Metro DWDM Market Opportunities, Strategies, and Forecasts, 2003 to Metro DWDM. Picture by Susie Eustis MOUNTAINS OF OPPORTUNITY

Transcription

1 Metro DWDM Market Opportunities, Strategies, and Forecasts, 2003 to 2008 Metro DWDM Picture by Susie Eustis MOUNTAINS OF OPPORTUNITY WinterGreen Research, Inc. Lexington, Massachusetts

2 CHECK OUT THESE KEY TOPICS METRO DWDM MARKET SHARES METRO DWDM MARKET FORECASTS SERVICE PROVIDER METRO DWDM MARKET Fundemental Changes of Metro Optical Networking Economics DWDM Applications XML Challenges For An Organization Increases Exponentially NETWORK APPLIANCES DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING ENVIRONMENTS INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR STANDARDS (ISO) WAVE BAND ARCHITECTURES METRO DWDM GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES WIRE SPEED XML PROCESSING METRO DWDM MARKET DYNAMICS XML SWITCHING MARKET CHALLENGES METRO DWDM LINE SYSTEMS OPPORTUNITY ABOUNDS OPPORTUNITY ABOUNDS WinterGreen Research, Inc. Lexington, Massachusetts

3 Metro DWDM Market Opportunities, Strategies, and Forecasts, 2003 to 2008 With the growth of the Internet, demand for high bandwidth continues to increase. The ability to increase transport capacity is needed to permit development of consumer markets for video and data services. High bandwidth is needed by business to improve productivity, permit working from home, and increase supply chain efficiency. Metro DWDM markets are shifting as the prices for laser components come down. Optical micro components promise to include more integrated functionality, at less cost per component, increasing the efficiency of metro DWDM systems. Metro DWDM brings innovative technologies to the broadband market. Platforms are evolving that extend transmission systems into access, supporting the engagement of multiple value added services on DWDM platforms. There is a convergence of transmission and digital loop carrier platform technology. Companies need to have a technology that combines both time-to-market and time-tovolume production. Market advantage is achieved by a sustainable product offering. Metro DWDM represents a major market shift impacting DWDM inventory and products, creating a differentiation between products and a major product advantage for companies with affordable lasers and components. IP traffic is growing faster than IP service revenue. Economic law states that optical expenditure per bit must decline faster than revenue per bit. A change to the business model is needed. Service provider metro DWDM equipment markets are stung by the fact that revenue persists to come from landline voice services. The service provider revenue per bit is down 51%. Traffic is up 113%. Revenue is up 4%. Optical metro transport equipment markets are projected to have growth through Three optical segments: DWDM Metro, SONET/SDH MS, and optical switches are forecast to resume growth in 2004 and grow through Growth of these three segments will not be sufficient to offset further decline of long haul DWDM terrestrial markets. Metro applications of optical equipment are expected to recover prior to long haul applications, as service providers continue to deploy revenue-generating connections to consumers.

4 Companies Profiled Market Leaders Nortel Networks Ciena Lucent Technologies Alcatel Tellabs Siemens Sorrento NEC Other Market Participants ADVA Optical JDS Uniphase Agilent Technologies Huawei Avici Systems Lightbit Avonex Lumentis Cisco Manticom Networks Corning Marconi ECI Telecom Optical Micro-Machines Ericsson PacketLight Fujitsu Optical Transport Solutions Sycamore Networks Hewlett Packard Telect

5 Metro DWDM Market Strategies and Forecasts, REPORT METHODOLOGY THIS IS THE TWO-HUNDRETH REPORT IN A SERIES OF MARKET RESEARCH REPORTS THAT PROVIDE FORECASTS IN COMMUNICATIONS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, THE INTERNET, COMPUTER, SOFTWARE, AND TELEPHONE EQUIPMENT. THE PROJECT LEADERS TAKE DIRECT RESPONSIBILITY FOR WRITING AND PREPARING EACH REPORT. THEY HAVE SIGNIFICANT EXPERIENCE PREPARING INDUSTRY STUDIES. FORECASTS ARE BASED ON PRIMARY RESEARCH AND PROPRIETARY DATA BASES. FORECASTS REFLECT ANALYSIS OF THE MARKET TRENDS IN THE SEGMENT AND RELATED SEGMENTS. UNIT AND DOLLAR SHIPMENTS ARE ANALYZED THROUGH CONSIDERATION OF DOLLAR VOLUME OF EACH MARKET PARTICIPATION IN THE SEGMENT. INSTALLED BASE ANALYSIS AND UNIT ANALYSIS IS BASED ON INTERVIEWS AND AN INFORMATION SEARCH. MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS INCLUDES CONVERSATIONS WITH KEY CUSTOMERS OF PRODUCTS, INDUSTRY SEGMENT LEADERS, MARKETING DIRECTORS, DISTRIBUTORS, LEADING MARKET PARTICIPANTS, OPINION LEADERS, AND COMPANIES SEEKING TO DEVELOP MEASURABLE MARKET SHARE. OVER 200 IN DEPTH INTERVIEWS ARE CONDUCTED FOR EACH REPORT WITH A BROAD RANGE OF KEY PARTICIPANTS AND INDUSTRY LEADERS IN THE MARKET SEGMENT. YOU MUST HAVE THIS STUDY

