A Method for Selecting Affordable System Concepts: A Case Application to Naval Ship Design
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1 A Method for Selecting Affordable System Concepts: A Case Application to Naval Ship Design Michael A. Schaffner, Adam M. Ross, and Donna H. Rhodes Massachusetts Institute of Technology March 21-22, 2014 Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 1
2 Motivation Massive cost overruns, schedule delays, failure to anticipate future requirements and ultimately unrealized capabilities (Cordesman and Frederiksen, 2006) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 2
3 Motivation Massive cost overruns, schedule delays, failure to anticipate future requirements and ultimately unrealized capabilities (Cordesman and Frederiksen, 2006) Weaknesses in initial program definition and costing (IDA, 2009) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 3
4 Motivation Massive cost overruns, schedule delays, failure to anticipate future requirements and ultimately unrealized capabilities (Cordesman and Frederiksen, 2006) Weaknesses in initial program definition and costing (IDA, 2009) Affordability mandated as a requirement at all milestone decision points of program development (Carter, 2010a, 2010b) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 4
5 Motivation Determining affordable solutions (Tuttle and Bobinis, 2012) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 5
6 Motivation Determining affordable solutions (Tuttle and Bobinis, 2012) Balancing performance, budget, and schedule for fixed requirements (Tuttle and Bobinis) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 6
7 Motivation Determining affordable solutions (Tuttle and Bobinis, 2012) Balancing performance, budget, and schedule for fixed requirements (Tuttle and Bobinis) Breakdown of Total Ownership Cost into constituent costs (Booz Allen Hamilton, 2011) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 7
8 Motivation Still, one of the key challenges identified in a review of the literature of recent years: Absence of mature metrics and systematic frameworks for comprehensive affordability analysis. Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 8
9 Motivation Still, one of the key challenges identified in a review of the literature of recent years: Absence of mature metrics and systematic frameworks for comprehensive affordability analysis. The problem that this research begins to address. Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 9
10 The Big Picture The Systems Engineering Context Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 10
11 A Better Big Picture The Systems Engineering Context To contribute to the design of affordable systems: 1) Bring knowledge forward to higher-leverage phase (i.e. conceptual development) 2) Reduce total amount of resources committed Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 11
12 Overview of the Case Application Design a Next-Generation Combat Ship (NGCS) that will support unmanned aircraft, smaller boats, and defense operations in littoral areas of interest. Coast Guard s Offshore Patrol Cutter (OPC) Navy s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 12
13 Overview of the Case Application This case derives primarily from three sources: Prior application of Responsive Systems Comparison (RSC) to Coast Guard s OPC (Schofield 2010) A variant of the MIT Math Model, used for Naval (LCS-like) frigate modeling and selection of feasible ship designs ( LCDR Matthew Frye, MIT SM 10 Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 13
14 Overview of the RSC-Based Method Adapted from RSC originally proposed in Ross et al (2009) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 14
15 Epoch & Era Constructs Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 15
16 Information Gathering: Processes 1 through 3 For the OPC, Schofield (2010) defines 3 stakeholders, each with separate value propositions. These are combined for the NGCS into the value proposition: Provide a new fleet of USN frigates for use in air and sea operations in open and coastal waters across the globe. Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 16
17 Information Gathering: Processes 1 through 3 Value statement decomposition into expense and utility attributes Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 17
18 Information Gathering: Processes 1 through 3 Value statement decomposition into expense and utility attributes Map each design variable s impact on each system attribute Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 18
19 Information Gathering: Processes 1 through 3 Value statement decomposition into expense and utility attributes Decomposed from existing system concepts Map each design variable s impact on each system attribute Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 19
