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1 NFL Prediction Model //

2 Table of contents Program Setup... 3 End User License Agreement... 4 Getting Started... 6 System Requirements... 9 Getting help... 9 Program Description Websites Administration License Verification Special Clear Parsing Routines Databases The Roster Injuries The Schedule Weighting Factors Examples Predictions Point Spread Analysis Reports Exit the Program FAQ and Troubleshooting Contact Us Purchasing / 42

3 Program Setup Once you receive the program either by download or on CD, its very easy to run the setup. Setup by downloading Follow the instructions on the web page. note: If you also received a CD, you should not run setup from the CD. The CD is only a backup in the event you need to run the setup in the future. Setup using a CD Insert the CD in your CD player and the program will start automatically if you have the auto-start option turned on. If the program doesn't start automatically, you will have to use windows explorer and access the files on the CD. You will find a setup.exe file on the CD's root directory, just double click on it and RUN. The setup will then execute. Just follow the setup instructions. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easy CHM and documentation editor 3 / 42

4 End User License Agreement End-User License Agreement for any of Joe Zambuto's software programs IMPORTANT READ CAREFULLY: This End-User License Agreement is a legal agreement between You-the buyer and Joseph Zambuto-the seller. By installing, copying or otherwise using the software, you agree to be bound by the terms of this agreement SOFTWARE PRODUCT LICENSE The software product is protected by copyright laws and international copyright treaties, as will as other intellectual property laws and treaties. The software product is licensed, not sold. GRANT OF LICENSE Depending upon what you purchased, you may install and use one copy of Joe Zambuto's NFL Prediction Model program, is here on called the software product on a single computer. You may also make a back-up copy of the software product. You may use this backup copy solely for archival purposes. DESCRIPTION OF OTHER RIGHTS AND LIMITATIONS You may not reverse engineer, de-compile, or disassemble the software product. You may not rent or lease the software product. You may permanently transfer all of your rights under this agreement provided you retain no copies. Without prejudice to any other rights, I may terminate this agreement if you fail to comply with the terms and conditions of this agreement. COPYRIGHT All title and copyrights in and to the software product (including but not limited to any images, photographs, animations, video, audio, music, text and applets, incorporated into the software product), any accompanying printed materials, and any copies of the software product, are owned by the seller. LIMITED WARRANTY I warrant that the software will perform substantially in accordance with the accompanying written and/or program help for a period of thirty (30) days from the date of receipt. My entire liability and your exclusive remedy shall be, at my option, either return of the price paid, repair or replacement of the software and which is returned to me with a copy of your receipt. NO OTHER WARRANTIES To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, I disclaim all other warranties, either express or implied, including, but not limited to implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a 4 / 42

5 particular purpose, with regard to the software. NO LIABILITY FOR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, in no event shall I be liable for any damages whatsoever (including without limitation, special, incidental, consequential, or indirect damages for personal injury, loss of business profits, business interruption, loss of business information, or any other pecuniary loss) arising of the use of or inability to use this product, even if I have been advised of the possibility of such damages. In any case, my entire liability under any provision of this agreement shall be limited to the amount actually paid by you for the software. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easy to use tool to create HTML Help files and Help web sites 5 / 42

6 Getting Started Welcome to my NFL Prediction Model Computer Software Program. This program was designed to help you predict the outcome of next week's NFL game. It utilizes custom website "parsing" routines that "pulls-in" all data needed to make accurate predictions. However, it is NOT a program that gives you my best picks, but rather a handicapping tool that allows you to teak and tune the model based upon the past performance, changes in the lineups and your own handicapping experience. What follows is an exhaustive help program. Review all the pages and good luck! Oh, and no matter how good a predictive model or Vegas handicappers is...any thing can happen on any given Sunday! 6 / 42

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8 There's also a link to the License Agreement. 8 / 42

9 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Free PDF documentation generator System Requirements The NFL Prediction Model Software Program was created using Visual Basic 6.0 on an Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-4210u 1.70 GHz with 8.00 GB of Ram using Windows 8.1. Note: The program does run on Windows Vista, XP and Windows 7. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Free help authoring environment Getting help When you see this menu button, you can then launch the HTML (web- 9 / 42