6 Metro DWDM Market Opportunities, Strategies, and Forecasts, 2003 to 2008 Table of Contents METRO DWDM EXECUTIVE SUMMARY METRO DWDM EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Metro DWDM Growth Opportunities Service Provider Metro DWDM Market Metro DWDM Market Shares Metro DWDM Market Forecast, Dollars ES-1 ES-1 ES-2 ES-3 ES-5 METRO DWDM DYNAMICS AND MARKET DESCRIPTION 1. METRO DWDM MARKET DYNAMICS AND MARKET DESCRIPTION Metro DWDM Market Dynamics Metro Integration Implementations Fundamental Changes Of Metro Optical Networking Economics More Efficient To Put Together A Telecommunications Network Delay In Spending For Capital Equipment Metro Markets DWDM Applications Metro Versus Long-Haul WDM Challenges of Telecommunications Networks Wirespeed XML Processing XML Processing and METRO DWDM Application Routing XML Web Services Wire Speed XML Processing XML Business Process e-services XML Challenges For An Organization Increase Exponentially Next Generation Internet Software XML Accelerator Core Technology XML Compression XML Compression Market Driving Forces XML Switching Accelerator Cards IT Department Challenges Next Generation Of Internet Software Network Appliances Switching Technology Enabled With XML Wirespeed Compression Technology Distributed Computing Environments Need For Greater Sophistication Of Integration Technology Business Process Management (BPM) Business Process Management Benefits Analyzing Real-Time Data Flowing Through The Integration System XML Security 1-47

7 1.17 Business-Critical Applications Over The Web Market Challenges 1-50 METRO DWDM MARKET SHARES AND MARKET FORECASTS 2. METRO DWDM MARKET SHARES AND MARKET FORECASTS Metro DWDM Growth Opportunities Service Provider Metro DWDM Market DWDM Metro DWDM Metro Market Shares Metro DWDM and CWDM Market Forecast, Dollars Service Provider Ethernet Technology Metro DWDM and CWDM Market Forecast, Ports Lighting Dark Fiber Metro DWDM Applications Optical Add-Drop Multiplexers (OADM) Metro DWDM Pricing Metro DWDM Network Building Cycles 2-26 METRO DWDM PRODUCT DESCRIPTIONS 3. METRO DWDM PRODUCT DESCRIPTION Metro DWDM Line Systems Nortel Metro DWDM Optical Networks Nortel OPTera Metro Portfolio Nortel Metro High Speed Point-To-Point Backbone Service NTT / Nortel Metro BT / Nortel Metro SAN Alcatel Metro DWDM Alcatel Metro DWDM Market Challenges Alcatel CWDM System Alcatel Metro DWDM Carries Bandwidth Coming From Multiple Services Alcatel Metro DWDM Bandwidth Alcatel 1692 Metro Span Edge (8-Channel Metropolitan CWDM System) Alcatel Optical Protection Alcatel DWDM Storage Area Network Alcatel 1692 Metro Span Edge Enterprise Customer Positioning Ciena Metropolitan Networking Ciena ONLINE Metro CIENA MultiWave Metro Ciena MultiWave Metro One Ciena On Line Metro Platform Ciena Back-Up Banking System Ciena Lightworks Services Ciena LightWorks Services Approach Ciena Metro Argonne National Laboratory Lumentis Lumentis Doubles CWDM Capacity ADVA AG Optical Networking Tellabs 7120 Ethernet Tellabs Metro Interoffice Transport Tellabs Storage Area Networks (SANs) 3-46

