Pervasive Collaborative Computing

Transcription

1 Pervasive Collaborative Computing Jawad Khaki Corporate Vice President Microsoft Corporation Windows Networking & Communications Microsoft Microsoft Corporation. Corporation. All All rights rights reserved. reserved.

2 Introduction Networking Trends Pervasive Collaborative Computing The Dream Network New Engaging Communication Experiences Next Generation Device Ecosystem Next Generation Windows 2 2

3 Networking Trends: Enterprise Climate >99% of PCs are networked in US large and medium organizations 75M PCs WW in large organizations; 55M PCs WW in medium organizations Tablet PC and laptops growing over 21% of total PC sales. By % will have built-in wireless interface. Cell phones, PDAs important but second to mobile PCs IT Pros focus on efficiency and value; Business decisions targeted at customer satisfaction Public WLAN-Hotspots grow to a forecasted 120,000 WW by 2007 Technology IP infrastructure becoming central to office networks Steady investment in IP-based phone systems, replacing PBX: $7.5B in 2006 Widespread wireless LAN adoption: 24% of LORG offer onsite wireless access Security and standards are challenges Gigabit networking is forecasted to grow substantially: $8.9B WW spending in 2006 Empowering employees to work anywhere, anytime, on any device Information access Communication Collaboration VPN economical solution for remote access Source: 2002 MSFT PC Tracker; Frost & Sullivan (2002), TeleAnalytics May 02, Gartner Dataquest (July 2002) 3 3

4 Networking Trends: Small Business Climate About 1/3 of US small businesses are networked Dial-up is dominant. 25% of US small businesses have broadband connectivity 45M WW small businesses. 145M PC WW install base. PC churn is slower than in enterprise Overall, small business tends to be very pragmatic about technology investments No IT staff makes channel partners critical for advice, implementation and maintenance Technology Peer-based networking is very important Reliable, ease-to-use, integrated solutions are essential Small businesses need to share. Mobility growing within small businesses Wireless LANs promise convenient deployment and an affordable option Real-time communications and CRM have great potential Files Peripherals Internet Connection Source: 2002 MSFT PC Tracker; MS study 2002, AMI October

5 Networking Trends: Home Climate Substantial opportunity for growth in Home market: Only 1 of 6 HHs WW own a PC 227M home PCs WW: Makes up 44% of entire WW PC install base 64% of US HH have Internet connection. 75% use dial-up is connection method Home networking still in embryonic stages. 1/3 of US HH have multiple PC. Only 10% are networked. Broadband adoption is hindered until end-users are convinced of the value to migrate from dial-up Technology Too much choice, lack of prescriptive guidance and complexity are barriers to adoption Wireless LANs promise convenient deployment and an affordable option Security and content concerns Distributing entertainment experiences within the home will drive future home networks Quality of Service is essential. Interesting device integration scenarios The Home PC is moving out of the den and into the living room. Digital Entertainment Multi-Player Gaming Rich Communications Working from home Source: 2002 MSFT PC Tracker; Frost & Sullivan (2002), TeleAnalytics May 02, Gartner Dataquest (July 2002) 5 5

6 Windows Evolution GUI Wave Windows 3.1, 95 Internet Wave Windows 98, 2000 Digital Decade Windows XP PC Wave MS-DOS Cumulative WW PC Shipments (millions)

7 The Connected World Expands the digital horizon Personal Computing Communication Personal Digital Assistants Web Web Services Consumer Electronics Entertainment Storage Business Equipment Servers 7

8 Redefining the way we work play communicate

9 The Vision Pervasive Collaborative Computing Dream Network New Engaging Communication Experiences Next Generation Device Eco-system 9 9

10 Dream Network What is our dream? Easy-to-deploy and use, always available, secure, scalable and manageable A network that is more than just a data conduit Integrated data, voice, video leading to new digital experiences Ubiquitous peer-to-peer connectivity IPv6 addresses existing network challenges NATs, firewalls, and proxies blocking connectivity XML/SOAP-based web services 10 10

11 Dream Network Social Implications: Always on, high bandwidth connectivity redefine where people work and get services People and businesses online and available more Socializing and productivity will blend Business Implications: Converged communications infrastructure Demand for next generation infrastructure products: IPv6, web services, peer-peer, network devices Opportunities for new network services Key Challenges: IPv6 deployment The chicken and the egg dilemma Trustworthy computing Mobility across diverse networks CPU & memory bandwidth need to drive multiple gigabit pipes Enhancing today s protocols to scale/adapt to these bandwidths Architecture Implications: Smart integration of networking technologies (i.e. wireless/wired) Protection against security threats Smarter applications that deal with unreliable and costly wireless networks Implementation that scales from lowspeed networks to multi-gigabit LANs 11