20 Information Gathering: Processes 1 through 3 Value statement decomposition into expense and utility attributes Map each design variable s impact on each system attribute Epoch variable elicitation and definition Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 20
21 Information Gathering: Processes 1 through 3 Value statement decomposition into expense and utility attributes vs. Map each design variable s impact on each attribute Epoch variable elicitation and definition (e.g., VUAV = size of vertical take-off Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 21
22 Information Gathering: Processes 1 through 3 Value statement decomposition into expense and utility attributes Map each design variable s impact on each attribute Epoch variable elicitation and definition Map each epoch variable s impact on each system attribute Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 22
23 Information Gathering: Processes 1 through 3 Value statement decomposition into expense and utility attributes Map each design variable s impact on each attribute Epoch variable elicitation and definition Map each epoch variable s impact on each system attribute Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 23
24 Overview of the RSC-based Method Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 24
25 Overview of the RSC-based Method Affordability-related information generated early in the design method: 1) Identify design variables with high impact on expense attributes 2) Identify contextual variables of high impact on expense attributes Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 25
26 Overview of the RSC-based Method Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 26
27 Overview of the RSC-based Method MIT Math Model Value Model Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 27
28 Process 4: Design-Epoch Tradespace Evaluation Value functions in this case were constructed using utility theory: 1) for preferences over the utility attributes of the system, *Anchoring and loss aversion explain the bent curves (Kahneman and Tversky 1984) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 28
29 Process 4: Design-Epoch Tradespace Evaluation Value functions in this case were constructed using utility theory: 1) for preferences over the utility attributes of the system, Rolled up into a single Multi-Attribute Utility (MAU) function *Anchoring and loss aversion explain the bent curves (Kahneman and Tversky 1984) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 29
30 Process 4: Design-Epoch Tradespace Evaluation Value functions in this case were constructed using utility theory: 1) for preferences over the utility attributes of the system, and 2) for preferences over the expense attributes of the system. *Anchoring and loss aversion explain the bent curves (Kahneman and Tversky 1984) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 30
31 Process 4: Design-Epoch Tradespace Evaluation Value functions in this case were constructed using utility theory: 1) for preferences over the utility attributes of the system, and 2) for preferences over the expense attributes of the system. Rolled up into a single Multi-Attribute Expense (MAE) function *Anchoring and loss aversion explain the bent curves (Kahneman and Tversky 1984) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 31
32 Process 4: Design-Epoch Tradespace Evaluation Six representative designs evaluated in six epochs (of 108): Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 32
33 Process 4: Design-Epoch Tradespace Evaluation Six representative designs evaluated in six epochs (of 108): Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 33
34 Process 4: Design-Epoch Tradespace Evaluation Six representative designs evaluated in six epochs (of 108): Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 34
35 Overview of the RSC-based Method Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 35
36 Overview of the RSC-based Method Affordability-related information generated by Process 4: 1) Stakeholder preferences captured for various types of expenses 2) Expense levels of all designs in each epoch (set of context + needs) 3) Expense levels of all designs shown alongside stakeholder preference on performance attributes (i.e., MAE vs. MAU tradespaces) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 36
37 Overview of the RSC-based Method Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 37
