MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS FIRST QUARTER 2013 MD&A
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1 MD&A Q113 Highlights In Q113, dtac achieved another great quarter with service revenues growing healthily 9.1% YoY and 2.6% QoQ, mainly contributed by strong data revenue growth partly offset by voice revenue that remained soft. Total revenues grew strongly 6.1% YoY but slightly lower than expected QoQ due to softer handset sales development. Mobile Internet continued its strong growth momentum, growing 84.7% YoY and 18.2% QoQ on the back of continuing popularity of social network applications and increasingly affordable smartphones. EBITDA reached THB 7.5 billion growing 10.7% QoQ and 10.3% YoY. EBITDA margin rose to 31.2%, improving 3.5pps QoQ due to seasonally lower cost of services and less contribution of low-margin handset business. Net profit reached THB 3.0 billion, growing significantly 17.7% QoQ despite the one-time transactions during the period. Significant One-Time Transactions 1 Due to changes in Prepaid active subscriber definition, total subscribers in Q113 reached 26.6 million, approximately 1 million subscribers gain from the existing subscriber base in addition to net additional subscribers of 290,299 in Q113. Q113 blended average revenue per user (ARPU) decreased 2.1% QoQ and 1.9% YoY under the pressure of larger subscriber base and decreased contribution from prepaid voice. Q113 blended minutes of use (MOU) decreased 0.5% QoQ due to high seasonality in Q412, but increased 1.7% YoY mainly driven by prepaid voice usage from network celebration campaign. In Q113, we have revised up our investment guidance for 2013 from minimum of THB 8.0 billion to minimum of THB 12.5 billion, with the plan to achieve 30% population coverage by the end of Our launch target of 3G 2.1GHz network remained in the second quarter of Reversal of USO fee dtac had set accrual for Universal Service Obligation (USO) fee in accordance with the acquisition of Internet Service Provider (ISP) license. Since the license had not been used to commercially operate, dtac submitted a request to NBTC for termination approval in Q312. In Q113, NBTC acknowledged that dtac was not obligate to pay any USO fee for the unused ISP license. Therefore, we reversed the total accrued amount of THB 147 million, with a positive effect on the cost of services in Q113. Write-off the New Order Management System (NEO) The New Order Manage system (NEO) was launched in January Due to its low performance and instability causing long delays in customers request fulfillment and negative customer experience, the NEO was decommissioned and rolled back to the existing CRM and Order Management system in March Investment related to NEO, excluding the hardware investment, was written off as one-time expense in March The total written-off amount of THB 500 million was recorded under General Administrative expense and was excluded from the Q113 EBITDA. Beside the written-off financial impact, NEO also impacted our operations as follows: 1) soft handset sales due to inability to complete customers order requests, 2) rising prepaid churn due to limited retention activities, 3) lower prepaid data subscribers and revenues due to limited upselling activities and inability to subscribe bite-size packages, 4) higher provision of prepaid bad debts (Jaidee Haiyuem SOS) as criteria screening was halted, and 5) higher provision of postpaid bad debts as collection processes were halted. After the successful roll back to existing CRM and Order Management system in March 2013, all operations resume and continue to operate smoothly. Adjustment on provision for bad debt from Jaidee Haiyuem SOS Jaidee Haiyuem SOS is a prepaid service enabling customer to borrow THB 30 airtime with THB 2 fee charged. After next refill, customers will be automatically charged back of both airtime and fee. Jaidee Haiyuem SOS has not been only strengthen our prepaid brand position, but also generated healthy revenue with acceptable percentage of bad debt. The service also generated revenue upside potential since we provide convenience to customers to use in advance when they may not be able to refill in time. Bad debt from Jaidee Haiyuem SOS had been under provisioned since August 2011 and was adjusted for the total amount of THB 170 million in Q113. Moreover, accounts receivable on prepaid subscribers significantly increased which was attributed to NEO as criteria screening was inactive. Operational Summary Starting from Q113, dtac has changed the definition of its inactive prepaid subscribers from one-way suspension to two-way suspension with no refill. Consequently, numbers of subscribers, net additional subscribers, average revenue per user (ARPU) and minutes of use (MOU) have been restated to reflect the change accordingly. In Q113, dtac had another period of strong net additional subscribers in postpaid by 205,762 from total of 290,299 as a result of our successful postpaid subscriber acquisition. Prepaid subscribers were pressured by higher churn during NEO launch due to limited marketing and retention activities. Total subscribers rose to 26.6 million at end of Q113.
2 Q113 blended Average Revenue per User (ARPU) decreased 2.1% QoQ and 1.9% YoY under the pressure of larger subscriber base and decreased contribution from prepaid voice. However, we could maintain postpaid ARPU QoQ and even increased it YoY as a result of higher data consumption supported by our quality 3G 850MHz network, more variety and more affordable smartphones and continued popularity of social network applications. Q113 blended Minutes of Use (MOU) decreased 0.5% QoQ due to high seasonality in Q412, but increased 1.7% YoY mainly driven by prepaid voice usage from network celebration Total active subscribers (in thousand) Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Postpaid 2,399 2,451 2,502 2,586 2,816 3,022 Prepaid* 21,617 21,680 21,808 21,982 23,502 23,587 Total* 24,016 24,131 24,310 24,568 26,318 26,609 Net additional subscribers (in thousand) Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Financial Summary Operating Revenues Total operating revenues for Q113 amounted to THB 23.9 billion, decreasing 1.2% QoQ from reduction in handset sales but growing 6.2% YoY mainly driven by non-voice revenue as a result of continued popularity in smartphones and social applications, and our expanded 3G 850MHz coverage. Revenue from Voice Service in Q113 slightly declined 1.0% QoQ and 2.6% YoY to THB 10.8 billion. Postpaid voice increased 5.3% QoQ and 11.5% YoY as a result of the popularity in our smartphone bundled packages and the successful conversion of high spending prepaid to postpaid. However, prepaid voice revenue remained soft in Q113 which we expect to continue to be soft due to price cap enforced by NBTC and limited opportunity in upcountry. Contribution from voice revenue to service revenues has become smaller from 57.5% in Q112 to 51.4% in Q campaign. Postpaid MOU continued to decline due to change in customers lifestyle toward more data and less voice usage. At the end of Q113, data users stood at 9.1 million, representing 34.0% of total subscribers, and 3G subscribers reached 2.9 million increasing from 0.8 million in Q112 and 2.3 million in Q412, implying growth of 28.5% QoQ and 256.1% YoY. Smartphone penetration also strongly increased to 23.1% from 16.6% in Q112 and 21.7% in Q412 supported by more affordable smartphones in the market. The higher penetration benefit dtac in both existing mobile data usage growth and the soon coming subscriber migration to the new 3G 2.1GHz. Postpaid Prepaid* , Total* , MOU (minutes/sub/month) Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Postpaid Prepaid* Blended* Postpaid w/o IC Prepaid w/o IC* Blended w/o IC* ARPU (THB/sub/month) Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Postpaid Prepaid* Blended* Postpaid w/o IC Prepaid w/o IC* Blended w/o IC* * Prepaid subscribers, MOUs, and APRUs were restated following the change of prepaid inactive definition from one-way suspension to two-way suspension with no refill. Consequently, total subscribers, blended MOUs, and blended ARPUs were also restated accordingly. Revenue from Value-Added Services (VAS) continued its strong growth in Q113 at 12.8% QoQ and 49.6% YoY amounting to THB 5.0 billion. The major contributor in VAS revenue remained mobile Internet usage on the back of continued popularity in smartphones and social applications, and our expanded 3G 850MHz coverage. We continuously have done our best to ensure the quality data experience for our customers. Contribution from VAS revenue to service revenues has increased from 17.4% in Q112 to 23.8% in Q113. We believe that the trend will continue for the rest of the year. Revenue from International Roaming Service (IR) in Q113 strongly increased in both inbound and outbound. For Q113, IR revenue stood at THB 685 million growing 5.7% QoQ and 47.2% YoY mainly driven by inbound roaming revenue. Contribution from IR revenue to service revenues has increased from 2.4% in Q112 to 3.3% in Q113.
3 Interconnection (IC) Revenue for Q113 decreased 2.7% QoQ and 2.3% YoY. As a result, the contribution of IC revenue to service revenues decreased to 17.4% in Q113 from 19.4% in Q112. Other Service Revenues, comprising mainly of revenues from IDD services and other fees, in Q113 increased 19.2% QoQ and 38.3% YoY, mainly driven by IDD services. Revenue from Sales of Handsets and Starter Kits for Q113 at THB 2.9 billion decreased 21.3% QoQ and 9.1% YoY from the lack of new phone model release in the quarter while there were launches of iphone4s in Q112 and iphone5 in Q412. In addition, handset sales in Q113 were partly affected by NEO due to its unstable performance. Operating Costs Total operating costs, improving 7.4% QoQ from lower network OPEX and others while increased 4.8% YoY from higher revenue share and network OPEX, stood at THB 16.2 billion. Regulatory Costs, comprising revenue share to CAT and numbering fee to the NBTC, in Q113 stood at THB 5.4 billion, increasing 0.6% QoQ and 8.2% YoY from service revenue growth. In this period, there was one-time USO fee reversal of THB 147 million as a positive effect. As a result, regulatory costs to service revenues slightly decreased from 26.0% in Q112 to 25.8% in Q113. Network OPEX in Q113 at THB 953 million significantly decreased 14.3% QoQ due to seasonally lower site rental and maintenance expenses and contract expiry from network modernization. However, it increased 13.1% YoY mainly from the 3G 850MHz network expansion. Network OPEX to service revenues slightly increased from 4.4% in Q112 to 4.5% in Q113. Interconnection (IC) Cost for Q113 decreased 0.2% QoQ and 1.5% YoY, amounting to THB 3.5 billion. IC cost to service revenues decreased from 18.4% in Q112 to 16.6% in Q113. Net IC for the period was THB 157 million, decreasing from THB 191 million in Q112 and THB 250 million in Q412. Other Operating Costs of Services, consisting of prepaid card production costs and commissions, IR and IDD costs, network insurance costs and others, in Q113 decreased 15.0% QoQ mainly from costs of IDD. However, it increased 19.7% YoY due to higher roaming costs. These costs to service revenues slightly increased from 4.9% in Q112 to 5.3% in Q113. Depreciation and Amortization (D&A) of Operating Costs of Services for Q113 decreased 8.9% QoQ as a result of the one-time write-off but increased 10.9% YoY from investment in the entire 2G network modernization and 3G 850MHz network expansion in addition to the shorter amortization period. D&A of operating costs of services stood at 11.4% in Q112 and 11.6% in Q113. Cost of Handsets and Starter Kits for Q113 decreased 20.5% QoQ and 5.0% YoY in line with the corresponding revenue but at a smaller extent due to lower margin. Handsets and starter kits margin was 3.5% in Q113, decreasing from 8.1% in Q112 and 4.5% in Q412 as the proportion of handsets with lower margin is larger, whereas handset margin decreased to 1.4% in Q113 from 6.2% in Q112 and 1.8% Q412. The cost of handsets already included the fee to BrightStar, world leading device service provider. We believe that the handset margin would remain low due to intense market competition. Selling, General and Administrative Expenses (SG&A) SG&A significantly increased 13.6% QoQ and 25.1% YoY mainly due to one-time transactions, NEO write-off and provision adjustment for Jaidee SOS, affecting general administrative expenses and provision for bad debt respectively. Selling and Marketing Expenses for Q113 at THB 710 million decreased 9.4% QoQ and 8.7% YoY due to fewer marketing activities in Q113 compared to Q112 with Life Network campaign and Q412 with launches of new SIMs: SIM 1516 and SIM Patongkho. In addition, we suspended our marketing activities during NEO. Selling and marketing expenses are expected to increase due to the launch of 3G 2.1GHz but remain 3-4% to service revenues. In Q113, selling and marketing expenses were 3.0% to total revenues, decreasing from 3.5% in Q112. General Administrative Expenses in Q113 increased significantly to THB 2.1 billion, growing 10.5% QoQ and 24.4% YoY mainly from the NEO write-off of THB 500 million. Their percentage to total revenues stood at 10.0%, increasing from 8.7% in Q112. Provision for Bad Debt in Q113 at THB 391 million increased 389.3% QoQ and 1,145.9% YoY due to an impact from NEO resulting in significant increase in accounts receivable and one-time provision adjustment for Jaidee SOS prepaid service of THB 170 million. Provision for postpaid bad debt for Q113 increased to THB 176 million, from THB 27 million in Q112 and THB 75 million in Q412, which was 3.4% of postpaid revenue, higher than our comfortable level of 2.0%. We believed this was a temporary effect from NEO as the accounts receivable would return to normal by Q313. The provision for postpaid bad debt for this year shall be back to the same level as in Depreciation and Amortization of SG&A for Q113 increased 0.8% QoQ and 7.9% YoY as a result of the increased investment in IT system, sales and distribution channels and revamped service centers. D&A of SG&A to total revenues stood at 2.1% both in Q113, slightly increased from 2.0% in Q112. EBITDA and Net Profit EBITDA in Q113 was THB 7.5 billion, growing strongly 10.7% QoQ and 10.3% YoY, and EBITDA margin also