The Engineering Vulnerability Assessment Protocol - principles and application David Lapp, P.Eng. Manager, Professional Practice Engineers Canada

Transcription

1 The Engineering Vulnerability Assessment Protocol - principles and application David Lapp, P.Eng. Manager, Professional Practice Engineers Canada City of Toronto Briefing on Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee November 25, 2008

2 Engineering Vulnerability to Climate Change The shortfall in the ability of public infrastructure to absorb the negative effects, and benefit from the positive effects, of changes in the climate conditions used to design and operate infrastructure.

3 Protocol Principles The Protocol is a step by step risk assessment process to assess impacts of climate change on infrastructure Goal: Assist infrastructure owners and operators to effectively incorporate climate change adaptation into design, development and decisionmaking

4 Infrastructure Component Performance Criteria Structural Serviceability Serviceability Functionality Operations & Maintenance Emergency Response Risks Insurance Considerations Policies and Procedures Economics Public Health & Safety Environmental Effects

5 Engineering Vulnerability Assessment Protocol Five steps Critical decisions required after qualitative assessment Quantification MAY be completed if qualitative analysis demonstrates the need Data quality and availability assessed throughout

6 A Five Step Process

7 Step 1- Define Baseline Infrastructure Details Design Load Site Setting Impact on local population Impact on other important infrastructure Climate Data Traditional design considerations Historic data

8 Step 1 - Define Baseline

9 Step 2 - Gather Data Key sub-units of the infrastructure Stats and data regarding climate change in the region Other projected changes that may affect infrastructure Infrastructure: Use Load Operation Etc.

10 Step 2 - Gather Data

11 Step 3 - Qualitative Assessment Prioritize important infrastructure and climate related information Link Data regarding key elements of the infrastructure; and Data regarding climate change. Professional judgement Multidisciplinary Need the right mix of professionals on the team Need to trust the insight of owners and operators

12 Step 3 - Qualitative Assessment Assess need for more detailed analysis Cost considerations Potential severity of impact on infrastructure Potential severity of impact on related infrastructure As appropriate draw conclusions and make recommendations The Protocol allows the user to proceed directly to Step 5 based on professional judgement, policy and other considerations

13 Step 3 - Qualitative Assessment

14 Step 4 - Quantitative Analysis Professional judgement Optional unless need dictates Requires very specific data Identifies data gaps May require additional iterations of earlier steps in the Protocol Quantifies vulnerability Establishes a value for adaptive capacity Identifies required increases in capacity

15 Step 4 - Quantitative Analysis

16 Step 5 - Recommendations A range of possible recommendations and conclusions Data gaps constitute vulnerability» Further research required Current or future lack of capacity» Remedial action» Management action Identified resiliency» No further action at this time

17 Step 5 - Recommendations

18 Applying the Protocol From a practitioner's perspective the Protocol works Requires application of professional judgement throughout Allows the user to identify who needs to be at the table Qualitative analysis (Step 3) is the most important step of the Protocol Allows user to make key management and cost control decisions It may be difficult to gather all of the data necessary for quantification (Step 4) Do Step 4 where necessary and cost-effective

19 Applying the Protocol A very powerful tool derived from standard risk management methodologies tailored to climate change vulnerability Should be familiar to most engineering professionals Lack of input data for Step 4 need not deter the user from making professionally-based judgments and expressing opinions leading to recommendations The protocol can be a useful tool in the hands of a qualified professional

20 When Resources are Limited Not every application of the Protocol has all an ideal set of resources Data Computer models Technical expertise This need not deter infrastructure owners from completing an assessment The Protocol identifies which questions to ask Does not dictate the method that practitioners should use to answer those questions

21 Resources are Always Limited There are usually gaps Models may not cover the region being assessed Meteorological data may not have been collected Operational records may not exist Staff turnover Experience gap

22 Filling the Gaps Engineering Vulnerability Assessment is a multidisciplinary activity Team structure is a critical element of filling the gaps Must have: Expertise in risk/vulnerability assessment Directly relevant engineering knowledge of the infrastructure Climatic and meteorological expertise relevant to the region Operational experience Hands-on management knowledge of the infrastructure Local knowledge

23 Conclusion Local knowledge, filtered through the expertise of the assessment team, can often compensate for data gaps and provide a basis for professional judgment of the vulnerability of the infrastructure.

24 Questions David Lapp, P.Eng. Manager, Professional Practice PIEVC Secretariat Engineers Canada Ottawa, Ontario CANADA (613) ext 240