THIRD QUARTER October
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1 THIRD QUARTER 2010 October
2 AGENDA About Q Financial review Guidance and Concluding remarks Third quarter 2010
3 HIGHLIGHTS Q3 Group Total customer base amounting to more than 30 million customers. Net customer intake for the group of almost 1.3 million Net sales grew by 2 percent. Currency-adjusted net sales grew by 6 percent, driven by mobile sales EBITDA grew by 13 percent. Currency-adjusted EBITDA grew by 17 percent. EBITDA margin amounted to 28 (25) percent Nordic Russia Central Europe & Eurasia Western Europe Third quarter 2010
4 (SEK Million) (thousands) HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 SWEDEN Increased mobile revenue growth to 10 percent Adding 103,000 mobile customers Mobile EBITDA margin 34 (34) percent Q2 09 Mobile net sales Mobile YoY net sales growth Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Postpaid Prepaid EBITDA-margins 40% 35% 30% 25% Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % Third quarter 2010
5 SHIFT TOWARDS SMART PHONES Smartphones demanded by mass market Shift driven by increased variety of smartphones combined with an increased awareness of the possibilities of a mobile internet access 1 iphone4 2 Top 10 phone sales (Aug- Sep) Sony Ericsson X10 Mini Pro 3 iphone 3GS 4 Samsung Galaxy S Data usage per month (Mb) Regular phone customers * Out-going minutes ** ARPU Excluding operator revenue and installments Third quarter 2010 : 1 : 40 MoU* 1 : 1.4 ASPU** 1 : 1.7 Proportion based scale where regular phone usage is base Smartphone customers 5 HTC Desire 6 Sony Ericsson X10 Mini 7 HTC Wildfire 8 Sony Ericsson X10 9 Sony Ericsson Elm 10 Nokia 6700 Slide
6 (SEK million) (In thousands) HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 RUSSIA Third and fourth new regions now EBITDA break-even 1,170,000 (1,100,000) new customers in Q Kaliningrad Tula Orel Tomsk New regions EBITDA - New regions EBITDA - Total margin Q4 09 Q3 09 Q2 09 EBITDA - Old regions 37% 36% 35% 34% 33% 32% 31% Q3 10 Q2 10 Q Q2 09 Net Intake - New regions Net Intake - Old regions Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
7 (thousands) (SEK million) (SEK million) HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 BALTIC REGION Stabilizing economy leading to better operational environment Strong net intake, adding 55,000 (28,000) customers in the region Net intake Estonia Lithuania Latvia Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q EBITDA CAPEX EBITDA - CAPEX Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
8 SEK Million HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 CROATIA Next goal is to deliver positive free cash flow within a year 81,000 (70,000) new customers added in Q Net intake EBITDA Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
9 HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 KAZAKHSTAN Preparing for re-launch under Tele2 brand 1H 2011 Customer stock of in Q ,000 new customers added in September Net intake 2010 April Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep Third quarter 2010
10 (SEK million) (SEK million) HIGHLIGHTS TELE2 WESTERN EUROPE Netherlands - BBned acquisition completed Germany - Record high EBITDA margin in fixed telephony of 46 percent Austria - Continued good progress in restructuring program leading to sequential improvement of EBITDA contribution Third quarter EBITDA contribution Netherlands Austria Germany Netherlands Austria Germany Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10
11 AGENDA About Q Financial review Guidance and Concluding remarks Third quarter 2010
12 Q GROUP RESULTS SEK million Q3 10 Q3 09 Change % Net Sales 9,998 9,829 2% EBITDA 2,751 2,441 13% - EBITDA margin (%) 28% 25% Depreciation and joint venture Depreciation of Net sales (%) 9% 9% One-off items EBIT 1,892 1,633 Normalized EBIT Normalized EBIT margin (%) 19% 15% Financial items Taxes Net result, continuing operations 2,484 2,233 Net result, discontinued operations Net result 2,513 1, Third quarter 2010
13 TAXES Taxes in income statement YTD Sep 10 Q Q Q Normal -1, One-Off Total Taxes in cash flow YTD Sep 10 Q Q Q Normal SEC tax dispute: Oral hearing will take place in the end of November, thereafter the outcome will be announced in 1-2 months The total value of the SEC tax dispute is SEK 4,6 billion Third quarter 2010
