Status of Hazard and Risk Activities in GEM (OpenQuake, Modeller s Toolkit)

Transcription

1 Caribbean Regional Programme Workshop Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago, May 2 nd 2011 Status of Hazard and Risk Activities in GEM (OpenQuake, Modeller s Toolkit) Helen Crowley Marco Pagani Executive Committee GEM Foundation Executive Committee GEM Foundation

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE Outline - OpenGEM and OpenQuake - OpenQuake: concept, development schema, general properties - Some (brief) information about the OpenGEM and the Modellers Toolkit

3 OPENGEM &

4 What s OpenQuake? OpenQuake (OQ - is an open source software application written in Python and Java that allows users to compute seismic hazard, seismic risk (exposure/vulnerability) and socio-economic impact of earthquakes on a global scale. - The hazard component of OQ largely relies on OpenSHA and is currently developed in collaboration with the OpenSHA team - At the present time OQ is distributed as a development release (0.3). It contains some functionalities and is still not ready for the final user - Version 0.4 (stable) with additional functionalities will be released in June 2011.

5 Main/distinctive properties An Open-Source community effort - Join the efforts! Extensively tested - At a class/module level rg/job/openquake/ - With smoke tests e.g. PEER Test, Tests on the risk component (currently only some PEER tests are implemented) Documented - rg/docs/ Transparency - Favor participation to the development of the scientific and technical communities - Largely used/adopted - State-of-the-art The Code is publicly accessible on a public repository

6 INTRODUCTION Main/distinctive properties An Open-Source community effort - Join the efforts! Extensively tested - At a class/module level rg/job/openquake/ - With smoke tests e.g. PEER Test, Tests on the risk component (currently only some PEER tests are implemented) Documented - rg/docs/ -

7 INTRODUCTION Main/distinctive properties An Open-Source community effort - Join the efforts! Extensively tested - At a class/module level rg/job/openquake/ - With smoke tests e.g. PEER Test, Tests on the risk component (currently only some PEER tests are implemented) Documented - rg/docs/ -

8 DEVELOPMENT Our standards We follow an agile software development methodology: it s iterative and incremental - The science component is the customer: defines requirements and prioritization of new features development - Scrum every day - Sprint planning every three weeks - Mid term development through Blue Prints

9 DEVELOPMENT

10 DEVELOPMENT Our standards: We follow an agile software development methodology: it s iterative and incremental - The science component is the customer: defines requirements and prioritization of new features development - Scrum every day - Sprint planning every three weeks - Mid term development through Blue Prints Test-driven development: - First write a failing automated test case controlling a desired new class or function, - Then write code to pass that test - [optional] refactors the new code to acceptable standards Source code available on-line: Github repository

11 DEVELOPMENT Code available on-line

12 What can I calculate with today?

13 Hazard curves Curves that give the probability of exceedance of a certain intensity measure level, within a given time span.

14 Hazard maps Distribution of the expected ground motion for a certain probability of exceedance with a given time span.

15 Stochastic event sets and ground motion fields Set of events representing possible seismicity histories generated by the seismic sources contained in a model and their respective shaking field

16 Ground motion fields for single events Distribution of the ground motion in a region for a single earthquake

17 Deterministic scenario losses calculator A calculator capable of computing the economic and human losses for a single earthquake scenario

18 Loss curves Curves that give the probability of exceedance of a certain loss, within a given time span.

19 Loss maps Distribution of the expected losses for a certain probability of exceedance with a given time span

20 What will I calculate with in the (near) future?

21 Seismic Hazard disaggregation Disaggregation provides the contributions to the hazard of discrete combinations of basic parameters considered in the calculations (e.g. magnitude, rupture-site distance)

22 Uniform hazard spectra Spectra where each ordinate has the same probability of being exceeded in a given investigation time

23 Disaggregation of losses Disaggregation provides the contributions to the losses of discrete combinations of basic parameters considered in the calculations (e.g. magnitude, rupture-site distance)

24 Average exceedance annual loss (dollars) OpenQuake: Benefit-Cost Calculator EAL-C EAL-R The Benefit-Cost Calculator will allow users to ascertain whether retrofitting the building stock is economically beneficial

25

26 Where will I do calculations with in the future?

27 WHERE? On your own laptop On your small cluster On clouds accessible through the OpenGEM portal

28 IT OQ: System architecture Messaging system Asynchronous task queue/job queue

29 SCIENCE OpenQuake concept - The scientific components of OQ are designed as a set of calculators, each one performing a specific task; this design confers to the engine modularity and flexibility - OQ is based on a well defined XML data exchange format (NRML) that currently encompasses all the data types necessary to complete a calculation task (i.e. input and output information as well as intermediate results)

30 Schematic

31 MODELLERS TOOLKIT (MTK) Introduction - The MTK is a suite of tools for the preparation of hazard and risk input models - It s part of the OpenGEM platform - It s Web based - For the time being, the development is focused on the hazard part. Later this year we ll start working on risk as well - A first alpha implementation with very basic functionalities will be presented in June

32 MODELLERS TOOLKIT Hazard: model preparation and calculation The preparation of the PSHA Input Model is completed inside the Modellers Toolkit. A PSHA Input Model consists of: - One Seismic Sources System - One GMPEs System - Calculations in OQ