10 browser) HELP program. There is a table-of-contents designed to help you navigate and understand the capabilities of the program. To get the maximum benefit of the program, first go through all the topics prior to actually trying to use any of the features. 10 / 42

11 NOTE: There is also a YouTube Instructional Video to assist in your learning of the program. <--link to view video There is a Table of Contents for easy access. 11 / 42

12 If you click on the "About the Program" the intro box will appear. You can also review the License Agreement. 12 / 42

13 There's also a link to the License Agreement. 13 / 42

14 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Full featured multi-format Help generator Program Description What follows are Help Pages to explain the features of the program. I recommend you review all the descriptions and associated videos before attempting to use the program. 14 / 42

15 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Full featured multi-format Help generator Websites I have provided easy access to several key websites for easy viewing. Just use the pull-down menu "WEBSITE(S)" and click on the desired website. Here is the ESPN website / 42

16 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Full featured multi-format Help generator Administration Under the pull-down menu "ADMINISTRATION", you can set you default printer and the location of any reports. You can select either the Screen or Directly to your default printer. Printer Setup: 16 / 42

17 Set all reports to go to the screen, this is the default location. Note: Once the report is displayed on the computer screen, you can also send it to your default printer. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Full featured Help generator License Verification License Verification should only be used when directed by me. 17 / 42

18 Once the program is launched for the first time a computer generated code is created. me this code and I will you back the access and security information that will release all the associated program features. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Full featured Documentation generator Special Clear The special clear feature should only be used when directed by me. This will clear the old license validation and re-generate a new 18 / 42

19 computer generated code. me this code and I will you back the access and security information that will release all the associated program features. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Free PDF documentation generator Parsing Routines The Parsing routines is the heart of the program. Parsing "pull-in" all the past performance data needed to accurately predict the outcome of the upcoming games. The image above shows the link to the NFL 2104 Regular Season. Under NCAA, you can "pull-in" the college past performance data for this years draft picks. This is good for the beginning of the season. Note: If you use this option later in the season, any current data the player accumulates in the NFL will be overwritten by the drafted player's college data. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easy to use tool to create HTML Help files and Help web sites Databases 19 / 42

20 Once the data is "parsed" from the website, you can view the "raw" data. This example shows the NFL'S DEFENSE TEAMS data / 42

21 You can sort on any column by first selecting the column and then use the Sort Col buttons... You can also select a specific team's defensive data by clicking on the desired team. You can display all the teams by clicking on the "Display All" command button. 21 / 42

22 You can also DELETE "ALL" data in the database(s). Note: The data will be permanently lost and will require "Parsing" to populate Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easily create CHM Help documents The Roster 22 / 42

23 The NFL Roster is based upon the "OurLads NFL Scouting Services Full Charts", showing the depth charts. Establishing a "Clean Roster" is nothing more than deleting all entries. Updating the Roster launches a parsing routine over to "Ourlads" website and pulls in the charts data. You can then Display, with Sorting (select a column) and Team selection capabilities. 23 / 42

24 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Full featured Documentation generator Injuries Currently, any injury code with the exception of Probable & Questionable, will result in removing the injured players statistics from the calculations PROBABL E QUESTIO NABLE DOUBTFU L LEFT Probably play 50/50 chance will not play 75% will not play Left previous game OUT Out NFI Out SUSPEND Out Each week you should update the injury list. The injuries are evaluated based upon the follow: 24 / 42

25 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Create HTML Help, DOC, PDF and print manuals from 1 single source The Schedule You can view the NFL Schedule (Grid format) and/or parse from the web. The prediction model uses this database to determine home team advantage. Note: If you click on the "Parse NFL Schedule Grid" pull-down menu, you will be given a chance to change your mind. 25 / 42

26 This feauture will erase the current NFL Schedule and then parse the web to create a new schedule. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Create iphone web-based documentation Weighting Factors The weighting factors provide the predictive nature of the program. It is here that you can put "weight" on specific past performance ratings. Just move the associated slide for values of Prior to conducting a prediction, you need to either create or load a previously established weighting file. All weighting files have a ".wts" file extension. When you want to load a previous weighting file, use the pull-down menu "Load Weighting File". A Filemgr will load so that you can navigate to the location of your files. 26 / 42

27 Note : During program startup the previously loaded weighting file will be automatically loaded. Once the weighting file has been loaded, you can then view the desired weighted values: Here you can see that these ratings have a weighting value of 5. In addition, the "HOME" slide is also set to 5. This means all home teams will be given a +5 pt advantage. The algorithm used is as follows: 1. The max or min value among the 32 teams for each rating is determined 2. Then each teams value becomes a ratio of their value to the max or min value 3. The weighting value provided (ie, below) would then be the multiplier For example, if the NYG had the maximum "YDS" then their rating rating divided by the max rating is equal to 1. Then 1 times the weighting value for YDS, the 5 in the example below, results in an overall value of 5 pts. If a team had a rating of say 75% of the the max rating, then their overall value would be 5 x.75 or 3.75 pts. 27 / 42

28 To help set the weights you can use the "Set All Weights" option. Select a value between and then hit the button. All the weights will then be slid over to the value provided. Remember, you have to save the weighting values. If you need a simple explanation of the ratings, use the Glossary button. This comes from the official NFL statistics page. 28 / 42

29 Once the weighting values are set, you need to save them! Use the pull-down menu "Save toweighting File" button. A message will come up reminding you about the.wts file extension. You can double-click inside the filename box to bring up the FileMgr. You can use the FileMgr to pre-load an existing weighting file or you can just type the full filename including the path inside the box. 29 / 42

30 Depress the "Save" button, a confirmation message will appear. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Free CHM Help documentation generator Examples 30 / 42

31 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Create HTML Help, DOC, PDF and print manuals from 1 single source 31 / 42

32 Predictions From this pull-down menu you actually generate the predictions for the upcoming week. First thing you need to do is set the "Game Week". Notice that Week 13 is selected. When the program loads it will remember the last used Game Week. When you select the "Team Only" Predictions pull-down button, the computer will generate the predictions based upon the weighted values assigned to the Team Ratings only (Player Only will only use Player statistics). All the ratings are added for a team total. The "Home Team" field is populated with a "1" to indicate the Home Team based upon the Game week selection and the Schedule lookup. 32 / 42

33 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Free CHM Help documentation generator Point Spread From this pull-down menu you can "parse" the CBS Sports website and populate the database with the Vegas Point 33 / 42

34 Spread for the game week selected. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Create iphone web-based documentation Analysis From this pull-down menu you can "parse" the ESPN website and populate the database with the Final Scores for the game week selected. Once you parse the web for the final scores, you need to populate the database for input to the statistical model. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easily create HTML Help documents Reports 34 / 42

35 Once the predictions have been made, you can generate and view the associated report. Remember, based upon the Administrative report setting, the report will be generated and delivered to the selected location. In this example, the report is sent to the Screen for instant viewing. The teams underlined represent the HOME team. You will be asked how you want the report sorted. "P" for Highest Predicted Points first, or "D" for Highest Delta points first. 35 / 42

36 You can search within the report 36 / 42

37 You can export the data into several different formats. The most popular is PDF. You can also send the report to your default printer. 37 / 42

38 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easy CHM and documentation editor 38 / 42

39 Exit the Program When you want to exit the program, always use the pull-down option. This will ensure all databases and memory options are saved. Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easily create PDF Help documents 39 / 42

40 FAQ and Troubleshooting Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easy CHM and documentation editor 40 / 42

41 Contact Us Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Easy to use tool to create HTML Help files and Help web sites 41 / 42

42 Purchasing 2014/2015 Pricing List Introductory Offer Basic Program $49.95 CD Backup Disc $6.00 Created with the Personal Edition of HelpNDoc: Full featured Documentation generator 42 / 42