38 Process 5: Single-Epoch Analyses Fuzzy Pareto Numbers (FPNs) in an epoch: Design 1 Design 2 Design 3 Design 4 Design 5 Design 6 FPN: 23 0 Infeasible Sojourner epoch: Range increase: 20% Ice Region Use: High FPN in epochs from Ross, Rhodes and Hastings (2009) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 38
39 Process 5: Single-Epoch Analyses Fuzzy Pareto Numbers (FPNs) in an epoch: Design 1 Design 2 Design 3 Design 4 Design 5 Design 6 FPN: 23 0 Infeasible FPN: -Measure of how far a design is from the Pareto front -Allows comparison of efficiency FPN in epochs from Ross, Rhodes and Hastings (2009) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 39
40 Process 6: Multi-Epoch Analysis Normalized Pareto Traces (NPTs) over all epochs (Ross, Rhodes and Hastings 2009) NPT Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 40
41 Process 6: Multi-Epoch Analysis Normalized Pareto Traces (NPTs) over all epochs (Ross, Rhodes and Hastings 2009) NPT NPT: -Percentage of time on Pareto front across all epochs considered. Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 41
42 Process 6: Multi-Epoch Analysis Normalized Pareto Traces (NPTs) over all epochs (Ross, Rhodes and Hastings 2009) enpt NPT enpt with $ budget (notional) enpt, with time budget (notional) 1 Changeability Metrics (Fitzgerald 2012) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 42
43 Process 6: Multi-Epoch Analysis Normalized Pareto Traces (NPTs) over all epochs (Ross, Rhodes and Hastings 2009) Changeability Metrics (Fitzgerald 2012) enpt NPT enpt with $ budget (notional) enpt, with time budget (notional) Max Lifecycle Cost (LCC) ($ mil) Max Expense Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 43
44 Process 6: Multi-Epoch Analysis Normalized Pareto Traces (NPTs) over all epochs (Ross, Rhodes and Hastings 2009) Changeability Metrics (Fitzgerald 2012) Max Expense enpt NPT enpt with $ budget (notional) enpt, with time budget (notional) Max Lifecycle Cost (LCC) ($ mil) Max Crew Size (# crewmen) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 44
45 Process 6: Multi-Epoch Analysis Normalized Pareto Traces (NPTs) over all epochs (Ross, Rhodes and Hastings 2009) Changeability Metrics (Fitzgerald 2012) Max Expense Expense Stability enpt NPT enpt with $ budget (notional) enpt, with time budget (notional) Max Lifecycle Cost (LCC) ($ mil) Max Crew Size (# crewmen) LCC Stability (St Dev in $ mil) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 45
46 Process 7: Era Creation An era is a time-ordered sequence of epochs Construction of an era can involve: Expert judgment on likely epochs and transitions Decision maker interest in particular developments Markov Chains (Epoch Syncopation Framework, Fulcoly et al., 2008) Other probabilistic methods Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 46
47 Process 7: Era Creation An era is a time-ordered sequence of epochs Construction of an era can involve: Expert judgment on likely epochs and transitions Decision maker interest in particular developments Markov Chains (Epoch Syncopation Framework, Fulcoly et al., 2008) Other probabilistic methods E.g., Past Era: (courtesy Andrew Long, 2010) Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 47
48 Process 8: Single-Era Analysis Net Present Value (NPV) for each design For monetary resources only NPV Ops Yr. 10 NPV Ops Yr. 9 NPV Ops Yr. 8 NPV Ops Yr. 7 NPV Ops Yr. 6 NPV Ops Yr. 5 NPV Ops Yr. 4 NPV Ops Yr. 3 NPV Ops Yr. 2 Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 48
49 Process 8: Single-Era Analysis Net Present Value (NPV) for each design For monetary resources only Max Expense For any resource (NPV for monetary resources) Max Ops Cost in Era #2 ($ mil / yr) NPV Ops Yr. 10 NPV Ops Yr. 9 NPV Ops Yr. 8 NPV Ops Yr. 7 NPV Ops Yr. 6 NPV Ops Yr. 5 NPV Ops Yr. 4 NPV Ops Yr. 3 NPV Ops Yr. 2 Max Ops Cost: Max Ops Cost (NPV): Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 49
50 Process 8: Single-Era Analysis Net Present Value (NPV) for each design For monetary resources only Max Expense For any resource (NPV for monetary resources) Expense Stability Max Ops Cost in Era #2 ($ mil / yr) NPV Ops Yr. 10 NPV Ops Yr. 9 NPV Ops Yr. 8 NPV Ops Yr. 7 NPV Ops Yr. 6 NPV Ops Yr. 5 NPV Ops Yr. 4 NPV Ops Yr. 3 NPV Ops Yr. 2 Max Ops Cost: Expense Stability ($ mil) Max Ops Cost (NPV): Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 50
51 Process 9: Multi-Era Analyses (Not completed for case study at this time.) Further/ongoing work includes: Compare alternate strategies for minimizing resource usage over lifecycle Establishing upper and lower bounds on resource usage throughout possible lifecycle developments Learn heuristics for change strategies of individual designs in given epochs Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 51
52 Overview of the RSC-based Method Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 52