8 3.8 Lucent Metro Optical Solutions Lucent Optical Networking (EON) Sorrento Networks GigaMux Sorrento / LuxN Cable MSO Data Access Services ADVA ADVA Carrier-Class Infrastructure Secure, High-Speed Private Optical Network Service Cisco Metro Cisco Metro ONS Cisco Metro 1500 DWDM Cisco Incorporates Photonics Technology Innovation With The MSTP Strategy Marconi PacketLight Integrated Metro Optical Products PacketLight Metro DWDM Products NEC DWDM / Tellium Optical Switches Manticom Networks DWDM Metro Cable Industry Transport Solution ECI Telecom XDM XDM Advantage Mesh Architecture XDM Product Description 3-73 METRO DWDM TECHNOLOGY 4. METRO DWDM TECHNOLOGY Current State of IP Convergence International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Wirespeed Integration Engines Tunable Lasers Multiple Optical Channels Wave-Band Architectures Benefit Of Wavelength Conversion Effective Route Length Signal Blocking Probability Band Components Dispersion Compensation Wavelength Conversion All-Optical Networks 4-23 METRO DWDM COMPANY PROFILES 5. METRO DWDM COMPANY PROFILES ADVA Optical Adva Global Marketing Strategy Adva Solutions Adva Strategic Alliances Adva Regional Focus ADVA Product Positioning ADVA Business Model ADVA Optical Networking Revenues ADVA Coarse Wavelength Division Multiplexing (CWDM) ADVA Optical Networking ADVA Market Topography ADVA Focus On Storage Network And Ethernet-Based Technology Agilent Technologies 5-8

9 5.3 Alcatel Alcatel VND Division Markets Digital Loop Carrier (DLC) Multi-Service Access Solutions Fourth Quarter Business Update: Alcatel Participation In Communications Network Equipment Markets Alcatel Metro DWDM Alcatel and Optics Alcatel and Tellabs / Sprint DWDM Metro Equipment Alcatel Fiber Optic Submarine Cable Repair Avici Systems Avici Systems Research And Development Avonex Ciena BT / Ciena Strategic Partnership Ciena / WaveSmith Networks Ciena Revenue Ciena Acquires ONI Systems Cisco Cis co Acquisitions and Investments Cisco Strategic Alliances Corning Corning Low-Loss Optical Fiber Corning Telecommunications Segment ECI Telecom ECI Telecom Revenue ECI Telecom Customers ECI Telecom Next -Generation Intelligent Optical and Transmission Solutions Ericsson Ericsson Partners Ericsson Positioning Ericsson 3G Positioning Ericsson CDMA Ericsson Wi-Fi Ericsson Mobile handsets Ericsson Broadband Access Unit Fibre-To-The-Home Ericsson / Marconi Partnership Fujitsu Optical Transport Solutions Fujitsu DWDM Fujitsu Network Communications Optical Transport Solutions Hewlett Packard Hewlett Packard Positioning Blade Server Positioning Leverages Optical Networks HP Blade Server Partner Program Hewlett Packard / Compaq JDS Uniphase Huawei Huawei Global Operations Huawei ADSL Positioning Lightbit Lightbit WaveXchange Operating At Speeds Of 10Gb/s And Greater Lightbit Next Generation DWDM Transmission Systems Lucent Technologies Lucent Service Provider Network Positioning 5-51

10 Lucent Optical Networking Lucent Service Provider Network Positioning Lucent Technologies Strategic Positioning Business Forces Driving Change For Lucent Lucent Metro Optical Solutions Lucent Digital Loop Carrier Lucent High Density Multi Service Access Platform Lucent AnyMedia Access System Lumentis Lumentis Architecture Lumentis Eliminating Amplifiers Lumentis Performance and flexibility Lumentis Dynamic Networking Lumentis CWDM and DWDM Lumentis Storage market Lumentis Funding Manticom Networks Marconi Marconi Revenue Marconi Customers Marconi Financial Restructuring NEC NEC Solutions (America) NEC USA NEC Long Haul Submarine DWDM Systems NEC Integration Of Computers And Communications NEC Handsets NEC Handset Customers NEC Third Quarter Revenue Of The Fiscal Year Ending March 31, NEC Networks NEC Solutions (America) Nortel Networks Nortel Product Development Nortel Core Business Segments Nortel Optical Networks Nortel Strategic Alliances And Acquisitions Nortel Service Optical Networks Vision Of Framework Nortel Networks Ethernet Over DWDM Nortel Surviving The Downturn Nortel Networks Corporate Strategy Nortel Customers Nortel Product Differentiation Optical Micro-Machines PacketLight PacketLight Networks Access Platform Sycamore Networks Sorrento Sorrento Networks Revenue First Quarter Fiscal Sorrento Customers Sorrento Networks Transport Of Video-On-Demand Services Telect Tellabs 5-97