14 CURRENCY MOVEMENTS (VS SEK) YTD Avarage 2010 vs 2009 Q Q Q EUR -10% -10% -9% RUB 0,5% +/- 0-2% Fix rate vs 31/ Q Q Q EUR -12% -8% -6% RUB -7,5% 3% 1% EUR/RUB pegged currencies approximately: 38% of sales and 33% of EBITDA Third quarter 2010
15 CASH FLOW FOR Q SEK million Q3 10 Q3 09 OPERATING ACTIVITIES Cash flow from operations, less paid taxes Taxes paid 2, , Changes in working capital CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES 2,620 2,587 INVESTING ACTIVITIES CAPEX ,065 Cash Flow after CAPEX Acquisition and sale of shares and participations, net 1, ,601 1, , Third quarter 2010
16 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 BSEK GROUP FINANCIAL PROFILE Net debt Net debt incl. JV Net debt/ EBITDA 2009 Net debt incl. JV/ EBITDA ,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0, Third quarter 2010
17 ROCE 25,0% 24,0% 23,0% 22,0% 21,0% 20,0% 19,0% 18,0% 17,0% 16,0% 15,0% 14,0% 13,0% 12,0% 11,0% 10,0% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Third quarter 2010
18 (SEK million) GROUP EBITDA Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Group EBITDA margin % 28% 26% Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % 22% 20% Third quarter 2010
19 (SEK million) GROUP MOBILE EBITDA Mobile EBITDA on own infrastructure Mobile EBITDA margin on own infratsructure Mobile EBITDA (MVNO) Total mobile EBITDA margin % 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 0 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % Third quarter 2010
20 SEK SEK MoU AND ARPU DEVELOPMENT Sweden Russia Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 ARPU MoU Robust ARPU development Swedish and Russian ARPU grew more than 8 percent in one quarter Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 ARPU MoU Third quarter 2010
21 AGENDA About Q Financial review Guidance and Concluding remarks Third quarter 2010
22 TELE2 GOING FORWARD Best Deal position Targeting a long-term mobile EBITDA margin on own infrastructure of at least 35 percent All operations should have the ambition of reaching ROCE of at least 20 percent The capability to reach a top 2 position, in terms of customer market share, in an individual country or region Third quarter 2010
23 GROUP OUTLOOK (CHANGED) Tele2 forecasts a corporate tax rate of approximately 22 percent excluding one-off items in The tax payment will affect cash flow by approximately SEK 800 million in 2010 The oral hearing of the SEC tax dispute is expected to be conducted the 26 of November and a verdict will be announced 1-2 month(s) later Tele2 forecasts that CAPEX level in 2010 will not exceed SEK 4,000 million Earlier SEK 4,200-4,400 million Third quarter 2010
24 SWEDEN OUTLOOK (UNCHANGED) Tele2 will continue to target the postpaid segment, which in the longer term will lead to: Increased ARPU Lower churn In the short term, this strategy will lead to higher total acquisition costs resulting in: An EBITDA margin in the range of percent depending on customer intake in Third quarter 2010
25 RUSSIA OUTLOOK (CHANGED) Subscriber base should be able to reach million by YE 2011 Maintain ARPU growth at 5 percent by 2011 EBITDA Old regions EBITDA margin should stabilize at 45 percent Most New regions EBITDA will break-even by 18 months (2 years) from launch Russia s total EBITDA margin should develop in the range of (27-32) percent Capex Accumulated Capex in Russia should be in the range of SEK 3,500-4,000 million Earlier SEK 4,500-5,000 million Selected acquisitions when available and under right conditions Third quarter 2010
26 KAZAKHSTAN OUTLOOK (UNCHANGED) Subscriber base should aim to reach 400, ,000 by YE 2010 Blended ARPU should be in the range of SEK EBITDA should approximately be: - SEK -250 million in SEK -400 to -450 million in 2011 Accumulated Capex should be in the range of SEK 1,400-1,600 million by YE 2011 Operations in Kazakhstan should be able to reach breakeven within 2 years from the commercial re-launch, which is planned in 1H Third quarter 2010
27 CROATIA OUTLOOK (NEW) Tele2 Croatia will reach free cash flow break-even by 2H Third quarter 2010
28 CONCLUDING REMARKS Nordic Accelerated mobile revenue growth Russia Record high customer intake and EBITDA Central Europe and Eurasia Improving economy leading to stable cash flow contribution Western Europe Solid operational performance 2010 an investment year Russia Kazakhstan Sweden - 4G - Spring Mobil Norway - 3G Netherlands - BBned Third quarter 2010
29 Q&A Third quarter 2010
30 Appendix A Third quarter 2010
31 (In thousands) (In thousands) TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE Mobile subscribers Net intake Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
32 (SEK million) TELE2 SWEDEN MOBILE (contd) Mobile Net sales EBITDA marg. EBIT marg % % % % 24% Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % Third quarter 2010
33 (In thousands) (In thousands) TELE2 NORWAY MOBILE Mobile subscribers Net intake Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
34 (SEK million) TELE2 NORWAY MOBILE (contd) Mobile net sales EBITDA marg % 9% 650 8% % 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 450 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 0% Third quarter 2010
35 (In thousands) (In thousands) TELE2 RUSSIA MOBILE Mobile subscribers Net intake Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
36 (SEK million) TELE2 RUSSIA MOBILE (contd) Mobile net sales EBITDA marg % 37% 36% 35% 34% 33% 32% 31% 0 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % Third quarter 2010
37 (In thousands) TELE2 BALTIC MOBILE Mobile subscribers Net intake Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
38 (SEK million) TELE2 BALTIC MOBILE (contd) Estonia Net sales Lithuania Net sales Latvia Net sales EBITDA marg % % % Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % Third quarter 2010
39 (In thousands) (In thousands) TELE2 CROATIA MOBILE Mobile subscribers Net intake Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
40 (SEK million) TELE2 CROATIA MOBILE (contd) Mobile Net sales EBITDA marg % 0% -5% -10% -15% 0 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % Third quarter 2010
41 Appendix B Third quarter 2010
42 NET DEBT AND DIVIDEND TARGETS Shareholder remuneration Tele2 s intention is to pay a progressive ordinary dividend to its shareholders over the medium term Long-term financial leverage Tele2 s longer-term financial leverage, defined as the net debt /EBITDA ratio, should be in line with the industry and the markets in which it operates Short-term consideration The company needs to take the uncertainties in the financial markets into consideration and act accordingly Third quarter 2010
43 Appendix C Third quarter 2010
44 FINANCIAL ITEMS Q SEK million Q3 10 Q3 09 Change External Net interest expenses Exchange rate differences, external Other financial items Exchange rate differences, intragroup Financial items Third quarter 2010
45 (SEK million) CASH FLOW DEVELOPMENT Cash flow after CAPEX Cash flow from operating activities Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
46 (In thousands) GROUP NET INTAKE PER SEGMENT Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q Third quarter 2010
47 (In thousands) (In thousands) GROUP CUSTOMER STOCK Group Customer Stock Mobile Fixed Broadband Fixed Telephony Group Mobile Customer Stock Mobile Internet Postpaid voice Prepaid voice Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Strong intake in the mobile segment Driven by Russia adding 1,170,000 new customers Third quarter 2010
48 (SEK million) GROUP FIXED BROADBAND EBITDA Fixed broadband Fixed broadband EBITDA margin % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 0% Third quarter 2010
49 (SEK million) GROUP FIXED TELEPHONY EBITDA Fixed telephony Fixed telephony EBITDA margin Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % 32% 31% 30% 29% 28% 27% 26% 25% Third quarter 2010
50 (SEK million) GROUP EBIT Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Group EBIT margin Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Third quarter 2010
51 (SEK million) GROUP CAPEX Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other Capex/sales % % % 800 8% 600 6% 400 4% 200 2% 0 0% Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 In 2010: Tele2 forecasts a CAPEX level in the range of SEK 4,600 4,800 million Third quarter 2010
52 Third quarter 2010
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