53 Overview of the RSC-based Method Affordability-related information generated by Processes 5 through 9: 1) Pareto-Efficiency measures in all contexts 2) Maximum resource requirements across changing contexts 3) Resource requirement stability across changing contexts And easily scalable to large numbers of alternatives in many contexts. Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 53
54 Conclusion This research addresses: Lack of mature metrics and systematic frameworks in the design for affordability. Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 54
55 Conclusion This research addresses: Lack of mature metrics and systematic frameworks in the design for affordability. Knowledge brought forward: -Design 3 was removed from consideration due to unaffordability (lack of feasibility in several epochs). -Next-best designs in Max Expense and Expense Stability were 2, 4, and 5. Designs 2 and 4 were further investigated due to more stable value delivery. -Affordable designs both had: ft., Medium Weapons Packages Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 55
56 Conclusion This research addresses: Lack of mature metrics and systematic frameworks in the design for affordability. The research provides: An early-lifecycle design method and metrics for generating system knowledge directly related to affordability considerations while still in the conceptual development phase. Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 56
57 Acknowledgements The author would like to thank the Acquisition Research Program at the Naval Postgraduate School for funding this study. Also thanks to: Marcus Wu, Adam Ross, Donna Rhodes, and the rest of the SEAri team. Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 57
58 A METHOD FOR SELECTING AFFORDABLE SYSTEM CONCEPTS Michael A. Schaffner: Dr. Adam Ross: Dr. Donna Rhodes: Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 58
59 References Booz Allen Hamilton (2011). Why it s needed and VIRGINIA Case Study. Washington DC, May Carter, A. B. (2010a). Better buying power: Guidance for obtaining greater efficiency and productivity in defense spending [Memorandum]. Carter, A. B. (2010b). Better buying power: Mandate for restoring affordability and productivity in defense spending [Memorandum]. Cordesman, A.H. and Frederiksen, P.S., America s Uncertain Approach to Strategy and Force Planning. Working Draft Center submitted to Center for Strategic and International Studies, Fitzgerald, M.E., Ross, A.M., and D.H. Rhodes, "Assessing Uncertain Benefits: a Valuation Approach for Strategic Changeability (VASC)," INCOSE International Symposium 2012, Rome, Italy, July Fitzgerald, M.E., and A.M. Ross, Mitigating Contextual Uncertainties with Valuable Changeability Analysis in the Multi- Epoch Domain, IEEE Syscon 2012, Fulcoly, D.O., Ross, A.M., and Rhodes, D.H. (2012). Evaluating System Change Options and Timing using the Epoch Syncopation Framework. 10th Conference on Systems Engineering Research. St. Louis, MO. (MIT Math Model) Institute of Defense Analyses (IDA) (2009). The Major Causes of Cost Growth in Defense Acquisition. Volume I: Executive Summary. IDA Paper P-4531 Log: H , December Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk", Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: , Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, "Choices, Values, and Frames", American Psychologist 39 (4): , Ross, A.M., and Rhodes, D.H., "Using Natural Value-centric Time Scales for Conceptualizing System Timelines through Epoch-Era Analysis," INCOSE International Symposium 2008, Utrecht, the Netherlands, June Ross, A.M., McManus, H.L., Long, A., Richards, M.G., Rhodes, D.H., and Hastings, D.E., "Responsive Systems Comparison Method: Case Study in Assessing Future Designs in the Presence of Change," AIAA Space 2008, San Diego, CA, September Ross, A.M., McManus, H.L., Rhodes, D.H., Hastings, D.E., and Long, A.M., "Responsive Systems Comparison Method: Dynamic Insights into Designing a Satellite Radar System," AIAA Space 2009, Pasadena, CA, September Ross, A.M., Rhodes, D.H., and D.E. Hastings, "Using Pareto Trace to Determine System Passive Value Robustness," 3rd Annual IEEE Systems Conference, Vancouver, Canada, March Schofield, D.M., A Framework and Methodology for Enhancing Operational Requirements Development: United States Coast Guard Cutter Project Case Study, Master of Science in Engineering and Management, System Design and Management Program, MIT, June Tuttle,P. and Bobinis, J., Affordability Specification MORS Symposium: Affordability: How Do We Do It?, October Presented to the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER) 2014 Page 59
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