The Quantified Group: Getting Over Your Self

Transcription

1 The Quantified Group: Getting Over Your Self Jonathan Melnick, Ph.D. Senior Analyst Lux Executive Summit- Americas March 19, 2015

2 Agenda Wearables enter the ecosystem era There are different levels of ecosystems Ecosystems will need to work with one another 2

3 Agenda Wearables enter the ecosystem era There are different levels of ecosystems Ecosystems will need to work with one another 3

4 Wearable computing has a long history 2013: Google Glass 1810: First wristwatch- Queen of Naples/ Abraham-Louis Breguet 1975: Pulsar watch calculator 1960s- wearable electronics 2000s- connected devices 1500s: Wearable abacus 1500swearable computing 2003: Garmin Forerunner 2013: Samsung Galaxy Gear 1961:Thorp Roulette computer 4

5 Connected devices play a key role in the quantified self Activity tracking Jawbone, Fitbit, Misfit Vital signs monitoring- Biovotion, Oxiton, AliveCor, Huneo Infant monitoring- Fever smart, Sproutling 5

6 Key questions remain for wearables and the quantified self: What is the value of the connected device? 6

7 Key questions remain for wearables and the quantified self: What is the value of the data? U.S. Nutritional Labelling and Information Act of 1990 required labels on food as we know them today Obesity and diabetes have continued to rise, even more steeply since then Nutrition Labeling and Information Act of 1990 CDC (top) and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases 7

8 Wearable ecosystems seek to add value to the devices and the data Works with Nest 1500swearable computing 1960s- wearable electronics 2000sconnected devices 2010s-wearable ecosystems 8

9 Agenda Wearables enter the ecosystem era There are different levels of ecosystems Ecosystems will need to work with one another 9

10 Three types of wearable ecosystems have evolved Environm ent Data Device 10

11 Pebble is developing its own smartwatch ecosystem Pebble is a smartwatch with an electophoretic display Compatible with ios and Android Smartphones User base of ~1 million Funding history: 2012 $10 million Kickstarter Lost Kickstarter title to Coolest Cooler ($13 million) in : Pebble Time Steel reclaimed record (~$19 million) Launched Pebble App store in 2014 with 3 rd party software developers Notifications, Sports & Fitness, Tools & Utilities, Remotes, Daily, and Games as well as an area for Pebble Faces (aka watchfaces) Partnering with other device developers like activity tracker developer Misfit Wearables 11

12 Smart watches still have a lot of separate operating systems, which require their own ecosystems Pebble OS Watch OS Android Wear Sony four generations of its own OS before adopting Wear Tizen Qualcomm OS Apple Watch Moto 360 Asus Zenwatch Qualcomm Toq Samsung Gear 2 Sony SmartWatch LG G 12

13 Smart watches are just one form factor in connected devices Torso Chest Strap Shirt Sports bra Dress Belt Vest Head/neck Glasses/glasses accessory Hat/headband/h elmet Headset Contact lenses Necklace Mouthguard Arms/hands Watches Bracelets Armbands Rings Anywhere Agnostic device Tattoo Patch Legs/feet Insoles Socks Pants Anklet Leg strap Shoe accessory 13

14 Saleforce had challenges introducing starter apps for wearables Google Glass Android Wear Samsung Gear 2 Challenges faced: Platforms: Android, Tizen, C/C++, Unity3D, etc. with no clear winner Combining devices: can separate devices work in concert? UI/UX: e.g. different displays Data flow: Input/output vs. just output Security/ identity: no lock screens, passwords, etc. Pebble Myo Nymi 14

15 Data ecosystems aggregate users information Environm ent Data Device 15

16 Data ecosystems enable tracking, sharing, and analyzing wearable data Data ecosystems revolve around function and device compatibility Activity logging Sony Lifelog Athletics Nike+ UA Strava Ride with GPS Google Fit Health/wellness Apple Health Samsung S health AT&T Lifelog- entertainment, activity, and communication Strava- running and cycling Apple Health- activity and health 16

17 Nike+ is compatible with mostly Nike and Apple devices Nike+ and NikeFuel Tracks and logs workouts and activity Access larger data pools Compare with friends Limited device compatibility Data Device 17

18 Employers use wellness companies to lower premium costs Employer Insurance Employee Wellness Device 18

19 Devices come from the wellness programs Data Employer Device Employee Wellness Device 19

20 Ecosystems develop on three levels Environm ent Data Device 20

21 Works with Nest looks to control in and out of the house 2014: Google acquired Nest for $3.2 billion Jawbone: tracks when user is about to wake and adjusts temperature Pebble: set and monitor thermostat How will compatibility shake out with Apple s Homekit? What if you don t use Pebble or Jawbone? 21

22 Agenda Wearables enter the ecosystem era There are different levels of ecosystems Ecosystems will need to work with one another 22

23 Key question for wearable ecosystems: How will ecosystems converge and interact with each other? Works with Nest 1960s- wearable electronics 2000sconnected devices 2010s-wearable ecosystems Enviro nment 1500swearable computing Data Device 23

24 Device integration: Freescale s WaRP Wearable Reference Platform Device component challenges: No standardization leads to lack of uniformity across different devices Most developers use mobile components: Parts expensive in low volumes 12 to 18 month component turnover Unlike other markets, it open sources its reference designs to target broad start-up community and portfolio approach of mid-sized companies Freescale provides standardized motherboard and daughterboards for wearables 24

25 Data integration: Under Armour Record Nov. 2013: $150 Million/ 20 million users Feb. 2015: $475 Million/ 80 million users Partnered with HTC to develop devices for the UA Record Feb. 2015: $85 Million/ 20 million users UA Record- track fitness, compete with friends Currently works with hundreds of devices inc. Jawbone, Pebble, and Misfit 25

26 Key questions and takeaways Data Enviro nment Device Ecosystem battles are coming, they are often brutal, but who will win? There will be lots of data generated, who owns it? Performance opportunities exist today, when will health come about? There will be opportunity in forming and controlling your own ecosystem, but more in merging existing ecosystems Alpha partners will need to push standardization, but also be able to divide revenue through the ecosystems Wearables have enough diversity to avoid commoditization challenges of today s mobile electronics, but competitive threats will come from far and wide 26

27 Thank you Jonathan Melnick, Ph.D. Senior Analyst Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA USA Phone: Fax:

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