Simplifies the learning curve required to manage and analyse data, and reduces the need for extensive capacity building. 13

14 Advantages Promotes standardization of methods of producing and presenting climate information products within (and, to the extent that is possible, across) regions. Standardization is helpful for a number of reasons: To increase the consistency of information in neighbouring areas, thus facilitating the building of consensus for generating regional products, and reducing the chances of confusing end users through provision of conflicting information; To facilitate interaction and shared learning between information providers through the development of a common set of skills. 14

15 Technology + user-interface June 2014 update: drought imminent over Martinique, St. Vincent, Barbados, Curaçao, parts of Guianas (below). Drought imminent in parts of Southern Caribbean 15 15

16 Technology + research?? 16

17 Technology and data ENACTS Enhancing NAtional ClimaTe Services 17

18 Conclusions Through the Climate Services Toolkit, the CSIS can, in principle, address some of the important constraints to effective climate service development. But solutions require close collaboration amongst all the pillars: OBS: to provide the raw data RMP: to identify ways of addressing sector specific climaterelated problems. UIP: to keep the focus on that sector specific problem, rather than on the climate problem per se CD: to enable operationalization in-country 18