12 IPv6 Progress ?? Future Industry IPv4 Ocean, IPv6 islands Opportunity in the home Enterprise deployments Deployment in other parts of the world IPv6 ocean, IPv4 islands Dual-stack important for backward compatibility Pilot deployments in Asia Windows Windows XP SP1 Windows Server 2003 Windows CE.NET Transparent connectivity via 6to4, IPv6 NAT traversal, ISATAP, P2P Windows & Microsoft applications natively support IPv6 Adoption by top tier industry applications Your potential! Windows has the necessary support for IPv6 applications today! 12 12

13 New Engaging Communication Experiences Real-Time Communications (RTC) Instant messaging, voice, video Real-time game play / collaboration Collaboration Project workspaces solving a goal Sharing your files with other people Content Distribution Concert, company meeting, class Distribution of product updates 13 13

14 New Engaging Experiences Social Implications: Behavior changes with communication & entertainment Richer online presence my content is always available Privacy data protection Reliability still a concern Big Brother concerns magnified Business Implications: Productivity improvements Remote participation Better, richer collaboration Empowerment to share and monetize content easily Key Challenges: End-to-end connectivity Trustworthy computing Pervasive wireless & broadband Overcoming existing myths NATs offer network security Peer-to-peer bad, costly, etc. Architecture Implications: Requires symmetric broadband Applications must leverage IPv6 Privacy issues must be resolved Protection against attack needed Put user in control 14

15 5 8 8 The Even More Essential PC moving from numbers and text to sights and sounds PC will become a vital part of everyday life Cell Phone TV Web Pads PC will enhance all communication experiences Digital Video Camera Security HiFi Audio PC will become the center for personal information, digital memories, and entertainment Phone & Voic Video Conferencing Pocket PCs Games Internet Auto PC 15 15

16 Devices: Growth and Excitement Online Listening to Music 42M WW Internet Users 19% Growth in 2002 DVD Players 78M WW Households 109% Growth in 2002 Broadband Adoption 60% South Korea 15% North America in 2002 Digital Cameras/ Camcorders 73M WW Households 44% Growth in 2002 GSM Subscribers 684M WW April 2002 Digital TV 5.8M WW Installed Base 179% Growth in 2002 Sources: Photofinishing News-2002, Lyra Research-2002, Gartner Dataquest-2002, ebrain Market Research-2002, Roper Reports-2002, Microsoft Internal Research- 2002, Cahners In-Stat-2002, Pyramid Research-2002, GSM.org, Source-Point 2002, In-Stat/MDR 2002, Morgan Stanley

17 Device and Media Ecosystem Infrastructure Content Devices Digital convergence is Breaking down barriers between sectors Bringing worlds together 17 17

18 Next Generation Device Ecosystem Goes beyond traditional PC peripheral New consumer experiences and solutions Assumes network connectivity for device More than a device, solution focused E.g. not a projector, whiteboard or telephone but the complete electronic meeting room Manageable, configurable, very low TCO 18 18

19 Universal Plug And Play (UPnP) Device interoperability architecture Dynamic discovery protocol Standardized descriptions Programmatic control State change notifications Universal Plug and Play Forum (UPnP) Industry consortium to define standards-based device implementations

20 UPnP Momentum Broad industry support for UPnP 555 forum members 13 working committees Networking Infrastructure, Consumer Electronic Devices, Home Automation, Mobile Devices, More devices in market every day Windows fueling the new device wave 20 20

21 Next Generation Device Ecosystem Social Implications: Increased relevance & demand for connected appliances/devices New meaning to It has to work and customer support Business Implications: Exploit devices/pc synergy Smarter devices enhance the PC PC enhances devices Industry cooperation needed to realize scenarios Key Challenges: Ubiquitous, easy to use networking Outside the box thinking to exploit convergence opportunity End-to-end scenario design Architecture Implications: IPv6 is the coin of exchange Authorization and authentication Integration with existing infrastructure Operation in absence of infrastructure Quality of service essential for convergence 21

22 The Next Generation Windows Mobility Personal Empowerment Entertainment Communication Fundamentals 22 22

23 Your potential. Our passion. Thank You.