11 Tellabs Customers Tellabs Products Tellabs Financials Tellabs Optical Networking Products Tellabs Next -Gen SDH and Managed Access Systems 5-102

12 List of Tables and Figures METRO DWDM EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Table ES-1 Metro DWDM Growth Opportunities Figure ES-2 Worldwide Metro DWDM Market Shares, Dollars, First Half 2003 Figure ES-3 Worldwide Metro DWDM Market Forecasts, Dollars, ES-1 ES-4 ES-6 METRO DWDM MARKET DYNAMICS AND MARKET DESCRIPTION Table Key Mission Of Metro DWDM Table Metro DWDM Architecture Available From Multiple Vendors Table DWDM Applications Table XML Integration Key Solutions Benefits Table XML Business Process e-services Functions Table XML Business Process e-services Features Table XML Business Process e-services Features Table XML Security Features Table XML Accelerator Core Technology Table XML Compression Market Driving Forces Table IT Department Challenges Table XML Accelerator Solution Issues Table XML Accelerator Solution Constraints Table XML Web Services Security Functions Table Primary Aims Of Business Process Management (BPM) Table Benefits Of Business Process Management Table Business Process Management (BPM) Software Challenges

13 METRO DWDM MARKET SHARES AND MARKET FORECASTS Table Metro DWDM Growth Opportunities Figure Worldwide Metro DWDM Market Shares, Dollars, 2002 Table Metro DWDM and CWDM Market Shares, Worldwide, 2002 Figure Worldwide Metro DWDM Market Shares, Dollars, First Half 2003 Table Metro DWDM Market Shares, Worldwide, First Half 2003 Figure Worldwide Metro DWDM Market Forecasts, Dollars, Figure Worldwide CWDM Market Forecasts, Dollars, Table Worldwide Metro DWDM and CWDM Market Forecasts, Dollars, Table Service Provider Metro Ethernet Technology Functions Figure Worldwide CWDM Market Forecasts, Ports, Figure Worldwide Metro DWDM Market Forecasts, Ports, Table Worldwide Metro DWDM and CWDM Market Forecasts, Ports, Table Worldwide DWDM Market Forecasts, Ports, METRO DWDM PRODUCT DESCRIPTIONS Table Nortel OPTera Metro Key Features Table NTT / Nortel Metro Services Table Alcatel Metro DWDM Positioning Table Alcatel Metro DWDM Functions Table Alcatel 1692 Metro Span Edge Key Features Table Alcatel 1692 Metro Span Edge Key Benefits Table Alcatel Storage Area Networks (SAN) Positioning Table Alcatel 1692 Metro Span Edge Positioning Table Alcatel Metro DWDM Functions Table Ciena Metropolitan Transport Family

14 Table Ciena LightWorks Architecture Functions Table Tellabs 7130 Applications Table Lucent Metro Customer Positioning Table Cisco Metro DWDM Positioning Table Cisco ONS Metro DWDM Solution Functions Table Cisco Metro DWDM Positioning Table Marconi Key Benefits Of The MLS Table Marconi Next -Generation Metro And Backbone Transport Table XDM Platform Shelves METRO DWDM TECHNOLOGY Table Current State of IP Convergence Table Metro DWDM Data Service Dilemmas Table Metro DWDM Data Service Trends Table Ethernet Services Delivery Table ISO s Open Systems Interconnection (OSI) Model Layer Protocols Purpose Table Non-Telecom Players With Network Business Model Developments Table Dispersion Compensation Key Requirements METRO DWDM COMPANY PROFILES Table Alcatel Metro DWDM Positioning Table Alcatel Terrestrial Optical Networking Strategy Table Alcatel Submarine Optical Networking Strategy Table ECI Telecom Products Table HP Ecosystem Of Compatible Blade Server Products Table Business Forces Driving Change Table Lucent Broadband Access Solutions

15 Table Lucent Broadband Digital Loop Carrier Positioning Table Lucent AnyMedia Access System Family of Products Table Nortel Product Development Table Nortel Optical Networks DWDM Competitive Issues

