Technology Strategy

Transcription

1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technology Strategy Paper #1 2/23/2008 0

2 ULTRA-MOBILE PERSONAL COMPUTER (UMPC) Technology and Domain: UMPC technology is both important and interesting because these electronic systems address the future of the personal computing and, to some extent, smart phone domains. Also, the growing popularity around UMPC requirements grows will serve as a catalyst for innovative technologies within both domains. Some new technologies will be used with the UMPC system and others will be used by competitive systems to improve performance. For example, the UMPC will drive a new generation of low-power x86 processors, while inviting competition from other processor architectures. 1 The extensive consumer use of laptops and handheld devices, such as PDAs and smart phones, has continued to rise over time reaching phenomenal levels. However, as more people become users of these products, the needs for overcoming the computing limitations of handheld devices and the mobility constraints of personal computers (PCs) will continue to grow greater. Imagine that you could easily carry your PC anywhere you go. It would be the size of a paperback book, weigh less than two pounds and fit in your purse or carry-on luggage with ease. You could take your music, photographs, videos, games and home and/or work files everywhere you go. You could keep in touch anywhere you can get INTERNET access via WIFI and/or 3G WAN based wireless networks. , web searches, instant messaging, FACEBOOK updates, Skype use all can be accomplished while travelling on the city bus. UMPC systems are important and interesting because they provide PC versatility in an ultra mobile package that, given [their] wireless capabilities, can deliver information anytime and anywhere without the compromises that one must deal with in other hand held mobile devices such as cell phones and smart phones. 2 Parameters, Trade-offs, Performance Envelope: As mentioned above, the UMPC is essentially a PC that fits in the palms of your hands. It possesses all of the functionality of a typical PC and more (i.e. tablet / touch-screen). UMPC key parameters are similar to those of a typical PC, ranging from cost to display size. Since the UMPC is aimed at filling the need between the minimal functionality of a PDA and portability of a laptop, Figure 1 provides a comparison among these three technological systems using the key parameters associated with the UMPC. 1 April 26, March 7,

3 The color red signifies that the parameter needs substantial improvement to be competitive with the other systems. Green signifies that the parameter is competitive and, in the eyes of consumers, good enough. Figure 1 From Figure 1, two significant generalizations can be made. First, the UMPC does provide more functionality than a PDA. Second, with its paperback book dimensions and less than two pound weight, the UMPC fills the portability need over a laptop PC. Figure 1 also shows that the UMPC is not a one size fits all solution; trade-offs inherently exist. For example, there is a clear trade-off between the UMPC s cost and keyboard size versus a laptop s portability. Some believe that this trade-off of cost versus portability is (and will be) limiting UMPC market share. The cost of these devices [UMPCs], which hover between $1500 and $2000, clearly meant that they would continue to be high end business tools and had a minimal chance, if any, to gain a broader following in areas like education, mainstream business 2

4 and even upper end consumer markets. 3 The size of the QWERTY keyboard, approximately 6 inches in length by 3 inches wide, makes two-hand typing difficult and thumb-typing awkward due to increased separation. In addition, not many people will attempt to write a full document using such a small keyboard. The parameters of memory, storage and display size also reflect inherent trade-offs where the UMPC technology is better than that of a PDA, but not a laptop. The UMPC RAM hovers around 2 gigabytes versus laptops with 3 gigabytes. Although it is larger than a PDA, the UMPC display is typically 7 inches and cannot compare to a laptop. Hard-disk capacity for the UMPC can be as high as 60 gigabytes; much less than the storage capability of a laptop. However, if portability is the driving parameter, trade-offs such as memory, storage, and keyboard and display size may be mitigated by use of external devices when at home (i.e. an external hard-disk or monitor). These key parameters and trade-offs associated with them define the UMPC technology performance envelope. With the exception of cost, the UMPC has increased functionality and performance over a PDA. When compared to the laptop, the UMPC s performance envelope is constrained by memory, storage, and keyboard and display size. In practical terms, the performance envelope for the UMPC falls short on ability to conduct computer work that would take a long time (i.e. typing a lengthy paper) and play high-end video games. Volume data input could be a problem [an UMPC] probably isn t the best place to thumb-type a novel or build a spreadsheet. 4 Parameter Evolution and Innovation Trajectory: The concept of the UMPC is not new. In fact, the company OQO launched the first commercial UMPC in Since then, many of the UMPC s key parameters have evolved; however, the most critical changes that may impact UMPC future success deal with the parameters of Processor (tied closely to Battery Life), Connectivity, Operating System and Display. OQO s UMPC ran Windows XP using the original Transmeta Crusoe low voltage chipset that minimally reduced the amount of battery drain. In addition, the display was typical of small handheld devices at the time and could not take full advantage of the operating system s powerful features. From 2003 to 2006, technology 3 March 7, Entrepreneur; Stuck in the Middle; M. Hogan, June

5 in mobile computing changed significantly. Specifically, advances to these key parameters made significant improvements to overall performance of the UMPC. First, wireless technology improvements, such as reliable WIFI and 3G WAN based wireless networks, made it easier for people to get access to information anytime / anywhere. These technologies improved connectivity for all types of devices, but illustrate the utility of having a powerful tool, like the UMPC, on the go with you. Second, Intel s new low voltage processors improved battery life consumption while supporting a robust OS like Windows XP or Vista. These chips, if produced in large quantities, could reduce the cost of UMPCs. Third, the displays improved, making Windows XP and other operating systems more readable and useful. They have hit commodity price points so that the overall cost of the UMPC can potentially be reduced. Given that the UMPC is basically a handheld PC and the number of companies interested in this technology and market, including giants such as Microsoft, Intel, Sony and Samsung, one can learn a great deal from the historic PC innovation trajectory provided in Figure 2. Figure 2 5 It is readily apparent that PC system performance improved significantly over a short period of time. Similarly, many UMPC key parameters significantly changed in just three years as discussed earlier. It is possible that the historic PC trajectory of Figure 2 will also apply to the UMPC. A Business Week article discussed the UMPC as, "The second-generation ones are 5 Harvard Business Review; The Half-Truth of First-Mover Advantage; F. Suarez and G. Lanzolla, April 2005, pg:

