Conveying the Storm Surge Hazard in a Technology-Driven Society

Transcription

1 Conveying the Storm Surge Hazard in a Technology-Driven Society Dr. Rick Knabb Tropical Program Manager The Weather Channel 15 March 2011

2 Topics Background and perspectives Information flow to and from the media How are people receiving weather information? Storm surge graphics the way it has been Options for future enhancements

3 Inside the Studios

4 Sources of Incoming Information Official government public products Government websites and press releases Reports from other news entities (e.g., AP, newspapers, other TV outlets) Universities Other private companies Social media Other user-generated content

5 It s a Multi-Platform World

6 Apps easy to find and download Easy to update Different business models Expanding user base Easy developer submission iphone Android BlackBerry Palm Windows 7 6

7 Source: insightexpress.com 7

8 8

9 Source: insightexpress.com 9

10 Source: insightexpress.com 10

11 Mobile Media Segments 1Q09 v. 1Q10 Just Voice SMS (but not mobile media) Mobile Media Mobile Media = Connected Media (except SMS only) in MobiLens Product: MobiLens Data: Three month average ending March 2010 Country: US N=30,740 11

12 Media Description Mobile Internet (via browser) Unique Users % of media consumption made up by Smartphones 68M 53% Mobile Apps 64M 58% Mobile Video 10M 69% MOBILE MEDIA USAGE DRIVEN BY SMARTPHONES (iphones, Blackberries, Etc.) Source: comscore MobiLens, 3 Month Average ended May, Target = A18+ and Application Access, Browser Access, Video Usage 12

13 weather search news maps sports information entertainment news movie information stock quotes or financial news bank accounts tech news restaurant information traffic reports business directories general reference classifieds television guides gaming information electronic payments auction sites online retail Top 20 Mobile Content Categories April % 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 18% 18% 17% 20% 24% 22% 21% 21% 29% 31% 34% 36% 44% 49% 49% OF MOBILE WEB USERS look for weather information on their phones each month. Source: comscore, MobiLens Data: 3 month average ending April

14 Top Smartphone Mobile App Genres Weather/News Search Social 56% 55% 54% Music 46% Entertainment/Food 38% Banking/Finance Sports Productivity Shopping/Retail 31% 30% 30% 29% Video/Movies 25% Travel/Lifestyle 21% Source: Nielsen Three-month average ending Nov. 2010

15 MUST BE LOCALIZED MUST BE PERSONALIZED MUST BE FAST MUST BE SIMPLE TO NAVIGATE MUST BE EASY TO UNDERSTAND MUST BE RELEVANT WEATHER FROM A TRUSTED SOURCE 15

16 SOCIAL WEATHER TABLETS INTERACTIVE TV INTERNATIONAL VIDEO 16

17 Past Storm Surge Graphics 17

18 Impetuses for Change Need for consistent message across all distribution platforms (TV, web, mobile) Consumers want personalization, customization, and convenience (which differs among platforms) Location-based services User-generated content

19 Underlying Principles While Moving Forward Encourage necessary evacuations, discourage unnecessary evacuations Open lines of communication with NWS and EMs Responsibly provide information on inland extent and inundation above ground level Convey geographic detail, but commensurate with uncertainties at various lead times and based on model ensembles/compositing Seek out and understand the consumers needs Pay close attention to social scientists

20 Needed Data Parameters and Formats 1 parameter: potential surge inundation in feet Potential sources: Exceedance form of probabilities Mini MEOWs Sources would be transparent to public Desirable formats KML immediate short-term solution shape files for import to operational display systems grib2 best for driving all products on all platforms

21 Why do we need an official forecast of surge inundation in feet? Consumers need substantiation for evacuations and warnings Someone else will provide it, which leads to media and public confusion

22 Needed Data Parameters and Formats Domains National Incl PR/VI, HI, Amer Samoa, etc. International

23 Other than inundation mapping. Education and outreach are critical, and the media needs to play an active role We need a storm surge warning Where to get a national evacuation zone map?