16 ABOUT THE COMPANY WINTERGREEN RESEARCH, FOUNDED IN 1985, PROVIDES STRATEGIC MARKET ASSESSMENTS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS, COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT, HEALTH CARE, AND ADVANCED COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY. INDUSTRY REPORTS FOCUS ON OPPORTUNITIES THAT WILL EXPAND EXISTING MARKETS OR DEVELOP MAJOR NEW MARKETS. THE REPORTS ASSESS NEW PRODUCT AND SERVICE POSITIONING STRATEGIES, NEW AND EVOLVING TECHNOLOGIES, AND TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT ON PRODUCTS, SERVICES, AND MARKETS. MARKET SHARES ARE PROVIDED. LEADING MARKET PARTICIPANTS ARE PROFILED, AND THEIR MARKETING STRATEGIES, ACQUISITIONS, AND STRATEGIC ALLIANCES ARE DISCUSSED. THE PRINCIPALS OF WINTERGREEN RESEARCH HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND ADVANCED COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY MARKETS FOR OVER 30 YEARS. ABOUT THE PRINCIPAL AUTHORS ELLEN T. CURTISS, TECHNICAL DIRECTOR, CO-FOUNDER OF WINTERGREEN RESEARCH, CONDUCTS STRATEGIC AND MARKET ASSESSMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY-BASED INDUSTRIES. PREVIOUSLY SHE WAS A MEMBER OF THE STAFF OF ARTHUR D. LITTLE, INC., FOR 23 YEARS, MOST RECENTLY AS VICE PRESIDENT OF ARTHUR D. LITTLE DECISION RESOURCES, SPECIALIZING IN STRATEGIC PLANNING AND MARKET DEVELOPMENT SERVICES. SHE IS A GRADUATE OF BOSTON UNIVERSITY AND THE PROGRAM FOR MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT AT HARVARD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION. SHE IS THE AUTHOR OF RECENT STUDIES ON WORLDWIDE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS, THE TOP TEN INTERNET EQUIPMENT COMPANIES, THE TOP TEN CONTRACT MANUFACTURING COMPANIES, AND THE TOP TEN TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS. SUSAN EUSTIS, PRESIDENT, CO-FOUNDER OF WINTERGREEN RESEARCH, HAS DONE RESEARCH IN COMMUNICATIONS AND COMPUTER MARKETS AND APPLICATIONS. SHE HOLDS SEVERAL PATENTS IN MICROCOMPUTING AND PARALLEL PROCESSING. SHE HAS THE ORIGINAL PATENTS IN ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES. SHE HAS NEW PATENT APPLICATIONS IN FORMAT VARYING, MULITPROCESSING, AND ELECTRONIC VOTING. SHE IS THE AUTHOR OF RECENT STUDIES OF THE REGIONAL BELL OPERATING COMPANIES' MARKETING STRATEGIES, INTERNET EQUIPMENT, BIOMETRICS, A STUDY OF INTERNET EQUIPMENT, WORLDWIDE TELECOMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT, TOP TEN TELECOMMUNICATIONS, DIGITAL LOOP CARRIER, WEB HOSTING, WEB SERVICES, AND APPLICATION INTEGRATION MARKETS. MS. EUSTIS IS A GRADUATE OF BARNARD COLLEGE.

17 Return To: ORDER FORM WinterGreen Research, Inc. 6 Raymond Street Lexington, MA USA Phone: (781) Fax: (781) or (781) PLEASE ENTER MY ORDER FOR: Metro DWDM Market Opportunities, Strategies, and Forecasts ALL REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE IN EITHER PRINT OR PDF- PDF PRINT ENCLOSED IS MY CHECK FOR $2,800 FOR SINGLE COPY, $3,800 FOR WEB SITE POSTING PLEASE BILL MY COMPANY USING P.O. NUMBER PLEASE CHARGE MY MASTERCARD/VISA/AMERICAN EXPRESS CARD NUMBER EXP. DATE If charging to a Credit card you may the order form, but not the card information Fax or Call with credit card information - Do not send card number as - You may send the order as ADDITIONAL $375 (EXTRA COPY PRICE IN EFFECT ONLY WITH INITIAL ORDER) NAME TITLE SIGNATURE COMPANY DIVISION ADDRESS CITY STATE / ZIP TELEPHONE FAX PLEASE NOTE: RESIDENTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT MUST INCLUDE APPROPRIATE SALES TAX SUBSCRIBERS OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES MUST PROVIDE PREPAYMENT IN U.S. FUNDS