6 Customers / Applications System Performance much better than the first generation, and the third generation will be much better than the second." 6 Another way to look at the UMPC innovation trajectory is comparing it to the growing customer and application base for this technology. computing is already being wagged faster every day by a generation of teens born with a cell phone in one hand and a PSP in the other. Like they won t swarm all over communication-and-recreation-oriented tweeners [UMPCs] sooner or later. 7 Forward Concepts estimates the market for these tweener devices to be almost 40 million units in Using the data from Figure 2 and the information concerning increasing customers / applications, another view of the innovation trajectory is shown in Figure 3 - a notional representation. Figure 3 Eventually, a technological limit will be approached. Time Competitive Technologies: The UMPC has several competitors, all attempting to fill the gap between PDAs and laptops. Obviously, the UMPC competes against the technological improvements made to PDAs, smart phones and laptops. However, these systems define the gap to be filled. Other technologies that address the gap and directly compete with the UMPC include netbooks and mobile internet devices (MID). Netbooks are mini-laptops with reduced performance and a display that measures between seven and ten inches. They are typically powered by the Intel Atom processor. The netbook has a laptop-like form factor. Its display 6 Business Week; Is It a Smartphone Or a Laptop?; J. Hamm, 2007; Issue 4038 pg: Entrepreneur; Stuck in the Middle; M. Hogan, June Analyze This; Mobile Internet Devices on the Horizon; W. Strauss, September

7 flips up to reveal a standard QWERTY keyboard, which some people consider to be an advantage because it is more familiar. This form factor usually means that the netbook is larger than the MID and UMPC, impacting the key parameter, Portability. The MID can be considered to be an enhanced smart phone. MID technology is not concerned with hard disk capacity and other features of the UMPC, since they are focused on being relatively inexpensive pocket, communications-centric devices. Therefore, they have long battery life and excellent connectivity. Figure 4 provides a comparison between MIDs and UMPCs. Figure 4 9 Parameter MID UMPC Target Market Consumer-class always on mobile lifestyle device. Business-class mobile PC: typically shut down after each use. Processor SoC-based low power processor core, such as ARM Cortex A8. X86 PC architecture, like Intel Atom or Via Nano. OS Windows Mobile or Linux. Full PC OS, typically Windows XP or Vista. Application Optimized for 3G wireless communications, multimedia and web surfing with proprietary applications. Optimized for enterprise-grade, standard applications like Outlook, Word, Excel with focus on security. 3G is an option. Boot-Up Instantaneous (2-4 seconds) PC-style extended boot cycle. Display 4 to 6 inch display with touch screen capability 5 to 10 inch dispay with touch screen capability. Storage 1-8 GB Flash 4 to 8 GB flash (low-end), 20+ GB HDD, GB SSD (high-end) Keyboard Soft or hard keyboard Predominantly built-in hard keyboard. Battery Life 24+ hours under normal use 6-8 hours under normal use. Price $300-$500 (low-end), $750+ (high-end) $500-$600 (low-end), $2000+ (high-end) Figure 4 validates the advantage the UMPC has over the MID for consumers looking for full PC functionality in the palms of their hands. The opposite is also true. If the consumer is not looking for full PC functionality, the MID has many advantages over the UMPC (i.e. Price, Battery Life, Boot-Up, etc ). Natural or Physical Technological Limits: Despite the fact that competition among numerous companies attempting to fill the gap between PDAs and laptops will drive technological 9 Analyze This; Mobile Internet Devices on the Horizon; W. Strauss, September

8 advances to newer heights, eventually technological limits will be reached. Recall that UMPC technology, which resides in the PC domain, is aimed at filling the gap between this domain and the PDA domain. A PC that fits in the palms of your hands is a crucial factor to consider when introducing technological advances. The key parameter, Portability, has dimensions of size and weight. For the UMPC to be successful, it must be light weight and easily stored in a pocket or other small carrying device. With this in mind, parameters such as Display, Keyboard, Storage, Processor and Operating System will eventually be constrained by size and weight limitations. Without the assistance of projection or external devices, the UMPC display and keyboard will be limited by the dimension of size. Higher level operating systems and processors to run those systems will be limited by cooling properties. Fans may not be able to fit in the dimension constraints of a UMPC. Hard-disk capacity is also a function of size and weight. At some point, storage capacity must be optimized with the constraints of these dimensions. Conclusion: As each generation becomes more handheld-device savvy, the demand for a solution to fill the gap formed between PDAs and laptops grows greater. UMPC technology is just one of the solutions aimed at filling this gap. Its technology comes with advantages and disadvantages. The consumer will have the final say as to whether the UMPC is a success or not. There's no mystery about what's driving the 'tweener phenomenon. The computer industry is looking for new things to sell as the traditional PC market matures, revenue growth slows, and profit margins become even thinner. At the same time, mobile-phone makers want to develop products that fetch higher margins than commodity phones. So they all need new gadgets to get customers excited enough to open up their wallets Business Week; Is It a Smartphone Or a Laptop?; J. Hamm, 2007; Issue 4038 pg: