IHS Technology. "Update Technological Mega-Trends"

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1 "Update Technological Mega-Trends"

2 Technology prognosis has a long tradition Wie wir im Jahr 2000 leben werden (German artist, 1908) Apple iphone 4 (2010)

3 1. The new landscape of Connected Devices

4 More plurality for media consumers, number of connected devices increasing rapidly Connected Device Installed Base Worldwide (m) Other Connected Devices FTA STBs BD players Smart TVs DMAs Pay-TV STBs Games Consoles Tablets PCs Smartphones

5 Screen Size (Diagonal in Inches) Connected Devices by screen size: Growing presence of very small screens (below 15 ) in households Average Screen Size for Connected Devices in 5 -Categories 110"-114" 90"-94" 80"-84" 70"-74" 60"-64" 50"-54" 40"-44" 30"-34" 20"-24" 10"-14" 0"-4" Shipments (m) 2012

6 Shipments (m) This contrasts with TVs, where all sizes over 40 inches are growing and all smaller sizes are falling, fast "-19" 20"-29" 30"-39" 40"-49" 50"-59" 60"-69" 70"-79" 80"-89" 90"-99" 100"-109" 110"-119"

7 So, TVs are getting bigger and small screens are getting more numerous

8 2. Compass for a Device Strategy

9 How did other Content industries deal with digital transition? Music Consumption vs Monetisation Western Europe: Music Transactions (m) Western Europe: Consumer Spend for Music ( Bln) Physical music* Digital music** Physical music* Digital music** *Physical music (audio only) covers the purchase of music (singles and albums) on physical formats including CD, LP and others (excludes music videos to avoid double counting with physical video) **Consumer spending generated from digital single and music album sales (not tracks within albums) combined via music services operating over the open internet, made on a retail basis and/or via a book-club subscription

10 Games in contrast is a digital success story Western Europe: Consumer Spend for Games ( Bln) New devices and open distribution platforms reach new consumer segments Broad product offering drives consumption Micro-Transactions revolutionized revenue generation Number of transaction channels to the consumer grew tremendously Physical games* Digital games** Mobile games*** *Physical games covers the purchase of software for all formats including TV consoles, handhelds and PCs / **Digital games includes PC multiplayer online games, PC casual games, PC social network games, Online TV console games transactions and service subscriptions, PC retail download and On-demand games / ***Mobile handsets only (includes smart /feature-phones and mobile browser games spend - excludes tablets)

Thinking about TV: You need to support your device ecosystem with content best to focus on key device types Pay TV: IP Video deployments by OS 40 35 Relative to

11 Thinking about TV: You need to support your device ecosystem with content best to focus on key device types Pay TV: IP Video deployments by OS Relative to their connected installed bases, ios and consoles are well-represented in Pay TV multiscreen Android ios Xbox PS3 PC Samsung LG Panasonic Roku

12 How to pick a device? Perhaps one of the first questions is how is video being consumed? Linear plus timeshifted linear (DVR) still account for around 90% of video viewing in % 92% Broadcast TV Viewing 84% 76% Time 82% Broadcast TV Viewing 92% Time BROADCAST TV VIEWING TIME 84% BROADCAST TV VIEWING TIME Linear TV DVR (time-shifted linear TV) 92% Over-the-top Video-on-Demand Pay TV Video-on-Demand 13% 11% 10% 5%

13 Not all devices are created equal. The smartphone is perhaps peripheral to the video discussion Average Views per device type BBC iplayer Smartphone Tablet PC TV even while it dominates the consumer electronics market! Smartphone All other CE

14 3. Spectres: YouTube

15 Bln Views Original Content is a small but growing part of YouTube US: YouTube Views (Bln) und % Views of Original Channels 1,60% 1,40% 1,20% 1,00% 0,80% 0,60% 0,40% 0,20% 0,00% YouTube Views % Views Original Channels

16 vevo machinima Fullscreen TGS IGN Alloy XMediaDigital RPM muyap SocialBlade Collective tseriesmusic ygent Indmusic wizdeo Movieclips russiatoday NBA MadeInEtaly TopBeautyBlog IDG_Germany Iricom StarIndia gv_expertvillage OnAir MediakraftNetworks mondominishows desimad OmniaMediaCo peteldg RightsterEntertainment splashnewsonline diaganolview Break SCEA Mitu SpinninRecords NextNewNetworks howcast sment NHL Diwanvideos rai fremantlebgt TimeWarner BentPixels MinstryOfSoundUk AyFilmYapim BMVEntertainment StyleHaul YouTube colonized by various offerings. But professional Music-Videos dominate. Top 50 YouTube Channels by monthly Views (m), Feb/March Professional UGC Mixed Source: IHS, based on Social Social Blade

17 F D UK Consumption: Top 12 Channels make up 2/3 of views Share of Views of European Original Channels (m) % of Channels, 73% of Views Top 12 Channels Views (m) Truthloader Daily Mix Jamie Oliver's Food Tube /Football Copa90 BBC Earth Ponk Motorvision Taratara On Air Doctissimo Play The Very Watch Studio Bagel

18 YouTube is still lacking significant audience Time per Channel/Person/Month (hh:mm:ss) - UK 38:24:00 33:36:00 28:48:00 24:00:00 19:12:00 14:24:00 9:36:00 4:48:00 0:00:00 Sources: IHS, BARB, UKOM

19 5. Wearables: Trend seeking business model(s)

20 Wearables are not a new phenomena

21 Wearables span multiple device and content ecosystems app, OS and device compatibility is crucial Android Wear Sony Smartwatch Moto 360 LG G Tizen Black Berry Android/ Google Play Samsung Gear i m Watch Google Glass Pebble FitBit Jawbone-UP ios App Store Nike Fuelband Windows Phone?

22 Revenues from Wearables relatively low sustainable business models missing Global Revenues for Wearables & Connected Devices ($m) Wearables Digital Media Adapters Game Consoles Tablets TVs STBs Mobile Phones

23 Key Megatrend: Wearables as sensores in collection of user data User Base (m) by Universe Apple itunes Accounts w/ Credit Card Amazon Active User Accounts Google Android Activations Facebook Monthly Active Users WeChat/Weixin-Users Q Q3 2013

24 What s next? From 1930.

Future of Digital Home Entertainment

Future of Digital Home Entertainment This report analyzes trends, technologies and business models of the enablers and providers of digital content. It examines six meta-themes that can be used as a template