improved on both QoQ and YoY. EBITDA margin for Q113 stood at 31.2%, increasing from 30.1% in Q112 and 27.7% in Q412, due to lower costs of services and less handset sales contribution. Net profit for Q113 amounted to THB 3.0 billion, increasing strongly QoQ at 17.7% and at 1.1% YoY as an effect from higher EBITDA and lower corporate income tax rate. Balance Sheet and Key Financial Information Total Assets at the end of Q113 stood at THB billion, increasing from THB billion at the end of Q412 mainly from the increase in cash and cash equivalents. Interest-Bearing Debt at the end of Q113 was THB 26.3 billion decreasing from THB 30.3 billion at the end of Q412 from loan repayment. Operating Cash Flow (defined as EBITDA - CAPEX) for Q113 was THB 5.9 billion, increasing 29.4% QoQ from higher EBITDA and lower CAPEX than Q412. CAPEX for Q113 stood at THB 1.2 billion, decreasing from THB 2.2 billion in Q412. We plan to have higher CAPEX for the rest of the year in order to achieve our 3G 2.1GHz population coverage at 30% by year end. 3
4 Income statement (THB million) Q112 Q412 Q113 %QoQ %YoY Voice 11,065 10,882 10, % -2.6% Postpaid 2,653 2,810 2, % 11.5% Prepaid 8,412 8,072 7, % -7.1% VAS 3,342 4,431 5, % 49.6% IR % 47.2% Others % 38.3% Service revenues ex. IC 15,504 16,693 17, % 11.8% IC revenue 3,729 3,742 3, % -2.3% Service revenues 19,232 20,435 20, % 9.1% Handsets and starter kits sales 3,194 3,690 2, % -9.1% Other operating income % -68.7% Total revenues 22,508 24,185 23, % 6.2% Cost of services (12,521) (13,985) (13,414) -4.1% 7.1% Regulatory (5,006) (5,384) (5,416) 0.6% 8.2% Network (842) (1,113) (953) -14.3% 13.1% IC (3,538) (3,493) (3,485) -0.2% -1.5% Others (936) (1,319) (1,121) -15.0% 19.7% Depreciation and amortization (2,199) (2,676) (2,439) -8.9% 10.9% Cost of handset and starter kits (2,954) (3,530) (2,805) -20.5% -5.0% Total costs (15,475) (17,515) (16,220) -7.4% 4.8% Gross profit 7,033 6,670 7, % 9.3% SG&A (2,944) (3,244) (3,683) 13.6% 25.1% Selling & marketing expenses (777) (783) (710) -9.4% -8.7% General administrative expenses (1,678) (1,891) (2,089) 10.5% 24.4% Provision for bad debt (31) (80) (391) 389.3% % Depreciation and amortization (457) (490) (494) 0.8% 7.9% Gain/Loss on foreign exchange (37) % % Interest income % -65.7% Other income % 40.6% EBIT 4,162 3,722 4, % 0.2% Financial cost (268) (327) (362) 10.6% 35.3% Income tax (900) (824) (781) -5.2% -13.2% Net profit for the period 2,995 2,571 3, % 1.1% EBITDA (THB million) Q112 Q412 Q113 %QoQ %YoY Net profit for the period 2,995 2,571 3, % 1.1% Finance costs % 35.1% Corporate income tax % -13.2% Depreciation expense % 2.8% Amortization expense 2,340 2,837 2, % 11.2% Interest income (79) (108) (27) 74.9% 65.8% Loss (gain) on foreign exchange 37 (24) (97) % % Loss on disposal of fixed assets and other N/A N/A EBITDA 6,777 6,757 7, % 10.3% 4
5 Statement of financial position (THB million) 2012 Q113 Cash and cash equivalent 4,705 9,709 Other current assets 12,265 11,681 Non-current assets 84,074 82,005 Total assets 101, ,395 Current liabilities 37,800 40,986 Non-current liabilities 28,398 28,467 Total liabilities 66,198 69,453 CONTACT US: TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION PLC. 319 Chamchuri Square, Phayathai Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok Shareholders equity 34,845 33,941 Total liabilities and shareholders equity 101, ,395 Outlook 2013 dtac s investment plan for is THB 34.0 billion to achieve 80% population coverage on 3G 2.1GHz, which is one year earlier than the NBTC s coverage requirement. We intend to finance this new investment by debt with net debt to EBITDA ratio target at approximately 2 times. Our dividend policy remains to pay minimum 80% of the company s net profit with an aim to pay quarterly. While we are working on expanding the new 3G 2.1GHz network, dtac customers can still enjoy best customer experience on our existing 2G modernized network and our nationwide expanded-to-5,200-sites 3G 850MHz network. Once the new 3G 2.1GHz network is launched, dtac will be the only network in Thailand operating at 3 networks, 1800MHz, 850 MHz and 2.1GHz, making us the operator with the widest bandwidth to deliver superior service quality and capacity. dtac will also be able to support the widest range of mobile devices. Our target launch date for the new 3G 2.1GHz network remains in the second quarter of In Q113, we upgraded our 3G 2.1GHz target to reach 30% population coverage by the end of As a result, our 2013 guidance is as follows: 1) High single digit revenue growth (maintained) 2) EBITDA margin in the range of 30% to 31% (maintained) 3) CAPEX at minimum of THB 12.5 billion (revised up from minimum of THB 8.0 billion) Investor Relations Tel: IR@dtac.co.th Website: Disclaimer Some statements made in this material are forward-looking statements with the relevant assumptions, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as may, will, expect, anticipate, intend, estimate, continue plan or other similar words. The statements are based on our management s assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and executives/staff do not control and cannot guarantee the relevance, timeliness, or accuracy of these statements. 5
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